Arsenal: After EPL Round 12, Five Questions May Still Worry Gooners

The air seems to have cleared at Arsenal, and everyone appears to be breathing easily.

As a matter of fact, a congratulatory spirit has infected both Gunners and Gooners lately. Even journalists have repented and are writing good stories about Arsenal for a change. 

The BBC, for example, had a nice review of the Arsenal-Norwich match, as did the Guardian and the Telegraph. The Independent gave an affirming review, and Fox Soccer did not lack good things to say about it either.

The unsaid consensus seems to be that Arsenal have turned the much needed corner.

While this may well be, a few questions may yet linger in the minds of a few Gooners.

What is the prognosis for Arsenal from here? Have Arsenal put to bed their old issues once and for all? Will the team finish among the top four come May? Is fortune finally smiling on the team?

The slides expand upon these questions. 

Will Things Go Downhill from Here?

For now, Arsenal have locked in sixth or seventh position on the premiership table. The run of eight matches starting next weekend may not affect this position. I analyze this in the second question below.

Arsenal, however, are at a critical juncture this week and next. If they manage their next three matches without any violence to their confidence, they are likely to go on and finish the rest of the campaign strongly.

First, they have a much improved Borussia Dortmund to contend with in midweek. This match is critical because it determines whether or not Arsenal make it into the knockout stage of the UEFA Champions League and whether or not they do so in a favorable position.

A loss to Dortmund and a win for Marseille means Arsenal relinquish leadership of Group F. It would also mean that Dortmund could usurp them for second position. (Even a draw could prove damaging.) But more damaging, it would do harm to the confidence of the team, the repercussion of which could lead to a bad result at the weekend.

Then there is Manchester City a week after in the Carling Cup in midweek. A defeat against Dortmund is unlikely to help this cause. Whereas, the contrary would not only be an impetus for a good result against Fulham, it could also instill a belief that City can be beaten.

Arsenal couldn’t ask for the worst of times to play Manchester City, since this match has a bearing on the premiership fixture. To stand a chance against City, Arsenal must beat Dortmund in midweek. The effect will be as cathartic as the victory over Chelsea.

Recall that Dortmund just beat Bayern Munich at the weekend, not a mean fit.

A result against them therefore will do wonders for Arsenal since it would signify that the corner just may have been turned. More importantly, though, it would add to the momentum going into the stretch of eight matches in the next six weeks—not counting the Champions League return match against Olympiakos and, of course, the dicey affair against City.

Things could go downhill from this point. Arsenal could lose to Dortmund in midweek, drop points against Fulham at the weekend, lose to Manchester City and from thereon play with tails between their legs, having lost the too-precious confidence they have worked so hard to build in the last two months.

Let’s hope for the opposite scenario.

Will Their Anchor Hold in the Next Six Weeks?

Is this team a new Arsenal or is the jinx very much alive, the susceptibility to collapse at a time when the opposite is the required quality?

Against Olympique de Marseille in Marseille and against Borussia Dortmund in Dortmund, Arsenal displayed the resolute quality that Manchester United have perfected over the years—grind-out results even when not playing particularly well. In fact, Arsenal showed this quality against Udinese during that worst of times in August, when everything appeared to fall apart.

In the match against Norwich, the old Arsenal made snatches of appearances, but more on that later.

The next six weeks is when Arsenal need to show a spine of steel, shed their reputation for brittleness, be shrewd in difficult matches, contrive to not let the opposition back into a match they apparently control.

If they are to finish in the top four, they can afford to drop only five points at most. But even so, they’d only consolidate their current position on the table. To finish better than sixth come early January, they need to win seven matches and lose only one—a tall order, which is, in fact, unrealistic.

Find below a census of fixtures for Arsenal and their immediate competition for top four position: Tottenham Hotspur, Newcastle, Liverpool and Chelsea.  The table includes my projection for each team’s result in the coming stretch of eight matches. I give a brief commentary for each team and then state a conclusion at the end.

