NFL Picks Week 12: Choosing the Winners

With Thanksgiving Day coming up, Week 12 may arguably be the best week of the football season. We get three games on Thursday, some great college football games on Friday and Saturday and  then 12 games on Sunday.

That being said, early games this week calls for some early winners. So here are the Week 12 NFL picks.

Thanksgiving Day Games

Green Bay at Detroit

Obviously this was a game that became highly anticipated when both teams were undefeated early on in the season. However, since starting the year 5-0, the Lions have just won just two of their last five games. But after Week 11, the offense is clearly back on track and will definitely put up some points on the Packers' weaker defense.

On the contrary though, Green Bay's offense is even more efficient than Detroit's and the Lions defense has allowed an average of 30 points in four of their last five games. Plus we all know how the Packers can score while not turning the ball over.

As for Detroit, Matthew Stafford is still a few steps back of Aaron Rodgers and turns the rock over a couple of times.

Packers over Lions

Miami at Dallas

Maybe there'll be another Leon Lett moment since Miami is playing at Dallas on Thanksgiving Day (see video). In any event, the Dolphins come in on a three-game win streak as do the Cowboys.

Dallas has a solid defense that allows only 328 total yards per game (227 pass, 101 rush), and an average of 14.6 points during the win streak. As for Miami, the 'Fins have made a complete turnaround and scored an average of 28 points in each of the last three games.

That in turn will be the most even of matchups since the Cowboys' pass offense ranks No. 6 to Miami's No. 25 ranked pass defense. Dallas uses the run game sparingly and exploits the Dolphins' weakness.

Cowboys over Dolphins

San Francisco at Baltimore

In The Harbaugh Bowl Jim takes his 9-1 49ers into Baltimore to play John's 7-3 Ravens. San Fran comes in with an eight-game win streak while the Ravens continue to play well again great opponents, but terrible against inferior ones.

So, the question is whether Baltimore can maintain that trend this week against the 49ers. Frisco runs the ball well and uses the passing game when needed, so the Ravens will need to stack the box to stop RB Frank Gore while manning-up in coverage.

When Baltimore has the rock, attacking the 49ers' weak pass defense is key, so expect a few deep balls to Torrey Smith to stretch the field. Also, expect some screens and draws from Ray Rice to keep San Fran off balance.

Ravens over 49ers

Sunday Early Games

Minnesota at Atlanta

Regardless of whether Vikings RB Adrian Peterson plays or not, the Falcons will stack the box all game and force Minnesota to throw. Obviously Minny is better off with Peterson, however, with no passing game they won't be able to keep pace with The Dirty Birds.

Atlanta has a balanced offense and a good enough ground game to move against Minnesota's rush defense. But with such a weak pass defense, the Falcons take flight throughout.

Falcons over Vikings

Cleveland at Cincinnati

Let's put it this way, if Cincinnati can play well on the road against Baltimore, then there's a good chance they'll win over Cleveland. The Bengals have the No. 11 pass defense (actually their weakness) to counter Cleveland's No. 23 ranked pass offense (also their strength), so the Browns will get shut down no matter what.

All Cincy will have to do offensively is not turn the ball over and run the football, plain and simple.

Bengals over Browns

Tampa Bay at Tennessee

As evidenced by their 1-3 road record (1-4 in you count the neutral site game against Chicago), Tampa Bay will once again lose on the road. Tennessee usually plays better at home (excluding the Texans game), so the Buccaneers shouldn't be a problem.

The Titans have a much better pass defense and rush offense (as of recent) than Green Bay, and Tampa still struggles stopping teams and turning the ball over.

Titans over Buccaneers

Carolina at Indianapolis

It's a game that looks like a possible win for the Colts, however, Carolina's offense is too explosive for Indy to stop. And although the Panthers defense has vulnerability, they still are solid against the pass.

If the Colts have any success it will be on the ground, but that still won't be enough to keep pace with Cam Newton and Carolina.

