Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson to LA: Why It Won't Work for the Angels

Albert Pujols and C.J. Wilson have both agreed to contracts with the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. Both men will be attached at the hip as their signings represent a new era in Angels baseball. For years, the Angels have tried to outshine the Dodgers in sunny Los Angeles, and now they think they've got it covered.

There's just one problem: Neither of these signings are going to work for the Angels.

It's hard to bet against Albert Pujols, but the reality is that he will turn 32 next January. Yes, that's the prime of most baseball careers, and Albert Pujols is not an average baseball player. However, father time catches up to everyone.

Pujols will be 41 years old when his 10-year, $254 million contract expires in 2021. At that point, Pujols could be one of two things. In one scenario, Pujols continues to be "The Machine" as he refuses to age. As he leads the Angels into the playoffs year after year, Pujols assaults the home run record held by Barry Bonds and becomes the greatest Angel ever.

Scenario B is far more likely. This is where Albert starts to see a decrease in his numbers as he inches toward 40. It happens to every athlete where they hit an age where they just can't cut it anymore. The Angels are taking the chance that Albert's is somewhere beyond age 41.

Also consider that the only player we've seen continue such a torrid pace north of 40 was Barry Bonds, who was linked to performance-enhancing drugs. Unless Pujols gets in touch with Victor Conte, it's a safe bet we'll see some decline.

Then there's C.J. Wilson, who signed a five-year, $77.5 million deal with the Angels on Thursday as well. Wilson got paid "ace money" by the Angels, but there is one huge risk associated with their new toy.

Wilson has only been in the Texas Rangers' rotation for two seasons. That means that Wilson does not have the track record that other "highly-paid ace" pitchers have had such as Johan Santana and C.C. Sabathia.

If anything, Wilson's career has looked similar to the one of Carl Pavano. Pavano was the most sought after pitcher in the 2005 free-agent market. He was going to get "ace money" despite the fact that in a seven-year career, Pavano had topped over 10 wins in a season just twice.

Pavano left the Florida Marlins for the New York Yankees at age 28 and proceeded to go straight in the toilet. Injuries and ineffectiveness limited Pavano's performance, and he would not regain his old form until he left New York after the 2008 season.

The similarities between Wilson and Pavano are staggering. Like Pavano, Wilson had recorded over 10 wins in a season just twice in his career. Wilson's 2011 contract year (16-7 with a 2.94 ERA) looks eerily similar to that of Pavano's 2004 contract year (18-8 with a 3.00 ERA). In other words, signing a pitcher to big money with a short track record can come back to haunt a team. In this case, I expect that to happen.

So while Angels fans are dancing in the streets over the two biggest splashes in the 2012 MLB free-agency season, just remember that free agency doesn't always project to long-term success.