UFC 139: Final Million-Dollar Predictions from the B/R Staff

Dale De SouzaNov 18, 2011

UFC 139 is the perfect example of a card that fight fans dreamed about, but never thought would happen.

Headlining this history-making event in San Jose, California is a Light Heavyweight clash between two of the greatest fighters in Mixed Martial Arts history, as former UFC Light Heavyweight Champion Mauricio "Shogun" Rua returns on the heels of a sensational win over Forrest Griffin to combat former Strikeforce Light Heavyweight Champion Dan Henderson.

Below that bout is a headliner featuring the debut of Cung Le, who brings a background with the American Kickboxing Academy as well as a wicked Sanshou striking regimen. He serves himself as a challenge to one of the greatest fighters of this generation in Wanderlei "The Axe Murderer" Silva, but Silva comes into this fight with the knowledge of what happens if he should lose.

If Silva loses, retirement could call his name and one of the most exciting MMA careers could end in an instant, regardless of whether Wanderlei wants to end it himself or not.

Below the co-headliner are three various affairs: a Bantamweight affair between Urijah Faber and Brian Bowles with UFC Bantamweight title ramifications, a Welterweight affair between Rick Story and Martin Kampmann and one of the more underrated Light Heavyweight battles of 2011 as Stephan Bonnar takes on Kyle Kingsbury.

It's all right here as UFC 139 comes to you this Saturday night, and with the official B/R staff predictions, my name is Dale De Souza, bringing you the greatest and best predictions on the web with the help of my always deadly partners-in-crime John Heinis, Jordy McElroy and Jeffrey McKinney!

Stephan Bonnar vs. Kyle Kingsbury

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Jeffrey McKinney: Stephan Bonnar and Kyle Kingsbury are two guys who can scrap.

They may not be at the top of the light heavyweight division, but theyare two guys who are capable of giving fight of the night performances.

Although Bonnar is the more experienced of the two, Kingsbury is more technical and is on a four-fight winning streak.

Bonnar is never one to give up as he has literally never tapped and his only TKO losses have come by cuts.

This is a tough match to call, but I believe the younger Kingsbury will pick up the win.

Kingsbury by decision

Jordy McElroy: Bonnar’s strategy coming into this bout should be to defend incoming takedowns and best the standup exchanges. Kingsbury, a former collegiate football player, is a physical specimen, and Bonnar will have to stay on his toes as the bout drags into the deeper waters.

On the other hand, Kingsbury should engage Bonnar on the feet, but he needs to mix in takedowns to ensure that he wins rounds.

Kingsbury boasts knockout power on the feet, but Bonnar could be the most resilient fighter in the sport. Unless Bonnar finds a way to finish, this bout is likely going the distance, and Kingsbury’s job is to make sure he’s ahead on the scorecards when Bruce Buffer renders the verdict.

As long as the bout stays upright, fans can expect an action-packed light heavyweight battle that could make a case for fight of the night.

The standup will be dead even, but Kingsbury will begin to pull away as he secures enough takedowns to earn the nod of at least two judges.

(Kyle Kingsbury by Split Decision)

John: “The American Psycho” Stephan Bonnar is on a two-fight win streak, and has a very winnable fight on hand in his UFC 139 opponent, Kyle Kingsbury.

Bonnar has great Muay Thai and solid jiu-jitsu, and his aggressive pace makes him a fighter who is almost always fun to watch.

Also realize that Bonnar is durable as can be, having two cut KOs (one of which was bogus) in his seven losses being the only way an opponent has finished him early.

Meanwhile, his opponent Kingsbury boast a four-fight win streak in his own right, and has a pretty respectable 11-2(1) overall record.

However, the Randy Couture look-a-like (in his prime) has probably only fought one guy you’ve ever heard of in Tom Lawlor, and lost via unanimous decision.

Also, keep in mind that due to extenuating circumstances, Kingbury got a second fight on The Ultimate Fighter after losing his first…and he lost again.

The guy is really nothing special in the cage, and completely gassing out and losing a round to Fabio Maldonado in his fight on the TUF 13 finale is perfect evidence of such.

Kingsbury may be able to stand with Bonnar for a round at best, but once it goes to the ground, he has no chance.

Stephan Bonnar via second-round submission (rear naked choke)

Dale De Souza: Stephan Bonnar's come a long way since that war with Forrest Griffin at the first Ultimate Fighter finale, but Kyle Kingsbury hasn't been too far off himself.

While Kingsbury still has one of the worst nicknames I think I have ever heard in my life, one can't deny that when he engages in a stand-up battle, he usually delivers some type of memorable performance.

