Adrian Peterson: How Long It Will Take AP to Crack Top 5 RBs All Time?

While the Minnesota Vikings have continued to struggle to find their identity, Adrian Peterson has been the one bright spot on a team that has fallen to last place in the NFC North.

With 846 rushing yards, Peterson is currently fifth in the NFL. Since joining the league in 2007, he leads the NFL in rushing and has never finished a season with less than 1,200 yards.

Even taking into account those running backs that entered the league after 2007, like Chris Johnson, Peterson has the highest rushing average at 94.7 per game since 2007.

Ranked 61st in career rushing yards, there are only eight active running backs ahead of Peterson.

One of those is LaDainian Tomlinson. In 11 NFL seasons, Tomlinson is currently sixth all-time with 13,662 yards, and needs only 91 yards to catch Jerome Bettis. Averaging only 18.6 yards per game for the Jets in 2011, he should surpass Bettis by the end of the season.

With 6,628 yards in 70 games, Peterson will need more than 7,000 yards to get near the top five, and 11,707 to match the current career rushing leader, Emmitt Smith. 

During an interview earlier this month, I had the chance to ask Peterson how long before he joins the elite company of the top five running backs of all time. Before providing an answer, he turned the tables, and asked me what I thought. While in his answer, Peterson did not offer any timetable, I'm using his past performance, and comparing to the top rushers of all time to predict just when, and not if, he will crack the top five.

Peterson has played in 70 of 73 regular season games since joining the Vikings in 2007, this calculates to an incredible 95.8 percent. 

If Peterson can maintain his current rushing average of 94.7 yards per game, and continue to play in 95 percent of regular season games, his rushing total will rise to the fifth best in the seventh game of the 2016 season. By the end of the 2016 season Peterson would have 14,500 yards, good for fourth place on the all-time rushing list, moving past Curtis Martin.

It will take almost another three years to catch Emmitt Smith, as Peterson will surpass Smith in the 10th game of the 2019 season. It will mark Peterson's 13th year in the league, two fewer than the 15 seasons Smith played with the Cowboys and Cardinals.

Of course, it is unlikely that Peterson can maintain the level of performance he has demonstrated in his first four and half seasons. There will be a slight drop off each year as his career progresses.

In order to project a more likely scenario, I calculated the average yards per game for the top six running backs over their entire careers. This came to 84.4 yards per game.

Using this average to project Peterson's future rushing totals pushes the timing out only slightly.

By the end of the 2016 season, Peterson will have 13,704 yards, enough to push him past Bettis and Tomlinson. 

In 2017, Peterson will pass Curtis Martin's total of 14,101 in the fifth game of the season, and finish the season with 15,000 yards.

By 2018 he will pass Barry Sanders for third place in the fourth game of the season. Peterson's total by season's end will be approximately 16,300 yards.

Another six games in 2019, and Peterson passes Walter Payton for second place.

The crowning achievement comes when he surpasses Smith in ninth game of the 2020 season. It will be Peterson's 14th season in the NFL, one less than Smith played.

The only problem I foresee getting in Peterson's way of becoming the NFL's all-time leading rusher, is if the Vikings continue to struggle. The emotional drain of playing on team in constant rebuilding mode, could prompt him, like Sanders, to call it quits while still performing at a high level.

Sanders abruptly retired after his 10th season, finishing the season with 1,491 rushing yards for the 5-11 Lions. 

Somehow, I don't get the impression that Peterson will quit. As long as he is able to run with a football in his arm, he will continue to play in the NFL.