NFL Playoff Predictions: Odds These 12 Players Win Super Bowl MVP

When it comes time to make playoff predictions with a good portion of the season left, it is not surprising that some of the predictions aren't looking extremely great right now.

On November 10th, I wrote a playoff prediction article, where I predicted which eight teams with a winning record would fail to make the playoffs. Of the eight teams I selected, the vast majority have seen their playoff hopes diminish, while a couple teams fooled me and took off. For the record, I had predicted that the Buffalo Bills, Chicago Bears, Cincinnati Bengals, Kansas City Chiefs, Oakland Raiders, Tampa Bay Bucs, Tennessee Titans and Dallas Cowboys would fail to reach the playoffs.

The two teams that took off right after that prediction are the Raiders and Cowboys. The Broncos didn't factor in at the time, because they had a losing record. The Bears and Bengals are still in the running, but the injury to Jay Cutler and the Bengals' losses to Baltimore and Pittsburgh are making me think that I might have nailed both of those picks.

Today, we are going to take another look at the projected playoff participants, and try to establish odds on which of the 12 following players have the best chance for winning the Super Bowl MVP award.

Super Bowl MVP Award Track Record

While we recognize that anybody on the football team could conceivably win the Super Bowl MVP award, the reality is that the quarterback of the winning team is usually the guy that walks away with the trophy, so we will focus primarily on quarterbacks.

Out of the first 45 Super Bowl games, the MVP award has gone to quarterbacks (24 times), wide receivers (6), running backs (7), secondary (3), linebackers (2), defensive linemen (2) and a kick returner (1).

Andy Dalton 35:1

If the season ended today, the Cincinnati Bengals would be receiving the final Wild Card slot, with a 7-4 record. However, over their final five games, the Bengals have three tough opponents, with games against Pittsburgh, Baltimore and Houston.

Because of the remaining schedule, it is no sure thing that the Bengals will qualify for the postseason. If the Bengals do get there, it will because rookie quarterback Andy Dalton led them to some key wins down the stretch run.

For the Bengals to win the Super Bowl, their defense would have to step up even more than they are doing now, and simply shut down all of their opponents in the playoffs. The Bengals do have some offense in the trio of Dalton, Cedric Benson and A.J. Green, but to expect the rookie Dalton to go through the playoffs unfazed by the magnitude of the postseason would be a stretch.

Odds of winning Super Bowl MVP: 35 to 1

Frank Gore 35:1

The San Francisco 49ers have survived the "Brothers Harbaugh" battle on Thanksgiving, and can now go back and focus on finishing out the regular season and try to gain as high a seed in the playoffs as they can possibly attain.

Once in the playoffs, they will have to rely on their current strategy of playing solid team defense, running the ball with Frank Gore and the short passing game of Alex Smith to advance them in the postseason.

If the 49ers were to advance to the Super Bowl and win the game, I am hard pressed right now to tell you who would be the Super Bowl MVP. The reason is that due to the nature of their offense, who is the most dynamic player on that unit? In the old days, it was either Steve Young, Joe Montana or Jerry Rice. Now, I am just not convinced I know that answer.

For the purposes of this article, I will establish Frank Gore as the 49ers player with the best chances of winning the Super Bowl MVP. But as we witnessed on Thanksgiving, a really good defense reduced the 49ers to just six points of offense, and that kind of production will not cut it in the playoffs.

Odds of Winning Super Bowl MVP: 35 to 1

Matt Forte 35:1

The Jay Cutler injury has really set the Chicago Bears' chances back. The saving grace is that teams like the New York Giants and Detroit Lions keep losing games that allows the Bears to stay in it.

The Bears will have to find a way to let quarterback Caleb Hanie manage the game without personally blowing the game. He sure made a mess of things in his first start, so we will see if Lovie Smith is able to reign him in this weekend.

As far as the Super Bowl goes, the Bears could conceivably get there, but it would have to be on the legs of Matt Forte and a stout defense. But since most of the NFC playoff contenders have great quarterbacks and a solid passing attack, it doesn't bode well for the Bears to ever get to the Super Bowl, as their pass defense is ranked No. 30 in the NFL.

