Bills vs Dolphins: Week 15 Preview and Keys to the Game

This Sunday, the 5-8 Buffalo Bills return home to face the 4-9 Miami Dolphins in a contest that will help to determine who finishes the 2011 season in the basement of the AFC East.

The Bills are trying to end a six-game losing streak, while the Dolphins will be adjusting to life without head coach Tony Sparano, who was just fired this past week. The Dolphins promoted secondary coach Todd Bowles to become the interim head coach.

This contest does not appear to be close to selling out, so the game will probably be blacked out in western New York. With the way that the Bills have played lately, maybe the local blackout is not such a terrible thing.

The Bills need a win to restore some confidence on the team, as well as to send a message to the Dolphins that they are not willing to be pushed around like the Dolphins did to them in Miami in Week 11.

We will now address some key issues with the Bills and discuss the keys to this week's game.

Thoughts on Bills vs Chargers

Due to an early flight out of Southern California last Sunday, I wasn't able to get out the five things we learned article after the Bills versus Chargers game. I did attend the game in person and was humbled by the way the Bills played.

I could have just as easily written "humiliated," so just take your pick.

The Bills didn't play with much emotion, passion or heart in the game. The only sparks of life came from the Marcell Dareus sack, Steve Johnson gaining over 100 yards on four catches, the Byron Scott fumble recovery in the end zone for the Bills' only touchdown of the game and the play of Kelvin Sheppard, who led the team with 14 tackles.

That was it. Nobody else impressed me, especially Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Fitzpatrick threw the ball with little confidence, made poor decisions with the ball and just didn't seem to resemble the same player that we grew to admire so much in the first seven games of the 2011 season.

The Bills fans were beautiful, though. There were thousands that showed up for the tailgating party before the game. There were hundreds of Bills fans that attended a party hosted by Andre Reed in the Gas Lamp district of San Diego on Saturday night. The spirit of the Bills fans is unquestioned and they still believe in the team.

If you ever have your doubts about the team, all you need to do is attend one function with tons of Bills fans in attendance, and you quickly realize why you are a Bills fan for life.

Injury Report for This Sunday

As far as injuries go, it appears that Miami may actually have more guys banged up this week than the Bills do.

Miami

Did not participate: T Jake Long (back), LB Koa Misi (shoulder), QB Matt Moore (head, neck)

Limited participation: S Yeremiah Bell (foot), G Vernon Carey (ankle), TE Anthony Fasano (ribs)

Full participation: CB Vontae Davis (neck)

Buffalo

Did not participate: TE Scott Chandler (ankle), K Dave Rayner (groin)

Limited participation: CB Aaron Williams (calf)

Chan Gailey has stated that Scott Chandler seems unlikely to play this weekend. The Bills hope that Dave Rayner will be okay, as they just put Rian Lindell on the I.R. this past week.

Update on Miami Dolphins

Dolphins starting quarterback Matt Moore is suffering this week from head and neck injuries, so he did not practice on Wednesday. Instead, the Dolphins gave first-team reps in practice to Pat Devlin, who is the quarterback of their practice squad.

The Dolphins' backup quarterback is now ex-Bills QB J.P. Losman, who recently joined the team, but doesn't know their offense yet.

If Moore does wind up starting, but gets banged up, it is not out of the question that Losman could be pressed into playing. That would make for interesting drama in its own right.

The Dolphins this year resemble the Bills team of 2010. The Dolphins lost their first seven games, but have gone 4-2 over their last six games. That sounds almost exactly like how the Bills 2010 season went.

Reggie Bush has reached 100 yards rushing in the last two games, so the Bills will need to be ready to stop Bush. Brandon Marshall's recent production has taken a dip, while tight end Anthony Fasano has been the team's leading receiver the past two weeks.

The Dolphins easily handled the Bills 35-8 in the earlier meeting this year. They accused the Bills of being soft, and that has not been forgotten by the Bills players.

They were talking about it in the locker room this week, so you would like to think that the team is prepared to play more inspired ball this Sunday.

Steve Johnson: Contract Talks Have Broken off

According to this story that ran on ESPN this week, the Bills and Steve Johnson were in contract talks, but those broke off a couple weeks ago. The two parties are at an impasse, so it is not known what will happen going forward.

