The NHL's Canadian Teams: 5 Things We've Learned from the Season's First Quarter

Ah, benchmarks. We in sports fandom crave the mileposts along our seasonal highways that offer up free license to cast judgements upon our teams (and upon other teams, for that matter).

This past week, the NHL season reached the end of its first quarter, and while it's a little too early to anoint a Stanley Cup favorite (OK, Pittsburgh) or an NHL draft favorite (OK, Columbus), we can certainly formulate opinions that are at least moderately informed. 

What follows are ruminations and declarations on the varying states of six of Canada's seven teams (the Ottawa Senators can't even figure themselves out, so I'm not going to bother). 

The Toronto Maple Leafs Are for Real

Well, sort of. 

The center of the hockey universe was treated to its second straight fast start, going 7-2-1 after their first 10 games. Phil Kessel led the way with 18 points over the same span, and Dion Phaneuf was playing like the captain that Brian Burke dreamed he could be (sorry, Flames fans).

Naturally, we all assumed the Leafs and their red-hot sniper would fall back down to Earth, as they had the previous year, with an equally formidable slump. A six-game span in November (during which the team was outscored 25-9, managing only three points) and injuries to a half-dozen starters seemed to confirm our suspicions.

But a funny thing happened on the way to the basement. A recent four-game road trip yielded seven of a possible eight points for the Buds, and even Jonas Gustavsson, a perennial kick-pup in Toronto since his rookie year, has found a groove while standing in for the injured James Reimer (three wins with a 1.95 GAA and a .929 save percentage in the last seven days).

After 24 games, the Leafs find themselves in second place, behind Pittsburgh, in the Eastern Conference.

Let's not kid ourselves. The only thing that's saved a team that has allowed more goals than all but three teams in the league has been an offense that has scored more goals than all but two and to expect 200 points from a streaky Phil Kessel (on pace for 105) and journeyman Joffrey Lupul (on pace for 98) is, well, a bit ridiculous. Building a contender on the foundation of a backup goaltender who has 78 games to his name is also tenuous, to say the least.

There is, however, reason to believe that, come April, the Leafs will be fighting for their first playoff berth since 2004 from a much better position than seasons past. The November losing streak that was supposed to be never really materialized. This is a Toronto team that seems to have learned how to stem the bleeding, and there's even talk about a contract extension for coach Ron Wilson. 

Not quite champagne-popping territory for Leafs Nation just yet. But optimism in December? That's worth at least a few glasses of eggnog. 

The Stanley Cup Hangover Is Also for Real

Tim Thomas drank as much playoff hockey as Roberto Luongo did. The difference, of course, is that Thomas woke up the morning after, in his bed, with a beautiful woman next to him, and Luongo woke up alone, in the fetal position, in a ditch, surrounded by a large crowd of rioting Vancouverites. So, it makes sense that poor old Bobby Lou would weather his hangover with a bit more difficulty than his Boston-based nemesis.

Before succumbing to injury in mid-November, Luongo was struggling to find his form, with a goals against average near 3.00 and a save percentage under .900. The rest of his team was not faring much better, playing .500 hockey through its first 13 games. 

The Canucks, however, have turned things around, winning five straight and eight of 11. Good news for Vancouver, but not great news for Luongo, as the 'Nucks' hot play of late can be rightly attributed to the play of back-up goaltender Cory Schneider, last week's runner-up for NHL player of the week with two shutouts and three wins. 

Luongo has traditionally been a slow starter, and Canucks fans have always been kind enough to forget that. But this pickle is particularly dill-y for him for a couple of reasons. One: He sort of laid an egg in four of the seven games he started in the Stanley Cup Finals last year. Two: Schneider is an RFA at the end of the year, while he'll be wearing a $5.3 million dollar albatross around his neck until 2022.

Schneider's play as of late is not anomalous. His numbers last year—16-4, 2.23, .929—would earn him the starting role on a majority of NHL teams and his current salary is $900,000 a year. Canucks fans are keenly aware of all of this and will not stomach the possibility of watching him get traded to another team, only to lead them to victory. Of course, they won't accept a $64 million dollar goaltender riding the pine, either, and therein lies the problem. 

Since the team is winning and we're just getting into December, the natives are resting. But if Schneider continues to thrive while Luongo continues to struggle, Vancouver's hangover could go Vegas in a hurry. 

The Pendulum Has Officially Swung in Alberta

A few years from now, Flames fans may look back to Thursday, October 7, 2010 as the day the winds started to change in Alberta. It was the first game of the regular season, and the Flames had swept the season series the year before; a first in the rivalry's history.

While Calgary had not made the playoffs since the '08-'09 season, the Oilers seemed mired in a perpetual rebuild and had struggled to attract quality free-agents since Chris Pronger demanded out of Edmonton for personal (or possibly adulterous) reasons after the '05-'06 season.

Then, with the Flames on a power play and looking to tie the game at one, the Oilers got possession of the puck, catching the Flames pinching deep in the offensive zone. Away went then-rookie Jordan Eberle on a 2-on-1, streaking down towards Miikka Kiprusoff. A toe-drag, a deke, and a top-shelf back-hand later, Eberle had tallied a shorthanded goal that Calgary would not recover from. It was the highly-touted rookie's first ever goal, a highlight-reel marker that continues to haunt the Flames today.

It's worth mentioning that the Oilers still finished dead last, while the Flames finished 32 points ahead, just three out of a playoff spot. But the curve of expectations put the teams much closer.