Combine the poor pass defense and the quarterback play, and it would seem to be a long-shot for the Bears to even get to the Super Bowl, much less win it.

Odds of Winning Super Bowl MVP: 35 to 1

Arian Foster 35:1

The Houston Texans finally got their act together on both sides of the ball in the same season, and then, wham, they lose Matt Schaub and Matt Leinart in consecutive games for the rest of the season.

I realize that they are going to sign some veteran free agent as they are working out Jeff Garcia and Jake Delhomme. But if the Texans start either one of those veterans or the rookie T.J. Yates in the playoffs, I think that most NFL experts would downplay the Texans' chances to win it all. There is a reason that with all the quarterback injuries around the NFL this year, that no other team has signed either of these guys 12 weeks into the season.

It is a shame that the quarterback injuries hit when they did, because the Texans have an awesome running back committee in Arian Foster and Ben Tate, and the always dangerous Andre Johnson at wide receiver that offer a balanced attack on offense. Then you look at the Texans defense, which is ranked No. 1 in the NFL, and you realize that this team is very close to having a championship team.

Odds of Winning Super Bowl MVP: 35 to 1

Carson Palmer 24:1

With all of the weapons that the Oakland Raiders have provided to quarterback Carson Palmer, the Raiders could be a very dangerous team when the playoffs roll around. The biggest obstacle that I see for the Raiders is if their defense can play on par with the offense when the postseason rolls around.

The Raiders defense is ranked No. 27 overall and they are giving up 24.9 points a game, which ranks them at No. 25. The rush defense is in that same neighborhood, ranked No. 27, which allows 135 yards per game on the ground.

While every other team that leads their respective AFC division is ahead of them in the standings, the Raiders will likely have to win on the road to get to the Super Bowl. A shootout contest on the road in January doesn't necessarily bode well. If they have to travel to a cold weather city, it could be even worse.

Odds of Winning Super Bowl MVP: 24 to 1

Joe Flacco 24:1

The thing that bothers me the most about the Baltimore Ravens is that you never really know for sure which Ravens team will show up from one week to the next. Sweeping the Pittsburgh Steelers, beating the Jets, Texans, Bengals and 49ers show that the Ravens are a quality team and can beat anybody in the league.

The losses to Tennessee, Jacksonville and Seattle show that the Ravens can't seem to find a consistent level or sense of urgency to go to from one week to the next. When the playoffs roll around, who is to say that the Ravens won't fall flat on their face in the first round against a weaker opponent?

I like the Ravens receivers as Torrey Smith has brought life to the group. Lee Evans has barely been used but could still be a factor and Anquan Boldin has been consistent all year. Ray Rice gives them the quality back that they need to keep a balanced offensive attack.

Quarterback Joe Flacco has turned in some great games this year, but has had some clunkers as well. If the Ravens are to win the Super Bowl, Flacco will need to play the best three or four game stretch of his career.

Odds of Winning Super Bowl MVP: 24 to 1

Tony Romo 10:1

Since DeMarco Murray has taken over as the Dallas Cowboys starting running back, the team has taken off, winning five of their last six games. If the Cowboys are to continue winning and take the NFC East Division title, they will need to continue to give the ball to Murray, which also goes a long way towards setting up the passing game for Tony Romo.

In those five wins, Romo doesn't have any 300-passing yard games, and no receiver has topped 100 yards in receptions in the wins. The running game of Murray has placed less emphasis on the passing game, and this formula appears to keep Romo out of trouble and prevents him from making bad decisions.

Once in the playoffs, the Cowboys hope to see continued strong play from their defense, which succeeds at getting pressure on the quarterback and disrupting the timing of opponents offenses. The Cowboys offense is No. 6 in the league, while the defense is ranked No. 12.

The Cowboys have two games with the New York Giants left, but the remaining three games are against teams with losing records, so they are in a good spot to continue playing in the postseason. Once there, all bets are off, due to Romo's playoff record.

Odds of Winning Super Bowl MVP: 10 to 1

Ben Roethlisberger 8:1

The Pittsburgh Steelers are tied for the best record in the AFC, despite being swept by the Baltimore Ravens. The Steelers are 4-1 at home and are 4-2 on the road, which are positive signs going forward. The Steelers remaining schedule has two tough games against Cincinnati and San Francisco, so it is possible that the Steelers could wind up with home field advantage during the playoffs.