Panthers over Colts

Arizona at St. Louis

The last time these two teams played, Arizona rookie CB Patrick Peterson won the game on a punt return for a TD in overtime. Now, even though that may have been a rarity, it proves that the Cardinals have the special teams advantage.

Both teams are weak offensively, but at least Arizona has Larry Fitzgerald while the Rams have Chris Long on defense. That said, the Rams have the better ground game and will double-team Fitz on defense.

Rams over Cardinals

Buffalo at NY Jets

The Jets were the first team to exploit the Bills by keeping their offense off the field and not turning the ball over. Buffalo's defense may rely on turnovers but they don't do it consistently enough to win games.

The Jets however, got a reality check from Denver and don't have to deal with a pass rush in Buffalo. So the ground game will work and Mark Sanchez will have ample time to throw.

Jets over Bills

Houston at Jacksonville

Houston may be dealing with injuries, but their defense still ranks in the Top 5 against the rush and pass. They also rank inside the Top 10 with 28 sacks, so rookie QB Blaine Gabbert will be under a lot of duress.

When Houston has the ball however, the Jaguars need to stack the box and stop Houston's ground game. Matt Leinart won't be asked to do too much and shutting down the run is Jacksonville's weakness.

Texans over Jaguars

Sunday Late Games

Chicago at Oakland

Regardless of how long Jay Cutler is out, the Raiders will win this game anyway. Oakland has a rush offense that will keep Chicago off balance and a pass offense that's gradually getting better.

Defensively, the Raiders will zero-in on RB Matt Forte and although he'll still get solid numbers, it won't be enough to win. Also, as great as Devin Hester is, Oakland has their own solid return man in Jacoby Ford. So if he returns, look out.

Raiders over Bears

Washington at Seattle

The Redskins are now on a six-game losing streak and if Seattle can beat Baltimore at home, Washington shouldn't be a problem.

The Seahawks do have a respectable defense and an offense that's gaining confidence, so unless the Redskins can be more consistent offensively, Seattle wins thanks to forcing turnovers and a solid ground game.

Seahawks over Redskins

New England at Philadelphia

This is more of a big game for New England as Philly's playoff hopes are basically over, but expect the Eagles to play the spoiler role. The Pats' got a solid win over K.C. and Philly just upset the Giants.

However, the Eagles don't have anyone who can cover TE Rob Gronkowski along with the rest of Tom Brady's targets. And although the Pats' defense is still their weakness, they don't allow a whole lot of points despite the yards.

Patriots over Eagles

Denver at San Diego

It's a must-win game for both teams and the Chargers are riding a five-game losing streak. The problem is, they can't run the ball nor can they stop the run. So, anticipate Denver to just run the ball all day.

Then on the flip-side, the Broncos have a stout pass rush that will force pressure on Philip Rivers. Therefore, Denver will either get sacks, force fumbles or pick off some passes. Broncos' toughness is the intangible difference.

Broncos over Chargers

Prime-Time Games

Pittsburgh at Kansas City

No matter who's under center for K.C., The Steel Curtain defense will dominate. The Chiefs moved the ball well but only mustered up three points against a weak Pats' defense, so don't expect anything against Pittsburgh.

When the Steelers have the ball, reverting to the ground game should be the main priority as the Chiefs allow almost 140 rush yards per game. In turn, that will set up the pass nicely later on.

Steelers over Chiefs

NY Giants at New Orleans

If there's one team that can beat the Saints in New Orleans it's the Giants. New York has a 6-4 record but is 3-2 on the road. Although they have the same home record, based on the loss to Philly it's easy to tell that the Giants play better and more consistent in away games.

As for the Saints, they rarely, if ever, lose at home and this week will be no different. The Big Easy's pass offense is anything but, when it comes to stopping it and their defense can step up in clutch situations.

Until New York can establish an effective ground game (ranks No. 31 in rush offense), New Orleans rolls.

Saints over Giants

Last Week: 10-4

Overall: 95-65

Follow John Rozum on Twitter @ Sportswriter27.