SEC Basketball: What Early Games Say About Each Team's Tournament Hopes

The preseason tournament schedule is in full swing, and no conference has put in a more impressive showing than the SEC. Mississippi State, Alabama, Vanderbilt and Kentucky have all taken home tournament titles in the last week.

Those strong starts presage a competitive season for a conference with national powerhouses aplenty (including five teams in the AP top 25). After sending five representatives to the NCAA tournament last season, the SEC looks to be in line for even more berths in 2012.

Herein, a closer look at every SEC squad and what the season’s opening games say about their chances for a spot in the big dance in March.

Alabama Crimson Tide

Few teams get the opportunity to exorcise postseason demons as quickly as the Crimson Tide, which avenged last spring’s NIT title-game loss to Wichita State with a 70-60 victory en route to winning the Puerto Rico Tip-Off.

Now they just have to make sure they won’t end up back in the NIT this season—a goal they appear to be well on their way to accomplishing.

The 13th-ranked Tide has picked up right where it left off a year ago, with forwards Tony Mitchell and JaMychal Green carrying the team to the tune of 31.6 points and 16.4 rebounds per game between them.

Alabama will be one of the few SEC teams with a chance to threaten Kentucky’s conference supremacy, and it will be a catastrophic disappointment if it fails to make the NCAA tournament this time around.

Arkansas Razorbacks

New coach Mike Anderson’s rebuilding project in Fayetteville hit an unwelcome roadblock last Thursday when junior forward Marshawn Powell was lost for the year with a knee injury suffered in practice.

Already a long shot to make it to March Madness this season, the Razorbacks may have seen their chances disappear for good with their leading returning scorer and rebounder gone.

Arkansas fell to an unremarkable Houston team the day after Powell’s injury, though Julysses Nobles and company did bounce back to take care of business against Utah Valley yesterday.

Without Powell’s scoring punch inside, though, even Anderson’s high-pressure system (a variation of the “40 minutes of hell” made famous at Arkansas by his mentor Nolan Richardson) won’t be enough to turn an undermanned team into an SEC contender in 2011-12.

Auburn Tigers

The Tigers have gotten off to a predictable 2-0 start on a stunningly weak non-conference schedule. Except for a road date with Big East also-ran Seton Hall, the only challenging game the Tigers will play outside the SEC is the last one, a visit to No. 20 Florida State on Jan. 4.

That being the case, the impressive early performances from the likes of 6’10” center Rob Chubb (17 points and seven rebounds per game) look, at least in part, to be a mirage.

Expect Auburn to come crashing back to earth in January, get pummeled in SEC play and miss the tournament after posting an inflated early record.

Florida Gators

It’s hard to read much into the Gators’ three home wins against overmatched foes, but No. 9 Florida’s lone loss speaks volumes.

The Gators' comeback may have fallen short against No. 3 Ohio State, but the hard-fought 81-74 loss—against Wooden Award favorite Jared Sullinger on his home floor—showed that Florida’s forwards are up to the challenge of supporting its vaunted backcourt.

Make no mistake, the Gators are a lock for the NCAA tournament primarily because of star guards Erving Walker and Kenny Boynton (along with one of the nation’s top freshmen, Brad Beal).

That said, how deep a run they make in March will have everything to do with the play of sophomore center Patric Young, whose 8.5 rebounds and 1.3 blocks a game suggest that he’s ready to help the Gators become Final Four contenders.

Georgia Bulldogs

Like last year’s edition, the 2011-12 Bulldogs are looking like a two-man team.

Unfortunately, unlike Trey Thompkins and Travis Leslie, senior PG Gerald Robinson and freshman backcourt mate Kentavious Caldwell-Pope are not the kind of NBA-bound stars who can carry them to a spot in March Madness.

The Bulldogs haven’t been left completely at a loss by the departures of Thompkins and Leslie, as they showed in yesterday’s solid win over Notre Dame in the CBE Classic consolation game.

However, the 25-point blowout they suffered against No. 18 Cal in the preceding contest is probably more indicative of how they’ll fare against top SEC competition this season.

Kentucky Wildcats

The only challenger to loaded North Carolina for the No. 1 spot in the preseason rankings, No. 2 Kentucky has looked the part in winning the Hall of Fame Tip-Off, a tournament highlighted by a convincing 75-65 defeat of No. 11 Kansas.