Will the Bills step up with the cash needed to keep Johnson happy? Will the team let him walk away like they did with Paul Posluszny? Will the Bills put the franchise tag on Johnson to keep him in the fold for at least one more year?

Those are the questions that we will be pondering when the regular season ends.

According to the ESPN story, Johnson told the Associated Press that he was seeking slightly less than $9 million per year, which means he is asking for money that is equal to the average of what the rest of the No. 1 wide receivers in the league are earning.

There is no question that Johnson has stepped up his production in the last six weeks, which started with the way that he beat Darrelle Revis (not just in one game, but in both), and it continued with his four-catch, 116-yard performance against the Chargers last Sunday.

Johnson is still the main focus of the opposing secondaries, since the Bills can't seem to field a threat opposite him that can stay healthy from one week to the next.

If the Bills allow Johnson to walk, it will put a major hole in the Bills offense and take away one of Ryan Fitzpatrick's favorite targets. Hopefully Johnson is able to come down on his price and/or the Bills step up to make a long-range deal work.

This is not the time to be "nickel-and-diming" it.

Ryan Fitzpatrick 0-6 After Signing New Contract

I have refrained from talking about it so far, but with each passing week, and each passing loss, it is becoming harder and harder to ignore. Ever since the Bills signed Ryan Fitzpatrick to a contract extension, the team has gone into a tailspin.

They were sitting at 5-2 and looking very good for a potential playoff berth. Ryan Fitzpatrick was then signed to a long-term contract extension, and the Bills immediately turned into the same Bills team that opened up the 2010 season under Chan Gailey that lost their first eight games.

In the past 19 years, there is only one other team that opened up a season at 5-2, and then proceeded to lose their final nine games. That was the 2001 San Diego Chargers, who turned a 5-2 start into a 5-11 season.

If the Bills drop their final three games, they would have accomplished the same thing, which is a very dubious accomplishment.

Since the six-game losing streak started, Fitzpatrick has thrown six touchdowns compared to nine interceptions. His QB rating in those six games has been as follows: 51.9, 46.6, 45.8, 111.5, 88.0 and 31.0.

The Bills do have an out on Fitzpatrick's new contract that would limit how much they have to pay him. According to Mike Florio of Pro Football Talk, the Bills could only be on the hook for $13.22 million of Fitzpatrick's deal if they decide to cut or trade the quarterback before the seventh day of the 2012 league year.

I realize that seems rather drastic, but except for the second game with the Jets, the majority of Fitzpatrick's games since signing the new deal have been clunkers. The Bills were enamored with the great start, and might have grossly overpaid as a result.

He sure doesn't resemble a $60 million quarterback lately.

Bills Sign Erik Pears to a New Contract

Erik Pears has turned in a rather solid 2011 for the Bills at right tackle, so the team rewarded him by signing him to a contract extension this past week. The deal calls for Pears to earn $9.3 million over the next three years.

Congratulations to Pears for being rewarded for his hard work.

In other news surrounding the Bills team:

Marcus Easley has been given the green light by doctors to play football in 2012, so he is back at the Bills facilities, running pass routes and working on getting back in shape. That is a good news for the Bills.

Kyle Williams is looking forward to rehab and getting 100 percent healthy with his achilles injury. The injury has bothered him since college, so he is optimistic that he will be better than ever.

Torell Troup is having surgery on his back and expects to be healthy for the 2012 season as well. Sounds like he was gutting it out while playing with a broken back this year.

Another interesting note was that the Bills attempted to sign a quarterback off of Green Bay's practice squad last week. That quarterback in question was Graham Harrell, who played his college ball at Texas Tech.

If you are not familiar with him, he won the Johnny Unitas Golden Arm Award, which is given to the nation's top senior quarterback. As a senior he threw for 4,747 yards, 41 touchdowns and just seven interceptions.

When the Bills tried to sign him, the Packers blocked the move by promoting Harrell to their active roster. He was not active last Sunday. The Bills interest in him is probably the result of Brad Smith going full-time to wide receiver.

Is Chan Gailey Losing His Impact on This Team?

