NFL Week 12 Picks: Green Bay Packers and Thanksgiving's Thankful Teams

The best part of Thanksgiving Day after the family and food is the football. There are three good games coming up this Turkey Day, and here are the teams you can expect to win and why. 

Packers at Lions:

This will be the 20th time the Packers and Lions faced off on Thanksgiving. In the previous 19 games the Lions have the edge 11-7-1. However, the Packers have won four of the five games in this millennium, and Aaron Rodgers is 1-0.  

It is a strange thing to say, but the Packers are actually pretty far below the radar for a 10-0 team that are the defending Super Bowl champions. In fact, it seems like there has been so little 16-0 talk that they've had to generate it themselves. 

The fact they are virtually unstoppable on offense is a given. Aaron Rodgers is having arguably the best season by a quarterback in NFL history, or at the very least presently has the best passer rating in NFL history.

What's frightening is that they are really coming around on defense too. As a unit they have 19 picks, the most in the NFL.

Detroit quarterback Matthew Stafford has thrown six picks in the last two games, and the Lions gave up 409 yards of offense to the Carolina Panthers. 

The Lions might have the home-field advantage, but that's the only one they will have. Look for the Packers to continue their march for perfection. Packers 38-31. 

Dolphins at Cowboys:

The Dolphins and Pokes played one of the more memorable, perhaps even the most memorable Thanksgiving Day game ever in 1993. After they missed the game-winning field goal attempt, Leon Lett inexplicably tried to recover the ball. Touching it made the ball live, and the Dolphins recovered it. Getting a second chance, they kicked the winning field goal. 

Six years later, the Cowboys avenged the Thanksgiving loss shutting out the Dolphins 20-0 to hand Miami their only Turkey Day loss in six tries. They are 3-1 in those games against the Cowboys,. 

This year look for the Dolphins to get their second loss, even though they are as hot as they are. The problem is that Dallas is hot too. Tony Fiammetta is expected to be back and that makes a huge difference in the Pokes' running game, and it's not exaggerating to say huge. When he plays, the Cowboys average 5.6 yards per carry. When he doesn't, they average 3.2.

He was sick last week, which is why DeMarco Murray struggled a little, but he is expected to play this week and that will be enough to give the Cowboys the win. When Tony Fiammetta plays, he opens holes for the running game. That makes defenses play on their heels and helps the passing game. 

The Dolphins defense has really come alive of late and they've given up just 278 yards a game in their three-game winning streak. Their problem is that the Cowboys have been playing excellent defense their last three games too, and have forced nine turnovers during their three-game win streak. 

It should be another great Thanksgiving game, but this time I don't think the Cowboys will "Lett" (you see how I did that!?) the Dolphins get a win. Cowboys 28-24.

49ers at Ravens

The NFL Network really scored a win with this one. This would be one of the premiere games of the week, even if it wasn't the Thanksgiving prime-time matchup.

Neither team has ever lost on Thanksgiving Day, though that's not quite as impressive as it sounds. San Francisco is 3-0-1 and this will be Baltimore's first game ever. 

The teams feature two of the three best scoring defenses in the NFL. San Francisco gives up a positively stingy 14.5 points per game. They also are first in the NFL in turnovers forced with 26. The Ravens are third in scoring against with 17.6 points per game and tied for sixth in forced turnovers with 21.

Getting the picture. This is going to be a defensive struggle in spite of featuring two of the best backs in the league in Ray Rice and Frank Gore. 

Look for this game to be hard fought and low scoring. In the end the Ravens will win because they just have more big-play receivers. While the 'Niners will lose, they will fend well for themselves. Ravens 13-10.