Neymar Transfer: Will He Move to Real Madrid, Barcelona or Chelsea?

“It's like putting the gloves of a heavyweight champion on the hands of an unproven featherweight and telling him to go out there and knock out the opposition.”

Those were the words Ashley Cole conjured up in his autobiography to describe a then 19-year-old Cesc Fàbregas.

Cole’s analysis (which proved to be wrong) can be attributed to Santos’ 19-year-old prodigious forward Neymar.

He is literally a featherweight with a heavyweight transfer fee.

Let’s analyse his career so far, his inflated transfer fee, if he is worth that fee, which clubs he would move to and whether or not he would succeed in the upper echelons of world football. 

Neymar’s Current Situation

Neymar recently signed a contract extension through to 2014, which is the year Brazil host the FIFA World Cup. 

Santos will have to cough up R$20.4 million a year in salary to the teenager and it is clear what their motive is. 

Barring unforeseeable circumstances, Neymar will continue to perform for Santos and perhaps even better his current results. Going into the FIFA World Cup, his contract would have been extended to, say, 2017. 

If Brazil win the World Cup and Neymar wins the Golden Ball, then that is when Santos will hold an auction of Neymar. 

Risks in Santos' Strategy

Neymar's safety 

I hope Santos have a security team around Neymar and his family because R$20.4 million a year is a way out for some people with nefarious intentions.

There is more to life than kicking a ball around, and if something was to happen to Neymar or his loved ones because of his earnings, one wonders what type of psychological damage it could do to the teenager.

Loss of form

R$20.4 million a year perhaps with bonuses and potentially the ability to earn more will be incentive for Neymar to continue his excellent form. 

What if he loses that form? He could just be a flash in the pan like Nii Lamptey. 

Career-debilitating injury

Every game Neymar plays, Santos are praying that he will not suffer a career-debilitating injury. They will do this for three years and if he does unfortunately suffer such an injury, say bye-bye to that monumental transfer fee. 

Comparing Neymar to Other Brazilian Exports

• Ronaldo (1994): Cruzeiro to PSV Eindhoven for £4.8 million. Two years later, PSV sold Ronaldo to Barcelona for £13.2 million.

• Roberto Carlos (1995): Palmeiras to Inter Milan for £3 million. A year later, Inter Milan sold Carlos to Real Madrid for £5.3 million. 

• Rivaldo (1996): Palmeiras to Deportivo La Coruña  for £10.5 million. A year later, Deportivo sold Rivaldo to Barcelona for £20.7 million. 

• Denílson (1998): São Paulo to Real Betis for £21.5 million (world record transfer fee at the time). Seven years later, Denílson leaves for Bordeaux on a free transfer. 

• Ronaldinho (2001): Grêmio to Paris Saint-Germain for £4.5 million. Two years later, PSG sold Ronaldinho to Barcelona for £28 million. 

• Kaká (2003): São Paulo to A.C. Milan for £7.3 million. Six years later, A.C. Milan sold Kaká to Real Madrid for £57.2 million.

• Robinho (2005): Santos to Real Madrid for £21.1 million. Three years later, Real Madrid sold Robinho to Manchester City for  £37.8 million. 

With the exception of Denílson, Brazilian clubs generally sell themselves short when European clubs poach their star asset. 

This explains why Santos are trying to inflate Neymar's transfer fee; players like him come once every decade.

Look at Kaká: São Paulo only sold him for £7.3 million and A.C. Milan ended up making a £49.9 million profit. 

Real Madrid

Santos President Luis Álvaro de Oliveira Ribeiro slammed Real Madrid for their "unfortunate and arrogant attitude, typical of a colonial mentality" in attempting to sign Neymar. 

Translation: Real Madrid didn't offer what Santos requested. 

I cannot envision Neymar fitting into the current Real Madrid team, let alone obeying José Mourinho's commands. 

Mario Balotelli, someone who is more conducive to European football, came off second best when he attempted to wage a cold war with the Special One. 