If you listen to all of the Chan Gailey press conferences, they are sounding more and more like a song that keeps repeating. He takes all the bullets for the team to protect them from playing poorly one week after the other.

"I have to do a better job at this, I have to do a better job at that," is usually what you will hear him say about any facet of the team that is not getting the job done. It really is sounding like a broken record.

So as we prepare for the final three games in 2011, what effect does Gailey still have on the team? Have the players packed it in, or are they still willing to fight to gain some respect and pride back that would help the team prepare for 2012?

Sure, the injuries are difficult to overcome. I get that part. But if you look at the players on the field, there are a number of veterans still out there playing: Chris Kelsay, Dwan Edwards, George Wilson, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Nick Barnett and Spencer Johnson, just to name a few.

The passion, the fire, the emotion has to come from them along with the young guys. I will be looking to see if that still exists on Sunday.

Gailey found a way to snap the Bills out of their long losing streak in 2010. Can he do the same thing in 2011, or are his words now falling on deaf ears? Chris Brown had a chart on BuffaloBills.com that the Bills currently have the No. 12 draft spot next year if the season ended today.

That would probably allow the Bills to draft a very good tackle, pass rusher, wide receiver or quarterback (whoever they deemed could help them the most).

Inside the Numbers: When the Bills Have the Ball

The Bills offense is ranked No. 15 overall, as they average 343.6 yards per game. The Dolphins overall defense is ranked No. 12, as they allow 334.2 yards per game.

The Bills pass offense is No. 18, averaging 225 yards per game, while the Dolphins pass defense is No. 25, allowing 244.2 yards per game.

The Bills run offense is ranked No. 11 with 118.6 yards per game, while the Dolphins run defense is a very stout No. 3 in the NFL, allowing just 89.9 yards per game.

The Bills average 22.2 points per game, No. 17 in the NFL, while the Dolphins defense allows 18.9 points per game, No. 5 in the league.

The Bills offense has committed 23 turnovers, while the Dolphins defense has created just 13 turnovers.

Ryan Fitzpatrick has been sacked 16 times this season—only Matt Hasselbeck, with 15, has been sacked less. The Dolphins defense has 32 sacks, and they are ranked No. 14 in that category.

Inside the Numbers: When the Dolphins Have the Ball

The Miami Dolphins offense is ranked No. 24 in the league, averaging 311.2 yards per game. The Buffalo Bills defense is ranked No. 23 in the NFL, allowing an average of 363.5 yards per game.

The Dolphins pass offense is ranked No. 25, averaging 193.5 yards per game, while the Bills pass defense is No. 15, allowing 232.8 yards per game.

The Dolphins run offense is ranked No. 12, averaging 117.7 yards per game, while the Bills run defense is ranked No. 25, allowing an average of 130.7 yards per game.

The Dolphins score an average of 19.7 points per game, which ranks them No. 23 in the league, while the Bills defense allows 26.2 points per game, which is No. 26 in the NFL.

Dolphins quarterbacks have been sacked 39 times so far this year, while the Bills pass rush has resulted in 19 sacks, ranking them dead last in the league.

The Dolphins offense has lost the ball on turnovers 18 times this year, while the Bills defense has created 23 turnovers on the season.

Final Thoughts and Prediction

The Bills are needing a win to salvage some pride for the team. They want to put up a fight in front of their home fans, so I am anticipating a better game this Sunday.

The Dolphins were trying to save Tony Sparano's job, but now that he is fired, I wonder if it will have a negative impact on the team, like the rug has been pulled out from underneath their feet.

The Dolphins surrendered nine sacks last week against the Eagles, so there is a reasonable chance for the Bills front seven to put some pressure on Matt Moore, assuming that he starts this week.

In looking at the Bills current statistics, I was surprised to see the low totals in tackles for the following Bills veteran defensive players: Andra Davis (11), Shawne Merriman (9), Kyle Williams (9), Torell Troup (8), Kirk Morrison (4).

I realize that they have all missed games due to injury, or have been watching from the sidelines, but if you told me those figures before the season started, I am not sure that I would have guessed this team would have been 5-8 by now.

Looking for C.J. Spiller to get 20 carries this week, and hope that he has a big day.

Final Prediction: Buffalo Bills 17 - Miami Dolphins 13