NFL's Stock Up Stock Down Week 15: Whose Value Is Plummeting After Week 14?
As the firings have commenced in earnest, it's time to look at who's doing well, who's hanging on by a thin thread and who's doing...not so very well.
Let's start with everyone's favorite unshaven ex-coach, Todd Haley.
Haley was 19-27 with the Chiefs and was coming off a 10-6 season when the wheels immediately came off this season with the season-ending injury to running back Jamaal Charles.
Honestly, though, we didn't see it when we all should have seen it coming as recently as last season. Sure, he had that great record, but it was against a schedule set up by a poor 2009. Haley reportedly feuded with offensive coordinator Charlie Weis (largely credited with quarterback Matt Cassel's 2010 turnaround), and it has been said the relationship between he and GM Scott Pioli was strained.
On top of that, it seems as though Haley suffered from something common when looking at the failures of Patriots coach Bill Belichick's coaching tree: you have to earn the right to be a "tough guy" coach. Your players have to be convinced you are worth putting up with your hard-nosed ways.
I could be wrong, but I think it speaks loudly when only two Chiefs' players showed up to talk about Haley's firing, while you couldn't swing a dead dolphin without hitting a Miami player praising former coach Tony Sparano (more on him later).
The final straw was Haley's meltdown at the officials during the Jets game which cost his team a penalty.
Haley may have lost the locker room; he may not have. For sure, he'd lost his owner.
Let's take a look at some more people and teams rising and falling after Week 15.
Value Up: John Fox
1 of 15I loved the hiring of John Fox from the word "go." Sure, the team got off to a rough start by not getting rid of Kyle Orton in preseason and then stumbling out of the gate in the first half of the season.
Somewhat begrudgingly, Fox turned to Tim Tebow to take over at quarterback. The first game, against Detroit, was an unmitigated disaster. Then Fox had a brainstorm—one so obvious, it's almost a shock that it seems revolutionary.
Coaches are used to doing things a certain way. There's a right way to play football and any other way.
Fox looked at Tim Tebow, the king of "the wrong way," and instead of forcing the QB into the system, he forced a system around the QB.
It's worked and continues to work, flying in the face of every analyst including yours truly.
As remarkable but less heralded is the way Fox and company have done the same thing with Von Miller on defense. When Miller was drafted by Denver, many said he didn't—nay COULDN'T—fit into their defense.
Yet, Fox has tweaked and manipulated the defense to best use Miller's unique talents.
It takes a unique coach to risk what Fox has thus far. Maybe it all falls apart in the next few weeks. Until it does, you are witnessing something rare in the NFL—a coach bucking conventional way.
Value Down: Chris Johnson
2 of 15Johnson has been absolutely befuddling this season. Finally paid his big contract, Johnson absolutely stunk it up for the better part of nine games.
Johnson looked like he had lost his burst, some of his speed and most of his passion. He was a shade of his previous self, unable to carry a team he had carried to a huge contract previously.
Then in Week 10, Johnson started a streak of 100-plus yard games for the next three out of four matches. He began to look like his old self, and Titans fans started to breath easier.
Until he ran right into the buzz-saw ground defense of the New Orleans Saints.
By buzz saw, I mean middle of the road. The Saints allow an average of 110 yards and have given up 10 touchdowns so far this season. It's the sort of defense which Johnson should excel against, and instead, he ran for just 23 yards, though he did add 45 yards in receiving.
Still Johnson has more than underplayed his new contract and continues to be unreliable for his team.
Value Up: Maurice Jones-Drew
3 of 15Maurice Jones-Drew was written off by a ton of people this offseason. His issues with injury in 2010 seemed to be a sign that the physical breakdown so many expected was finally here.
MJD has responded with a tremendous season, currently leading the NFL in rushing and doing it with a pretty ineffective rookie quarterback, an injury-plagued and shaky offensive line and no real weapons for the aforementioned quarterback to throw to.
All this seems to flow off Jones-Drew like water off a duck's back. He just keeps playing hard and gaining yards. Of the entire Jaguars' team, he's the one person who has never seemed like he was letting up.
I put him next to Chris Johnson for a reason. There's a right way to approach the game and a wrong way.
Guess which is which?
Value Down: Indianapolis Colts
4 of 15This isn't exactly a stretch, but it's also about more than an 0-16 record.
It's about a team which is built on one player to the exclusion of all else. A team which had no plan B for that player despite his importance. It's about a team which hasn't really had a solid draft in years.
The Colts, as a franchise, has failed their fans. For too long, they just sat back and let Peyton Manning save them year after year with absolutely no care for the future.
Now, the Colts are in a position to potentially grab a new franchise player or trade out for perhaps a bevy of picks to rebuild with.
Will they be able to start the process off well or will management once again fumble the opportunity to do things correctly?
We'll know in just over four months. Until then, this franchise looks ugly.