Mourinho won the treble with two of Inter Milan's most talented youngsters (Balotelli and Davide Santon) watching and thinking what could have been if I had listened and obeyed. 

Barcelona

If I can be crude, Neymar would fit in well with Barcelona because he is a prolific diver. 

Neymar has moved into the centre for Santos and that is the same position Lionel Messi plays at Barcelona. 

I recall Neymar having a t-shirt which said "It's good to be the king."

At Barcelona, Neymar wouldn't even be the prince, let alone the king—court jester perhaps? 

"Més que un club"—more than a club—is Barcelona's motto.

Even though Barcelona have been engulfed with diving and being sore losers, the last thing they need is to add a problematic and egotistical forward like Neymar.

Romário didn't even last three seasons.  

Chelsea

Neymar's propensity to dive and his love of audacious highlight reel skills will not go down well with Premier League defenders. 

Chelsea need exciting and youthful players, but one has to ask: how will Neymar adjust to the cultural barrier of London and if he is willing to play tough week in, week out?

Even if he can tough it out, can he control himself and not get himself sent off? 

I watched him get fouled all over the place against Atlético Mineiro and he vented to the one person who did not foul him—the referee, who sent Neymar off. 

If Neymar was to choose England as his destination (which would be an unwise decision), one can only assume it would be for monetary purposes. 

It's not 2004; Chelsea are not the richest club in England. 

Manchester City

Let's assume Neymar scores 40 goals a season for Santos and wins the Golden Ball as Brazil win the 2014 FIFA World Cup. 

£100 million for Santos and perhaps £1 million a week for Neymar. 

How could those offers possibly be turned down? 

Juventus

Pelé could have been a Juventus player if not for the Brazilian government listing the prolific goalscorer as a national treasure. 

Juventus cannot offer the most money, they don't have the world's best players and I'm sure someone like Neymar would prefer Milan over Turin. 

A.C. Milan and Inter Milan

Neymar going to A.C. Milan sounds logical given the Brazilian contingent there and his potential link-up with Alexandre Pato. 

Inter Milan seems more of an outsider, plus the likes of Philippe Coutinho and Kerlon hardly getting playing time isn't going to be a positive spin for Neymar. 

The only way I see either club signing Neymar is if he suffers a career-debilitating injury or goes through a barren run of form and Santos want to sell him as soon as possible. 

Paris Saint-Germain

Paris Saint-Germain are the only club in the world that can rival Manchester City in spending. 

The French club are owned by the Qatar Investment Authority, who are estimated to hold $60 billion worth of assets. 

If Real Madrid and Barcelona cannot afford Neymar, then it would turn into a bidding war between Manchester City and PSG. 

Anzhi Makhachkala

Owned by the self-made Russian billionaire Suleyman Kerimov, Anzhi Makhachkala have risen from relative obscurity to a recognisable name in European football. 

Samuel Eto'o is the highest paid footballer in the world, but he has played for Real Madrid, Barcelona and Inter Milan and won everything there is worth winning. 

Neymar will be venturing into Europe having won nothing. 

Neymar will want to play for a club like Real Madrid or Barcelona; if not, then he will want to earn the most amount of money. 

Makhachkala cannot contend with Manchester City or Paris Saint-Germain on that front. 

My Opinion of Neymar

Everybody is kung fu fighting...

The end to the Copa Libertadores final between Santos and Peñarol was a farce. 

You had Fabián Estoyanoff going all Bruce Lee and then you had Neymar stomping on a Peñarol player who was already down. 

This itself sums up Neymar—emotionally fragile. 

Then again you could say the same thing about Diego Maradona and Zinedine Zidane. 

Some of things Neymar can do with the football are outrageous. 

I believe he is the most overhyped player in recent memory, but I wouldn't say he is overrated; the talent is there. 

If I was managing him, I'd advise him not to play for an English club, because he will go bonkers and lose it when Premier League defenders start giving him extra attention. 

Please read Premier League Transfers: Top 11 Rumours of the Week by Position.