BCS Bowl Predictions: Michigan Will Sneak into Sugar Bowl

To put it lightly, the Michigan Wolverines got screwed.

If you want to know how they got screwed, it's a simple matter of their placement in the Week 14 BCS rankings. Michigan came into Week 13 at No. 15, beat Ohio State and was presumably going to move up at least one spot.

Instead, Michigan dropped down to No. 16. The reason this is significant is because the Wolverines need to be in the top 14 in order to be in consideration for a BCS bid. Instead of wrapping up a spot in the top 14, they dropped down and now have to rely on other teams to get them there.

At this point, whether or not Michigan ends up in BCS territory is pretty much a matter of faith. As you can tell by reading the above headline, I have faith that it's all going to work out.

Michigan needs a couple of things to happen. One involves No. 14 Georgia losing to No. 1 LSU in the SEC championship game. After that, it's a question of whether or not No. 15 Wisconsin or No. 13 Michigan State loses the Big Ten championship game. A loss by either one (preferably Wisconsin) will create space for Michigan to move up to No. 14.

However, even then a spot in the top 14 wouldn't be assured. Just behind Michigan is No. 17 Baylor, and the Bears have themselves a matchup against No. 22 Texas this Saturday. A win against them will be worth something, especially in the eyes of the Big 12-loving BCS computers.

If Baylor wins, it could easily leapfrog the Wolverines, who are fresh out of regular-season games with which to build their case.

As I see it, there are two reasons for Michigan to have hope about keeping Baylor in the rear-view mirror. The first is that the Bears could most certainly lose, as they're going up against a tough Longhorns defense that can cause all sorts of trouble. The Bears will also have a banged-up Robert Griffin III, which is another thing that could be the difference between a win and a loss.

The other thing that could help is that a loss by the Longhorns will knock them out of the BCS top 25. Conceivably, this will mean just a slight move up for Baylor.

If everything falls into place, the thinking is that the Wolverines will be a lock for the Sugar Bowl. The Sugar Bowl will need a team to fill its SEC tie-in (LSU and Alabama will be in the title game), and Michigan will be too tempting to pass up. The Wolverines have a lot of fans, and they will travel if it means seeing their team play in a bowl as prestigious as the Sugar Bowl.

Make no mistake, there are a myriad of scenarios, and everything has to go right in order for Michigan to make it to the Sugar Bowl or any other BCS bowl. To say that the Wolverines will get there is going out on a very thin limb.

I'm not about to deny that. But at this point, there are no certainties when it comes to the BCS. There are only possibilities.

Believe it or not, Michigan earning a BCS bid is actually one of the more likely ones.

Week 14 BCS Rankings

Rank	Team	BCS Average
1	LSU	1.000
2	Alabama	.955
3	Oklahoma State	.871
4	Stanford	.856
5	Virginia Tech	.781
6	Houston	.740
7	Boise State	.703
8	Arkansas	.700
9	Oregon	.686
10	Oklahoma	.671
11	Kansas State	.570
12	South Carolina	.568
13	Michigan State	.537
14	Georgia	.535
15	Wisconsin	.458
16	Michigan	.431
17	Baylor	.391
18	TCU	.331
19	Nebraska	.258
20	Clemson	.198
21	Penn State	.138
22	Texas	.133
23	West Virginia	.124
24	Southern Miss	.072
25	Missouri	.059