Arsenal
Date	Where	Opponent	Interval	Projected Result	Alternate Projection
Nov. 26	H	Fulham	7	3	3
Dec. 3	A	Wigan	7	3	1
Dec. 10	H	Everton	7	3	1
Dec. 18	A	Man. City	8	0	1
Dec. 21	A	A. Villa	3	1	0
Dec. 26	H	Wolves	5	3	3
Dec. 31	H	QPR	5	3	1
Jan. 02	A	Fulham	2	1	0
Total				17	10
Projected Premier League Points				39	32

Newcastle
Date	Where	Opponent	Interval	Projected Result	Alternate Projection
Nov. 26	A	Man. Utd	7	0	1
Dec. 3	H	Chelsea	7	1	3
Dec. 10	A	Norwich	7	3	3
Dec. 17	H	Swansea	7	3	3
Dec. 21	H	Westbrom	4	3	3
Dec. 26	A	Bolton	5	1	3
Dec. 30	A	Liverpool	4	0	1
Jan. 04	H	Man. Utd	5	1	1
Total				12	18
Projected Premier League Points				37	43

Tottenham Hotspur
Date	Where	Opponent	Interval	Projected Result	Alternate Projection
Nov. 26	A	Westbrom	6	3	1
Dec. 3	H	Bolton	7	3	3
Dec. 11	A	Stoke City	8	3	1
Dec. 18	H	Sunderland	7	3	3
Dec. 22	H	Chelsea	4	3	1
Dec. 27	A	Norwich	5	3	3
Dec. 31	A	Swansea	4	3	1
Jan. 03	H	Westbrom	3	1	1
Total				22	14
Projected Premier League Points				47	39

Chelsea
Date	Where	Opponent	Interval	Projected Result	Alternate Projection
Nov. 26	H	Wolves	6	3	3
Dec. 3	A	Newcastle	7	1	0
Dec. 12	H	Man. City	9	1	1
Dec. 17	A	Wigan	5	3	3
Dec. 22	A	Spurs	5	1	0
Dec. 26	H	Fulham	4	3	3
Dec. 31	H	A. Villa	5	3	3
Jan. 02	A	Wolves	2	3	3
Total				18	16
Projected Premier League Points				43	41

Liverpool
Date	Where	Opponent	Interval	Projected Result	Alternate Projection
Nov. 27	H	Man. City	7	1	0
Dec. 5	A	Fulham	8	1	3
Dec. 10	H	QPR	5	3	3
Dec. 18	A	A. Villa	8	1	0
Dec. 21	A	Wigan	3	3	3
Dec. 26	H	Blackburn	5	3	3
Dec. 30	H	Newcastle	4	1	3
Jan. 03	A	Man. City	4	0	1
Total				13	16
Projected Premier League Points				32	35

Position	Table Projection 1		Table Projection 2
3	Spurs	47	Chelsea	41
4	Chelsea	43	Spurs	39
5	Newcastle	43	Newcastle	37
6	Arsenal	39	Liverpool	32
7	Liverpool	36	Arsenal	32

COMMENTARY

Newcastle

Of the five teams, Newcastle have the toughest schedule in terms of the quality of the opposition. Not only do they play Manchester United twice (Nov. 26 and Jan. 04), they also play Chelsea—albeit at home—and Liverpool away.

They, however, have the easiest schedule of the five teams, in terms of both the number of fixtures to play and the interval between fixtures. The first owes to the fact that Newcastle are playing neither the UEFA Champions League nor the Europa league. The second may be put down to sheer good luck.

They therefore hold an advantage over their counterpart, benefiting from longer periods of rests.

Nevertheless, owing to the quality of their opposition, I see them taking only 12 points from the possible 24. This is my conservative projection. The more liberal one has them taking 18 points.

If they are able to take 18 points from the eight matches, they should have 43 after Round 20 of the Premiership. This might put them in fifth Position on the Premiership Table. The conservative projection will have them on 37 points, but still fifth of the premiership table.

Liverpool

Liverpool have a tough schedule as well, but they, like Newcastle United, are not playing in any of the UEFA competitions. Thus, as far as the first four of the eight matches go, they should have it easier than either Chelsea, Spurs or Arsenal.