The ground game isn't as strong as it has been in prior years, and the thumb injury to Ben Roethlisberger and the concussion to Troy Polamalu are concerns that might limit both players' total effectiveness over the course of the postseason.

The Steelers are as capable as anybody in getting on a roll, but I like some of the other NFL contenders' offenses better than I like the Steelers.

Odds of Winning Super Bowl MVP: 8 to 1

Matt Ryan 8:1

The Atlanta Falcons have been rolling along lately, winning six of their past eight games, with the only losses coming against the New Orleans Saints and Green Bay Packers. No embarrassment there with either loss. Going forward, the Falcons have only two tough games left, the Saints and the Texans.

The biggest transformation in Atlanta this year is the Falcons run defense, which jumped from No. 10 in 2010 to No. 2 this season. The Falcons are only giving up 83.5 yards per game on the ground, so if they can continue to be that stingy on the ground, that bodes well for their playoff chances.

The Falcons have a solid offense with the running of Michael Turner, and Matt Ryan has a number of places that he can go to with the ball, ranging from Roddy White, Tony Gonzalez, Julio Jones and Harry Douglas. The Falcons could be an interesting team in the playoffs, but their Achilles' heel is their pass defense.

Odds of Winning Super Bowl MVP: 8 to 1

Drew Brees 6:1

If you watched Drew Brees scrambling for a touchdown run on Monday Night Football against the New York Giants, and throw for four touchdown passes, you realize that Brees is already in postseason form and has put the rest of the league on notice that the Saints are ready to make another Super Bowl run.

Brees doesn't seem to get flustered and always seems to have an outlet ready to go to whenever he is in trouble. The Saints have as strong a running back committee as any potential playoff contender, so the key will be how well will their defense (rated No. 25 overall) play down the stretch. The defense that traveled to Seattle in the first round last year would not fare very well in the playoffs this year.

The Saints have won eight of their last 10 games and they appear to be as sound an offense as any team in the NFL. Tight end Jimmy Graham has become a true weapon, as is third down back Darren Sproles.

The fact that the Saints defense isn't ranked higher doesn't scare me off that much, when you consider where the Green Bay Packers and New England Patriots pass defenses are ranked. The Saints have a very realistic chance of winning it all, and if they do, Brees will lead the way.

Odds of Winning Super Bowl MVP: 6 to 1

Tom Brady 6:1

Tom Brady of the New England Patriots is one of my three favorite players to win the Super Bowl MVP award. Brady and the Patriots offense are absolutely tearing up their opponents, as the Patriots have averaged 36 points over their current three-game winning streak.

Brady has the Patriots offense ranked No. 2 in the NFL, and Brady is the No. 2 ranked quarterback in the league. Wes Welker is the No. 1 wide receiver, so between him, Rob Gronkowski, Deion Branch and Aaron Hernandez, Brady has plenty of weapons to turn to.

The Patriots have as easy a remaining schedule of any team that leads their division, so they could very well end the regular season with home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs.

If the Patriots win the Super Bowl, it no doubt will be because of what Tom Brady did to take his team there.

Odds of Winning Super Bowl MVP: 6 to 1

Aaron Rodgers 4:1

Aaron Rodgers is the No. 1 ranked quarterback in the NFL. His Green Bay Packers have won 11 straight regular season games to start off the year and they look to be well on their way towards capturing home field advantage throughout the NFC playoffs, not that they really need it, as they proved last year, winning on the road as the Wild Card team.

The only aspect of the Packers that scares me a little bit is that the defense is ranked at No. 30 in the NFL. They are surrendering 393 yards of offense every game and sooner or later the lack of defense will come back to haunt them. So far, so good though.

If somethings happens to Aaron Rodgers, that would be the other big issue going forward that has the potential to derail the Packers. But Rodgers is playing like the NFL MVP, so it would make sense that he would also win the Super Bowl MVP.

Rodgers is my odds-on favorite to win the trophy, as I have him listed at 4:1 odds to take the trophy home.

Odds of winning Super Bowl MVP: 4 to 1