Value Down: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
5 of 15The Bucs were poised to be a real player in the NFC South—in the whole NFL to be more accurate.
What happened?
This entire team seems to have had a sophomore slump. Third-year quarterback Josh Freeman has regressed terribly this season and is now hurt. After a great rookie season, Mike Williams was a complete non-factor. Blount has played well but was hurt and is nearly useless on third down.
One could also call into question head coach Raheem Morris' coaching technique and many decisions he has made.
It's not a do-or-die for this team...not yet. This is a marathon not a sprint.
However, given the expectations for the Bucs, this team can be nothing short of a disappointment to its fans. Whatever the future may hold—and I believe they will bounce back in 2012—this year has seen the Bucs' stock go down.
Value Up: Tim Tebow
6 of 15Sure, this is another "gimme" in many ways, but I wanted Tebow on this because he has gone so far beyond what I expected that it's worth a mention.
Honestly, I never would say I was a "hater." I just felt (and feel) that Tebow had a long road ahead of him. The constant "all he does is win" comments in the face of such a raw player was grating.
Yet, here we are, and you know what? He does more than win.
While Orton was the king of three-and-out, Tebow has long drives which grind out clock. The defense is playing inspired football, but they are also rested in between series, something which Orton did not give them.
They—and the offense—believe in Tebow. That's no small thing; that's leadership. It's a difference maker.
On top of that, Tebow is actually improving as a passer. Yes, I wrote that. He's not Aaron Rodgers, but he's getting a bit better every week.
I don't know how long this will last. I watch the games, I watch Game Rewind on NFL.com, watch the coaches angles every Wednesday and it still doesn't compute.
What I do know is that Tebow is making a huge difference for this team, and I believe he's taking them to the playoffs.
What happens then is unknown. I can guarantee it will be fun to watch though.
Value Up: Eli Manning
7 of 15To keep this on the up and up—I do not believe Eli Manning is an elite quarterback. From a career standpoint, which is how I see such things I reckon, he has just been too inconsistent.
That said, he's quietly put together a heck of a season.
His offensive line is a travesty, his receivers drop balls like they are on fire and the run game has been inconsistent.
Yet, here's Peyton's younger brother with the fourth-most total passing yards, winning in Dallas, nearly beating Green Bay.
Manning doesn't have me convinced he belongs among the games best from a career standpoint. This season though, he's definitely among the game's best.
Value Down: Philadelphia Eagles
8 of 15Something just didn't click.
To me, the Eagles have seemed a lot like a group of individuals who happen to be on a team, rather than a team who happens to be comprised of individuals with a common purpose.
For an example of that second part, look over at the Broncos, Packers and recently the Jets.
There's no doubt the Eagles are stacked with talent. There are All-Pros at so many positions, it seems like on paper, it should be illegal.
However, the cracks were there before the season. The so-so offensive line. The rookies at middle linebacker. The odd defensive schemes forcing Nnamdi Asomugha into situations which don't leverage his talent.
It's partially the coaching. Defensive coordinator Juan Castillo might have had a plan, but I don't know what it was, and honestly, even if I did, it isn't working. Head coach Andy Reid can't get his players to play for him and has totally lost DeSean Jackson, though to be honest, it could be that the Eagles are better if Jackson is lost.
This team is a disaster area. From the penthouse to the outhouse, nobody in the NFL has fallen further, faster.
Value Up: Steve Smith
9 of 15Remember when Panthers receiver Steve Smith was demanding a trade? Remember when he was sick of being in Carolina and annoyed he had no quarterback?
I'd bet he would like to take it all back.
When the Panthers drafted Cam Newton, who knew that not only would Smith see more consistent targets than he has in years, but that the passes would not only be catchable but conducive to many, many yards?
Smith is already over 1,000 yards for the first time since 2008 and could very easily hit 1,500 by year's end. He's not seeing a ton of touchdown chances, but this has been a huge year for him anyway.
While it's frustrating to think of all the years he has wasted previously, you have to wonder if he has a few extra because he was so underutilized.
The Panthers aren't winning, and that has to be frustrating for all involved. You can expect less chirping this offseason from Smith though—he's in for the long haul.
Value Up: New York Jets
10 of 15The Jets have the league right where they want them.
This is the same team which mistackled its way to a loss in Denver, right? The team which was blown out twice by arch-rival new England? The one with the magic quarterback who produces pick-sixes out of thin air?
I am writing a "Value Up," right?
Honestly, this team seems to play better when under the gun. I don't know why, but they do. Right now, they're playing solid football and are back in the playoffs. With the Titans, Bengals and Raiders all struggling, the Jets hold their fate in their own hands.
Which is just the way they like it.
Shonn Greene is running the ball with the authority he seemed to lack early in the season. Mark Sanchez is protecting the ball well and making better decisions. The defense has stepped up again. The offensive line is playing more consistently.