However, since they play Manchester City twice, they face a possibility of dropping six points from these two fixtures alone. My best projection for Liverpool against Manchester City is two points. They are likely to lose away in January, and they may only take a point from the corresponding home fixture next Sunday.

Liverpool also play Newcastle, a difficult match by any estimate. They could, however, take the three points from this encounter. A point is my worst projection for them. QPR and Aston Villa are a duo of matches that will likely test Liverpool’s mettle.

Overall, my best projection for Liverpool is 16 points from the possible 24. The worst has them taking three points less. Their position on the premiership table after this round of matches is likely to be sixth and seventh respectively. I have them down with 36 or 32 points at that juncture.

Chelsea

Despite the blip in their form in late October, Chelsea will consolidate their number three position on the table come early January. This is despite having to play two difficult opponents en route—Manchester City at home and Newcastle away.

Although I project a draw in the first case, Chelsea may just be the team that could end Manchester City’s current unbeaten run. If they do, they’ll be three points better than my best projection for them after Round 20 of the Premiership.

Chelsea, though, could lose away to Newcastle.

Nevertheless, I see them taking at least 18 points from the possible 24. My worst projection is 16 points. In early January, Chelsea should have 43 points in total—possibly 41. At this point they’ll either be third or fourth on the premiership table.

The particular position will depend on how Tottenham Hotspur finishes at this point.

Tottenham Hotspur

Although Spurs play Chelsea at home at the very beginning of the congested and testing four-match marathon, the good news for them is that the match happens at the beginning of the race rather than at the end of it, even if they play Chelsea four days after their match against Sunderland.

But—hey—no one is having it easy at this time either. As a matter of fact, Spurs have the easiest opposition of the five teams, Chelsea notwithstanding. They could quite comfortably take 22 points out of the 24. If they don’t, it will be a significant missed opportunity. 

Even if they mangle this opportunity, they should still be able to take 14 points from the eight matches. I project a total of 47 points for them at the end of Round 20. The conservative projection has them on 39 points.

In early January, they will either be third or fourth on the premiership table, and still with a game in hand. As Ledley King has observed, this may just be Spur’s year.

Arsenal

Where Arsenal finish in early January may owe less to the kind of opposition they play in the stretch of eight matches and more to what happens in the two non-premiership matches, starting with Borussia Dortmund on Wednesday and then Manchester City a week after in the Carling Cup. See above.

As far as this stretch of matches is concerned, it represents both an opportunity and a curse. Let me borrow from the subject of my fifth question, and allow me to appeal to superstition briefly.

Fortune or luck may play a big part in where Arsenal end up on the Premiership Table by early January. If the goals come as just reward of hard work, if bad officiating does not intervene, if Arsenal do not shoot themselves in the foot, if no major injuries overtake the squad, then they could advance by two positions on the table and be closer to realizing the dream of finishing in the top four.

Bad luck is when you work hard and the goals refuse to come, when the referee seems intent to make you lose the match, when you concede freak goals or penalties, or when injuries decimates your rank. This applies to other teams, of course. Let’s hope that good not bad luck is the attending train to Arsenal in the next six weeks.

Except for the match against Wolverhampton Wanderers at home, none of the eight fixtures is an easy match. My projection for Arsenal is conservative—call it tough love or call it realistic assessment, take your pick.

I see them taking 17 points from the possible 24, or 10 points if they have a bad run. They may lose to either Aston Villa away or to Fulham in the very last fixture of the stretch. The realistic expectation is that they’ll lose away to Manchester City.

Arsenal should have either 39 or 32 points overall by early January. 39 points should be enough to keep them at sixth position on the table. 32 may take them down a peg. Although I project that their worst finish by January might yield them the same points as Liverpool, goal difference should favor Liverpool, however.

If Arsenal finish four points better than my projection, they should be on 43 points by early January, which corresponds with my projection for both Chelsea and Newcastle. Should this happen, Arsenal would be in a strong position to challenge for fourth or third position on the table.

CONCLUSION

17 points from a possible 24 will be a strong finish for Arsenal after eight matches. They would have lost just one match—against Manchester City—won five and drawn two. However, they could easily draw four matches and lost 2 and have just two wins. This will represent a lost opportunity.