Ballyhooed freshman Anthony Davis has delivered immediately, averaging 12.8 points and 7.8 rebounds to place second on the team in both categories.

With All-America candidate Terrence Jones at PF and another rising star at SG in sophomore Doron Lamb, Kentucky looks right on track to fulfill its preseason promise as a favorite to play for the national title.

LSU Tigers

The SEC’s worst team a year ago, LSU is looking like they won’t be an absolute doormat anymore. Although the Tigers did take a pair of tough losses in the Charleston Classic (to respectable Coastal Carolina and Northwestern teams), they also beat Georgia Tech and blew out Western Kentucky.

Senior forward Storm Warren, the lone standout from last year’s team, now has some help on the outside in stud freshman Anthony Hickey (13.4 points, 3.8 assists and 2.6 steals per game).

LSU is still a long shot as far as the NCAA tournament is concerned, but it’s no longer the astronomical chance it looked like it would be after last season.

Mississippi Rebels

Through five game, Ole Miss has exactly the 4-1 record it appeared to be headed for on paper.

Four wins over lackluster opponents, plus a 30-point blowout at the hands of No. 19 Marquette, add up to a third-place finish at the Paradise Jam but not a particularly impressive team performance.

The Rebels are rebounding very well (led by Murphy Holloway’s 8.8 per game), but the offense has not looked ready for SEC competition.

With just 10.8 assists per game as a team, Ole Miss is going to have a very tough time creating shot opportunities against high-level defenses, leaving the NCAA tournament out of reach for another season.

Mississippi State Bulldogs

The biggest surprise of the young season (in the SEC or elsewhere), the Bulldogs took down No. 18 Texas A&M and No. 16 Arizona to win the 2K Sports Classic and climb to No. 24 in the AP poll.

Dee Bost has delivered on the promise he showed in a suspension-shortened 2010-11, averaging 16.8 points and 3.8 assists a game to lead the team in both categories.

Even more encouraging for Mississippi State has been the play of UTEP transfer Arnett Moultrie, a 6’11” center who’s racked up 15.2 points and 11.2 rebounds a night.

With those two added to enigmatic (but talented) junior PF Renardo Sidney, the Bulldogs have no excuse for not returning to the NCAA tournament after a two-year absence.

South Carolina Gamecocks

The Gamecocks didn’t look anything like a tournament team coming into the season, and a 2-2 start has done nothing to change that impression. Early losses against Elon (on the road) and Tennessee State (at home) have set a discouraging tone for South Carolina’s season.

To be fair, this squad isn’t as bad as its record looks, especially considering that they only lost to Tennessee State by a single point.

The Gamecocks will also get some help when standout guard Bruce Ellington finishes up his football duties (he’s a wide receiver) and joins the team.

Unfortunately, none of those factors will be enough to put South Carolina in the big dance this season.

Tennessee Volunteers

Although the Vols’ 2-2 record doesn’t look any too remarkable, new coach Cuonzo Martin has to be impressed with his charges’ performance in the early going.

After winning a pair of warmup games at home, Tennessee has put in two strong showings in the Maui Invitational, losing 77-67 to No. 6 Duke and 99-97 to No. 8 Memphis in double OT.

Martin’s up-tempo system has made a star out of sophomore PG Trae Golden, who’s averaging 19.7 points, 7.3 assists and 3.3 boards a game.

Despite returning just one starter from last year’s squad, Tennessee is looking like a team that could play its way onto the tournament bubble by the end of the season.

Vanderbilt Commodores

Yes, the Commodores suffered the worst upset of any SEC team so far when they fell at home to no-name Cleveland State.

However, the hard-fought win over Oregon State that earned them the championship of the Legends Classic is a better indicator of No. 22 Vandy’s postseason prospects.

The Commodores are without the services of star center Festus Ezeli (sprained knee) for most of the pre-conference schedule, so their early record probably won’t reflect how dangerous a team they are.

If Ezeli is back for the Dec. 29 road game at No. 17 Marquette, look for that to be a watershed moment in a Vanderbilt turnaround. The Commodores have the talent and experience to challenge mighty Kentucky for the SEC title and cruise to an NCAA tournament bid.