Macatology: Predicting the NCAA College Basketball Seeds

Even though we're only three weeks into the new NCAA college basketball season, it’s never too early to start thinking about The Big Dance. Almost every team has played five to seven games so far this season, so initial impressions have already been made for the 2011-2012 season. Here, I present my debut edition of "Macatology:" a predictive analysis of the NCAA college basketball seeds.

No. 1 Seeds

Duke

North Carolina

Kentucky

Ohio State

Duke moves up to the top line as a result of their hot start to the season (including winning the Maui Invitational), setting up what promises to be a phenomenal showdown with fellow top line squad Ohio State in Columbus on Tuesday night. North Carolina stays on the top line despite the loss to UNLV, with the Kentucky showdown looming on Saturday.

No. 2 Seeds

Syracuse

Louisville

Baylor

Wisconsin

Syracuse is the most solid No. 2 seed after winning the Preseason NIT. Louisville looks like they will be a big factor in the Big East chase this season, Baylor might be the squad to finally end Kansas’ Big 12 regular season crown, and Wisconsin will push Ohio State into the Big Ten and face a huge test by facing North Carolina on Wednesday.

No. 3 Seeds

Connecticut

Florida

Alabama

Missouri

Connecticut lost to Central Florida and were pushed by Florida State in the Bahamas, which may be a concern for a young team. Florida and Alabama look as though they will lead the second tier of the SEC behind Kentucky, and Missouri is off to a good start under their new coach Frank Haith.

No. 4 Seeds

Xavier

Michigan

Kansas

Marquette

Xavier might finally get the recognition they deserve from being in the top 16 since it seems they end up playing on the second weekend every year anyway. Michigan had a good third place showing in Maui, with just a 7-point loss to Duke. Kansas is a young team with losses to both Kentucky and Duke, with a game against Ohio State looming on the horizon, and Marquette is aims for the second tier of the Big East. 

No. 5 Seeds

Pittsburgh

Nevada-Las Vegas

Gonzaga

Vanderbilt

Pittsburgh looks a little shaky with narrow wins over Rider and Penn and losing at home to Long Beach State. UNLV leapt up the ladder with their big win over North Carolina (90-80), Gonzaga has gotten off to their usual good start (4-0), and Vanderbilt has rebounded nicely from an early loss, but has a couple of tests this week with games against Xavier and Louisville.

No. 6 Seeds

California

Michigan State

Virginia Tech

Dayton

California looks like the early front runner in the new Pac-12 with six wins under their belt.  Michigan State always plays a tough schedule, and it’s already costing them (4-2). Virginia Tech had a good showing in the preseason NIT, and Dayton winning the Old Spice Classic has them climbing up the charts.

No. 7 Seeds

Saint Louis

Stanford

Seton Hall

Purdue

Saint Louis looks like the second best team in the Atlantic 10 after winning the 76 Classic.  Stanford could be on the rebound after reaching the Preseason NIT final, Seton Hall has won five of their first six games (but will have a lot to prove in the Big East), and Purdue is solid with their only loss so far to Alabama. 

No. 8 Seeds

Memphis

Missouri State

Florida State

Arizona

Memphis had a rough week in Maui (two overtime losses in three games) and might have to rely on the C-USA automatic bid. Missouri State is leading what is sure to be a hotly contested MVC.  Florida State has risen after taking Connecticut to overtime in the Bahamas, and Arizona will be on California and Stanford’s heels in a below par Pac-12.

No. 9 Seeds

Georgetown

Northern Iowa

Mississippi State

Minnesota

Georgetown is off to a solid start with their only loss to Kansas (a close game at 67-63). Northern Iowa will be in the thick of the MVC race. Mississippi State already has seven wins this year, including victories over Texas A&M and Arizona, and Minnesota builds momentum with a 3^rd place finish in Orlando.

No. 10 Seeds

Harvard

Creighton

Illinois

Washington

Harvard may be the team nobody wants to face after their win in the Battle 4 Atlantis, Creighton is hoping there will be three teams taken from the MVC this year, Illinois may be one of those 8-8 or 9-7 Big Ten teams and Washington would be the fourth team in the Pac-12 but only if the conference improves as a whole.

No. 11 Seeds

Northeastern

Cleveland State

West Virginia

Iowa State

Northeastern might be the team to beat in the competitive CAA this season, with a solid 3-1 record this season already. Cleveland State looks to become the team to end Butler’s streak at the top of the Horizon, but West Virginia may get this spot as a benefit of playing in a tough conference in the Big East, and Iowa State has an edge from transfers that came in last year.

No. 12 Seeds

George Mason

San Diego State

North Carolina State

Indiana

Texas A&M

Georgia

George Mason will be the second team in the CAA if they ride the wave of the conference’s deep run last year, and San Diego State could get a second bid for the MWC since BYU left the conference. North Carolina State has only lost to Vanderbilt so far this year, Indiana might be ready to rise again behind super freshman Cody Zeller, and Texas A&M must continue to get wins early before getting into Big 12 play.

No. 13 Seeds

Iona

Ohio

Weber State

Central Florida

Iona looks to be the class of the MAAC with a 3-1 record so far this season, Ohio will have a tough time dealing with Kent State and Akron in what is traditionally a one bid league, Weber State will try to get the Big Sky bid for the first time in five seasons, and Central Florida is the last at-large team in and got a big boost from their win over UCONN last weekend.

No. 14 Seeds

College of Charleston

Murray State

New Mexico State

Vermont

College of Charleston looks to be the class of the SOCON so far, recently defeating UMass 85-61. Murray State is trying to reclaim its place at the top of the OVC, New Mexico State had a good 3^rd place showing in Alaska last weekend, and Vermont will get a challenge from Stony Brook in the America East.

No. 15 Seeds

Cal-Santa Barbara

Bucknell

Lamar

Denver

Cal-Santa Barbara is trying for a 3^rd consecutive bid out of the Big West. Bucknell is on a five game winning streak after suffering losses to Minnesota and Vanderbilt. Lamar has played Louisville this year and have games with Kentucky and Ohio State in the next month to help out their SOS, and Denver is looking to leave the Sun Belt on a winning note with an automatic bid.

No. 16 Seeds

Norfolk State

Alabama A&M

Campbell

East Tennessee State

Wagner

North Dakota State

Norfolk State is trying for their first ever NCAA bid from the MEAC. Alabama A&M is trying to get back to the tourney for the first time in seven years, and Campbell is trying to make their return to the Big South a successful one. East Tennessee State hopes to go back to the tourney after missing out for the first time in three years last season, Wagner continues its rise under second year coach Dan Hurley and North Dakota State is off to a perfect start with their win over Fresno State last weekend.

For more college sports observations and musings, follow me on Twitter @TheSportsMac.