A possible good news for Arsenal comes from the fact that they play Manchester City after the latter had played Chelsea. If Chelsea beat City, Arsenal may play them at a time when their confidence is dented. This could rescue Arsenal from certain defeat. Then again, a defeat at Chelsea could make City more dangerous.

Empirically, if Arsenal get a result from this encounter, they could finish with 40 points instead of 39, even if they draw at Villa and Fulham.  The trick for Arsenal is not to let the second of my projections come to pass.

Is the Jinx Broken for Good?

What jinx?

The jinx that makes you throw away a match when winning by as comfortable a margin as four goals; the je ne sais quoi that makes you throw away a trophy in the last moment of a match of which you are in firm control; the thing that makes you score five goals but still lose a match by a goal against an opponent that scores only two.

Yes, the jinx.

That thing that makes you consistently collapse during the second half of seasons when you are in a great position to win the title.

The jinx.

The thing that threatened to surface in the match against Norwich when the ball would not enter the net. I call it luck. But again, there may be no such thing.

If so, let’s hope that the fruit of hard work always manifest, that the players do not invent new ways to lose matches, that Theo Walcott, Robin Van Persie, Gervinho, Mikel Arteta et al remain injury-free for the rest of the campaign, and that more John Terrys slip at the right moment.

Is the Djinn Bottled for Good?

I refer to the Djinn that bit Per Mertesacker in the match against Norwich; that made Alex Song stick out his knee at Blackburn; the thing that had bitten Laurent Koscielny first; the same thing that turned him and Wojciech Szczęsny all benevolent against Obafemi Martins last February.

It, apparently, is not, since it bit Per Mertesacker just a day ago. It needs to return to the bottle if Arsenal hope to make anything out of the current season.

Are Arsenal Gullible or Naïve?

A number of times I’m convinced that Arsenal are too full of themselves. This is especially true when they play lesser opposition—teams like Norwich or Wigan, for example. They seem to think that the mere name “Arsenal” is enough to win such matches.

I believe I saw this attitude surface for about a quarter of the game against Norwich, right after the equalizer. If you are able to watch the replay (not highlights) notice how the Arsenal midfield goes missing.

For the last 25 minutes of the first half, Arsenal could not keep the ball well. It looked to me like a collective lethargy—an attitude that seems to say, “Never mind, this is only Norwich, we’ll score any time we want.”

Sorry, this is not Annie, where things can turn right tomorrow.

The bigger issue I’m alluding to here is ruthlessness. Real Madrid trash their opponents with as many goals as seven routinely, Barcelona too, as did the old Invincibles. Manchester City are showing it currently.

Ruthlessness is lack of mercy for the opposition insofar as winning the match is concerned. When you trash your opponents, you build a reputation for yourself and others begin to fear you, which is only good for you. When Arsenal trashed Chelsea last year, Manchester City turned all “trembly” and turned defensive at the Emirate, a good thing since they couldn’t summon the courage to attack us.

Against Chelsea this season, Robin Van Persie showed it, which is why we won in the end. It is an essential quality for success. It is only naivety when players think they can remove their feet from the gas any time they want and still win.

Everyone is happy about the Norwich result because Arsenal won. A different story would ensue had Norwich tied the match, which they nearly did. I seem to be the only person not happy with this match. I am not, because of the foregoing reason.

Lackadaisical attitude, senseless infringement such as Andre Santos committed during added time are elements the team needs to do away with if it is to rise from average to greatness.

Gullibility comes into the picture for the exact reason that makes Arsenal assume the match is done and dusted when, in fact, there’s still enough time for the opposition to score equalizing or winning goals.

In comparison, Manchester United have the opposite attitude; they always believe they’d win even when losing.

Naivety and gullibility are two words that should be banished from an Arsenal dictionary.

Has the Wheel of Fortune Turned?

This is related to the question of jinx above. I merely want to point out that sometimes things just work your way. What Arsenal need is to have things work their way in the coming six weeks. They’d be okay if they do.

A bonus question: Have Gooners finally alienated Wenger?