UFC 141: 7 Reasons Donald Cerrone Can't Overlook Nate Diaz

Before the big guys take centre stage at UFC 141: Lesnar vs. Overeem, two of the scrappiest men in the lightweight division will get to do their thing when Donald Cerrone takes on Nate Diaz. Many are picking Cerrone, who is currently riding a remarkable hot streak, to handle the Stockton native.

However, there’s plenty for "Cowboy" to worry about. Things like:

Durability

Nate Diaz is as durable as anyone at lightweight, with an iron chin and the type of jelly frame that makes submitting him nearly impossible. While Cerrone has looked good in recent bouts, and is undefeated in the UFC, he’s yet to see an opponent who can take punishment the way Diaz can.

The one way for Cerrone to overcome that durability on paper is to chop his opponent down with leg kicks, as Nate isn’t known to check them and that might be the way to overcome his grittiness in other areas. He’ll need to be ready for a lengthy battle, though, no matter what.

The Ground Game

Diaz is a Cesar Gracie brown belt in jiu-jitsu, which is about a second degree black belt in most streams of the art. To say he’s well-versed on the ground doesn’t do him justice, as guys simply don’t survive a battle on the mat with him.

Cerrone has a sound submission game himself, but this is a different level of grappler he’s dealing with. Diaz might well be the best jiu-jitsu fighter in MMA to not hold a black belt, and if Cowboy sleeps on him for even a few seconds down there, he’ll end up tapping, napping or snapping.

Diaz Is a Bad Man at 155

What people seem to forget is that Nate Diaz as a lightweight is among the best on the planet. His losses at the class are to top-tier guys, and all of them were close. He holds an exhibition win over Gray Maynard and a close loss to him officially, and he has worked over some of the top lightweights in the world.

MMA is a sport where you’re only as good as your last performance, and while Diaz’s last showing was an utter mauling of Takanori Gomi, more people have focused on his troubles with brutish welterweights Rory MacDonald and Dong Hyun Kim. Newflash: this isn’t welterweight, and Diaz is big time at 155. If Cerrone doesn’t realize that, he could be in for a short night that feels very, very long.

He’s the Favorite

For the first time since coming to the UFC, Cerrone has ridden his momentum to being a significant, if informal, favourite going into a fight. People were split on him against Dennis Siver, and most of the time previously he’d been buried lower on the card where he was supposed to win, but no one was really focusing on the fact that he probably would.

Now, against Diaz, people are talking about him as a top 10 guy at 155, and he’s worked his way into the co-main event. People expect him to win, and they’ll be watching him in hopes that he does. If he doesn’t, people will notice. This ain’t the prelims anymore.

As the favourite, he needs to do his homework and come ready. If he overlooks Diaz and doesn’t show up to fight, he’ll be in trouble.

Underrated Standup

For far too long now, Nate and his brother Nick have been under-appreciated for their standup game. In 2011, Nick erased some of that stigma by utterly demolishing everyone put in front of him with stinging shots and blistering body punches. Where once people questioned his power, they have nothing to question any longer.

It’s the same story for Nate. He’s almost a carbon copy of his brother stylistically, utilizing slapping hands that add up over the rounds and wear guys out. As he matures physically and improves his technique, his power will improve in the same way his brother’s did.

I’m not saying this will be the fight that happens in, but it’s only a matter of time. Cerrone can’t overlook Diaz’s striking on account of power questions, for if he does, he might wake up looking at the lights.

Psychological Warfare

It’s safe to say that Donald Cerrone is a bit of a hothead. He wanted to drop to 145 pounds to fight the innocuous Nam Phan simply because Phan (justifiably) critiqued Cerrone friend and training partner Leonard Garcia’s technique. If he has a similar reaction in the cage to the verbal barbs Nate Diaz is known for, he’ll come out of his game plan and end up getting thrashed for it.

Diaz is a ruthless trash talker in the cage, often drawing opposition into his range by calling them names and taunting them. Cerrone is prone to fiery bursts from time to time, but one here will cost him a win. He needs to stay focused, let Diaz talk and fight smart. If he doesn’t, he won’t be successful.

It's the Biggest Stage of His Career

Most importantly, Donald Cerrone can’t overlook Nate Diaz because this is the biggest stage of his career. He’s worked to get to a co-main event slot in the UFC, and he’s been rewarded for that work by being put there on a card that will likely do a million buys due to Brock Lesnar’s name.

People will see him, people who may not know him, and if he sleeps on Nate Diaz, they’ll quickly know him as the dope in the cowboy hat who caught a beating from some skinny gangster. That’s not Cerrone, but he can’t afford to be anything other than the exciting scrapper fans have come to love, because all eyes are finally on him.

Diaz is looking to upset that applecart, so Cerrone needs to stay focused on him if he wants to really give his career a jolt.