Actually, his win over Fabio Maldonado at The Ultimate Fighter's Season 13 Finale was honestly one of the best fights I'd seen from Kingsbury, because even though both men gassed and had their moments where they slowed down a bit, they still brought the fight to each other, and that's what Kingsbury should anticipate from Bonnar.

Bonnar's shown improvements in his striking and in his ground game, but his takedowns stood out to me the most when he fought Igor Pokrajac.

That being said, it's been quite a long time since Mr. Bonnar had himself that bout with Pokrajac, and of all the things Kingsbury is, he is not Igor Pokrajac.

Bonnar is not a high-caliber wrestler that could take a grizzly down at will, and Kingsbury's takedown defense will show in high doses against Bonnar, who will be forced to contend with the striking of Kingsbury.

On the feet, Bonnar is a scrappy sort or guy, but if you ask me, Kingsbury is just too diverse on the feet.

As for a finish, that may be easier said than done, but once this one's in the books, there will be no question about who gets the win here.

Winner: Kingsbury by close Unanimous Decision

Martin Kampmann vs. Rick Story

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John: Anyone who read Kampmann’s recent interview with MMA Sucka knows he isn’t happy with his recent losses to Diego Sanchez and Jake Shields. He is also bringing a lot of fire into his bout with Rick Story.

On the other hand, Story looked like the next big thing at 170 pounds after winning six in a row in the UFC with a huge upset over former title contender Thiago Alves.

The UFC 130 victory had story just a couple fights away from a meeting with GSP, that is until Nate Marquardt was fired and subsequently banned from the UFC just days before a UFC Live 4 showdown with Story.

Charlie Brenneman admirably filled in on hours notice and managed to pull off the upset, bringing “The Horror” Story back down to Earth.

Fans and fighters alike made note that taking two fights within the same 30-day time period is probably not a great idea.

Background aside, Kampmann is a far better striker and Story the far better wrestler.

When talking straight BJJ, “The Hitman” has the advantage, but Story’s wrestling and power advantage say he very tough to deal with once he gets on top.

Honestly, I wouldn’t be surprised to see either guy win here, but I think Story proves the Alves win wasn’t a fluke, while the loss to Brenneman was.

Rick Story via unanimous decision (29-28, and the judges actually get the decision right this time)

Jeffrey: Rick “The Horror” Story was on six-fight winning streak and on his was to being a top contender in the welterweight division before he lost to Charlie Brenneman at UFC on Versus 4.

Kampmann is coming off of two losses to title contenders Diego Sanchez and Jake Shields.

Kampmann’s fights proved why you should never leave it in the hands of the judges. Although his fights were close, he didn’t do enough to sway the judges.

Although Story has never been finished, Kampmann has proven that he can be dangerous in both the stand-up game and on the ground.

If Kampmann can put the pressure on Story and not keep the fight close,he should be able to get back in the win column.

Kampmann by decision

Jordy: Martin “Hitman” Kampmann will try to avoid missing a third consecutive mark when he takes on Rick “The Horror” Story.

As long as the bout stays in the center, Kampmann will have a major advantage in the striking. While Story continues to see improvement in his standup, he doesn’t possess the technical prowess of Kampmann.

The outcome of this bout will depend on Kampmann’s ability to keep the fight standing and stay out of close-quarter exchanges.

While Kampmann is technically a better striker, he has to avoid getting Donkey Kong’d on by Story’s power. Story is willing to walk through punches in an attempt to land a fight-ending haymaker.

Kampmann needs to take the technical high road in landing in the open and angling off when the pocket closes.

If Story can bait Kampmann into wild exchanges, he should definitely pursue that option. Sanchez saw success on the feet against Kampmann when he was able to close the distance and fire off in the pocket.

As a fighter, it is always important to try to be exciting, but Story can’t allow his hope to please fans ruin his top-10 position in the division. With such a strong wrestling pedigree, he has the wrestling to put Kampmann on his back and control from top position.

Story should win this fight, but an insatiable appetite for throwing down in the pocket will write “The Horror” his own horrific ending.

A bloody, back-and-forth battle will come to a devastating conclusion as Kampmann drops a fatigued Story in the third round and finishes up with a salvo of ground strikes.

(Martin Kampmann by Round 3 TKO)

Dale: Opening point: I picked Diego Sanchez to beat Martin Kampmann, and even I thought Kampmann won that fight, just as I thought Shields lost to Kampmann.

I still think both, regardless of what the records officially say.

Alright, angry year-old fit out of the way.

Now back to business..

If this fight is anything, it's something reminiscent of the stylistic clash Story faced when he fought Thiago Alves.

Of course, Kampmann is not as big as Alves, and while Kampmann has actually won bouts by submission before, Alves didn't earn a straight-up submission win until UFC 138 a few weeks ago.

