NFL Playoff Predictions: Why Green Bay Packers Will Not Repeat

The undefeated Packers will not be this year's Super Bowl champions because they are far too reliant on their offense to succeed.

Look at the following numbers, and it will be clear that Green Bay will come up just short in their bid to complete the first ever 19-0 season.

Defensive Shortcomings

Defense win championships. It's as true now as it ever was. Last year the Packers and Steelers finished first and second respectively in points allowed per game. This season the Packers are 15th in points allowed per game.

The Packers are allowing almost six points more per contest than they did season.

Switch over to total defensive rankings, which is based on yards allowed, and the Packers are a miserable 31st in the league. Last season they were fifth. 

The two worst defenses to win the Super Bowl in that same period, in terms of overall defense, are the 2006 Indianapolis Colts and 2009 New Orleans Saints. They were ranked 21st and 25th respectively. And those are just two exceptions on a long list of champions.

The average defensive ranking for the Super Bowl champions in that time span is just over seven.

Another Defensive Note To Keep in Mind

It is important to note when comparing the Packers' defensive stats from last year that the Packers defense got off to a slow start. Five of their six games where they allowed the most yardage came in their first eight games.

They are not making the same improvements this year. Three of their five worst defensive outings, in terms of yardage, have come after Week 8.

Pass Protection

The Packers had issues protecting the pass last season, and those issues have grown this season. They are currently 21st in sacks allowed percentage. They were 17th last season. 

In last season's Super Bowl, the Steelers sacked Aaron Rodgers three times, and it very nearly cost them the game.

The Packers do not have the run game to take the defense's focus off rushing the passer. They are currently 27th in rushing yards allowed per game. This is going to lead to some big sacks which will result in wasted series' ending in punts, and they don't have a defense they can count on to get them the ball back quickly.

Why the Packers End Up Empty-Handed

The Packers were able to survive in games last season where they ran into defenses that could slow them down because their defense carried them.

They do not have that luxury this season. This puts too much pressure on the offense, as they will face a steady diet of strong defenses in the playoffs, and especially in the Super Bowl, where the top of the AFC is loaded with good defenses.

They are going to run into a team that bullies them and wears them down with the run game, and their offense will not be able to get into a rhythm and carry them.

In the last 28 Super Bowls, the team with the better defense has won 19 of 28.The Packers will not be the 10th because they are simply too reliant on their offense.