The Jets have a tough row to hoe with the Eagles, Giants and Miami on the docket.
However, this is exactly the type of situation Rex Ryan's team thrives on.
Value Down: Miami Dolphins
11 of 15I was going to put this on Sparano because, well when you get fired, your stock goes down.
Really though, my beef is with the organization, not Sparano.
After all, what did he do other than withstand being nearly replaced before he was even fired? To watch his owner go and flirt with Jim Harbaugh while Sparano was still under contract?
To run a team which was run with the football acumen on a rabid monkey?
Seriously, who can hate on this guy when the owner of the team, Stephen Ross, puts his foot in his mouth nearly every time he opens it?
I feel for you Miami fans, I do. I hope that GM Jeff Ireland and Ross can get their house in order and start making some smart decisions because the team isn't that far off.
That, to me, is the worst sin here. Sparano gets fired after he finally gets his team on the same page and believing. So many players came out today, disappointed by the firing. Really, Sparano has been a dead man walking for a year, but he handled it with class, and I think that motivated his players.
This team isn't that far off or wasn't under Sparano. It remains to be seen who the Dolphins hire, and therefore, what the future holds.
I don't much like the way things started today though. Someone got thrown under the bus and not for the first time.
Value Down: Kevin Kolb
12 of 15Maybe it's unfair to rip on a guy who has been beaten up all season long and lasted one second against the San Francisco 49ers before leaving with a head injury.
Even so, I'll do it.
Frankly, Kolb had one really good game and a smattering of middle of the road efforts. Nothing worth the money he got paid, not worth the price the team paid to trade for him.
Sure, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie hasn't done much in Philadelphia, but what can you do stuck behind Nnamdi Asomugha and Asante Samuels?
I think he could have been much more effective helping Arizona's somewhat porous secondary.
Back to Kolb though, it says a lot when you are less effective than John Skelton.
Between Kolb and Titans back Chris Johnson, teams have proof that sometimes you need to keep your pocketbook closed.
Kolb will likely be back in Arizona next season. If they improve the line, he might even be healthy and stay that way.
I'm not holding my breath though. Kolb shows little field awareness or calmness in the pocket, and his arm and accuracy are just OK.
One of the more dubious trades this season.
Value Up: "Spread" QBs
13 of 15Cam Newton, Tim Tebow, Andy Dalton.
All three came from a version of a spread offense. Two of them are quarterbacks who are just as deadly (if not more so) with their feet as with their arms. Two are rookies—one just a second-year starter.
All are having success in the NFL this season.
Each has a different set of circumstances. Tebow has an offense built in highly specialized fashion for him. Newton has shown a higher degree of accuracy than expected, as has Dalton.
If the success continues, especially for Newton and Tebow, you may see a shift in how scouts and teams look at quarterbacks.
With Baylor quarterback Robert Griffin III winning the Heisman, it will be interesting to see how high his stock scores. If he comes out, Stanford quarterback Andrew Luck is the odds-on favorite for the first overall pick but don't be shocked if Griffin goes higher than expected.
This is a copycat league, always has been. Some team will look at the success of the above quarterbacks and think "why not us?"
Someone will see Griffin as the next Tebow or the next Newton.
Stock Down: NFLPA
14 of 15I get the NFLPA's issue with HGH testing; I do.
They want assurances that the test is accurate, and the process is fair.
Maybe the public doesn't care that much, but I think they do, and once the season is over, the focus will shift on why the NFLPA refuses to allow HGH testing.
It's not about who's right or wrong—it's about perception, and right now, the perception is the NFLPA is dragging their feet in order to protect players who are using.
The NFLPA is in an unenviable position. If they bow to the will of the NFL (and Congress and fans), they will have angry players if the process has flaws. If they hold fast, they lose the public relations war.
I think in the end, they need to at least step forward and start the process towards instituting testing.
Whether the players like it or not, HGH is a banned substance. They shouldn't be using it, and if they aren't, there isn't anything to hide.
If there's something to hide, it's probably time for a career change.
Stock Up: Green Bay Packers
15 of 15OK, so here's a softball but really, how can I not have an undefeated team on this list? Is anyone's stock higher?
Consider what head coach Mike McCarthy and the boys have done. Again.
Once again, we see a banged up team which doesn't slow down no matter who is hurt. The Packers lose a guy and quickly adjust as only the best teams can. Even the defense has overcome injuries and a slow start to become a very solid unit.
They have a quarterback who is having a season for the ages. Aaron Rodgers consistently makes breathtaking plays, and what's more,he makes them look easy. His decision making is second to none; he's able to overcome shaky line play and a lack of a running game.
Rodgers is easily the MVP this season, and it's not even close.
Despite injuries, it's hard to imagine this team not being in Indianapolis this coming February.
So sure, it's a no-brainer.
The list wouldn't be complete without them though.
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