The Oilers were full of youth and potential, and both Eberle and first-overall pick Taylor Hall were breathing life into central Alberta.

The Flames, meanwhile, were aging quickly and stubbornly refusing to initiate a rebuild by moving a still-valued Jarome Iginla (despite not having the cap space to compliment him). Doors were opening in Edmonton and closing in Calgary.

Through the first quarter of this season, it's the Oilers on the playoff bubble thanks in part to the newly minted Lottery Line of Eberle, Hall and 2011 first-overall pick Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, who leads all NHL rookies by a mile with 25 points through 24 games. Inconsistent goaltending and a no-name defense may keep the Oil from reaching the top eight this season. But Edmonton has their feet firmly on the second rung of the rebuilding ladder, and they're only looking up.

In Calgary, there is still a ways to go before rock bottom, and the choice that general manager Jay Feaster is stuck with is whether they get there sooner rather than later. The Flames are the third-oldest team in the league and sit about $1.3 million under the salary cap ceiling. All that money and all that experience has earned them 21 points in 23 games, good for 12th in the Western Conference.

As expected, the Jarome Iginla trade talk is swirling again. Iginla's contract pays him through 2013, so this would be the year to move him if you wanted a decent return. But convincing a hockey market to sign over their star and commit to a rebuild is easier said than done. 

I suppose you could just tell them to look north.

The Montreal Canadiens Are a Salary Cap Disaster

Scott Gomez resentment is as sure as the winter snow in Montreal. But this season, the hatred for the Anchorage, Alaska native and his $7.3 million cap hit (through 2014) has a particularly sharp edge to it, and for good reason. The 31 year-old forward has just four points in 13 games and hasn't scored a goal since February. 

Michael Cammelleri, the Habs' second-highest paid player ($6 million cap hit, also through 2014) is faring only slightly better, with 11 points and a minus-five in 19 games.

After playing only 52 games over the previous two seasons, defenseman Andrei Markov became the Canadiens' third-biggest cap hit when the team signed him to a three-year, $17.25 million contract in June. He has yet to lace up his skates this season. 

So there you have it. Three players, signed or acquired to provide Montreal with its offense, with an aggregate stat line of five goals, 10 assists and a minus-eight through the first quarter of the season, which would put them just below Nick Leddy for 95th in the NHL points race. All that for a total cap hit just over $19 million.  

Unfortunately for Habs fans, the news gets much, much worse.

Andrei Kostitsyn, Travis Moen, Jaroslav Spacek, Josh Gorges and Hal Gill are all unrestricted free agents at the end of this season, with P.K. Subban, Carey Price, Lars Eller and Raphael Diaz counted among the team's restricted free agents. 

According to CapGeek, the Canadiens have $39.25 million committed to 11 players for the 2012-2013 season, leaving them just over $25 million under the current cap level to sign the rest of their team.

Players that are overpaid and underperforming deserve the scorn of ticket buyers spending their hard-earned money at the gate. But Habs fans shouldn't direct their hatred solely at the feet of soon-to-be Hamilton Bulldogs forward Scott Gomez. Cap management is Pierre Gauthier's responsibility, and his failure in that regard will be on full display next summer. 

And the summer after that.

The Winnipeg Jets Will Have the Second Happiest Fanbase at the End of the Year

Some people hate a good party. You know the type. They were at the last wedding you went to, the Obama election party you had in 2008 and the gold medal game party you had in 2010.

Killjoys, wet blankets, poopy-pants. Whatever you want to call them, they're a fact of life, and it was expected that they'd show up at what will likely be the biggest season-long party any sports team has ever had.

They (the Debbie-downers) were out criticizing the Jets after their third game (and third loss) against the hated Coyotes (the franchise that left Winnipeg in 1996), some making the absurd pronouncement that Winnipeg would have been better off with Phoenix because of the on-ice product here and now. Such a notion completely ignores the benefit of having a fan base that will love this team unconditionally its first year.

Let's break this down from Winnipeg GM Kevin Cheveldayoff's perspective. You have 13,000 season tickets sold for three years.

The Phoenix Coyotes are the fifth-oldest team in the NHL. The Atlanta Thrashers are the fifth youngest. The Phoenix Coyotes have the 20th overall pick in the 2011 draft. The Atlanta Thrashers have the seventh-overall pick.

Shane Doan and Ray Whitney, two of the Coyotes best players, will be UFAs at the end of the 2011-2012 season. The Thrashers will have no significant UFAs to deal with (note: I do not count fourth defenseman Johnny Oduya, a significant player in this context). 

Don't ask yourself what franchise you'd want in 2011. Ask yourself what franchise you'd want when season ticket holders have to re-up in 2014.

There's really no comparison and, make no mistake, fans in Winnipeg who lived and breathed the tragedy that was 1996 (myself included) are thrilled they got the Atlanta Thrashers. They're also thrilled that Cheveldayoff went with Claude Noel, a Hitchcockian coach who has made it clear throughout this season that the passion of Jets fans this year will not be taken for granted, allowing the River City to sit back and enjoy the ride.

Win or lose, the euphoria in Winnipeg will last through the season. There will be ups and downs and there most certainly won't be a championship to celebrate come season's end. But this honeymoon's built to last and, aside from the eventual home of Lord Stanley's Cup in 2012, this fanbase will have the NHL's broadest smile.