In any event, Kampmann is a threat to Story, and honestly, he's more of a step up for Story than is Story a step down for Kampmann.

Story's got some serious strength in his upper body and some rather heavy hands, and while Kampmann is a good striker, the Dane could find himself in a spot only familiar to Story.

Expect "The Horror" to try and press Kampmann against the cage and wear Kampmann down, but expect him to press the action throughout his aggressive offensive striking as well, and don't be surprised if you see Kampmann dropped and eating some nasty ground and pound from the rising star.

This is a tough fight to call, but while I like Kampmann's drive in this bout as much as I like Story's drive, I'm liking Story's chances just a little bit better.

Winner: Story by TKO in R3

Urijah Faber vs. Brian Bowles

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Jordy: A shot at the UFC bantamweight title could be on the line when top 135-pound contenders Urijah Faber and Brian Bowles go to war in a bout that should have more energy than a elementary school playground.

Considering the nature of the styles involved, this is an incredibly tough bout to strategize for. The winner of this fight will edge the standup exchanges and come out on top in the grappling scrambles.

Faber showcased a nice leap in his striking in his championship bout with Cruz, but he has to avoid becoming one-dimensional. Bowles is a stud wrestler, and he should be able to shrug off any takedowns that come off telegraphed or rehearsed.

He needs to be aggressive and try to keep Bowles guessing with a mixed attack of striking and takedowns.

For Bowles, the game plan is practically the same as Faber’s. He has to find a way to edge “The California Kid” in the standup exchanges and beat him in the ground transitions.

Bowles is a top-three bantamweight for a reason. He boasts serious knockout power, world class wrestling and incredible strength for a 135-pounder. This is a tough fight for Faber.

For those into betting, Bowles may be a good pickup as an underdog.

With that said, Faber should be able to do enough to eke out rounds and take a close decision.

(Urijah Faber by Unanimous Decision)

Dale: The general understanding of this bout goes as follows: Urijah Faber and Brian Bowles have never fought, never been lined up to even cross paths, and neither has been as focused for a title eliminator as they both are for this bout.

For a couple of 135-lb. dudes, both guys are exciting in the cage, and Urijah tends to be a rather fun guy outside of the cage, but come fight time, Urijah's only idea of fun is stomping Bowles out and proving why he deserves that rubber match with Dominick Cruz.

It's pretty funny we even say such a thing, because for Bowles, it's all about the rematch he never got to have against Cruz, but for Bowles to get that rematch, he needs to do what only Cruz, Tyson Griffin, Jose Aldo and Mike Brown have done.

In essence, the two are pretty evenly matched, with both guys being pretty athletic, both guys having good submissions, and both having good knockout power for a couple of Bantamweights.

Is the underdog the better bet in this scenario?

Possibly, but really the end of the bout should not surprise anyone either way because both guys are considered among the elite of the division as it stands currently.

Smart money, however, favors the favorite, and Faber will look the part as he puts together the same striking and takedown offense that was responsible for his three-year reign as WEC Featherweight Champion of the world.

Winner: Urijah Faber by Unanimous Decision

Jeffrey: Faber and Bowles will meet in a matchup that should determine who isnext for Dominic Cruz.

Both men are very versatile and both have tasted WEC gold before.

Both men have also lost to Dominick Cruz.

Faber of course is the more well known and experienced of the two.

If he can avoid getting caught by Bowles and use his wrestling to overpower him, he should be able to pick up the win.

Faber may be 4-4 in his last eight fights, but his losses have all comein title fights.

Faber by decision

John: Bowles gave an interesting interview this week in which he he basically said that Faber is the popular jock in this fight, whereas he is the nerd outcast.

An odd analogy for two men in their 30s well beyond high school, but it actually makes sense.

The majority of UFC fans will be seeing Bowles for the first time, despite him being 10-1 and a former WEC bantamweight champion.

Meanwhile, Faber is 4-4 in his past eight fights, including going 0-3 in the title fights during that approximately three-year span.

However, his past successes have made him the face of the little guys in the UFC, some can argue more so than Jose Aldo or Dominick Cruz.

Faber wasn’t exactly unknown in the WEC either, being one of the main reasons people knew the featherweight division existed.

With that being said, Faber is the better grappler with Bowles being the better striker.

However, “The California Kid” has some striking chops while Bowles has decent takedowns and, like Faber, is a brown belt in BJJ, so don’t expect a complete styles clash here.

It may be safe to say that Faber is no longer in his prime, but Bowles also has had about 1,000 injuries since losing the WEC bantamweight title to Cruz in March of last year.

I really want to believe Bowles that Faber is simply the more well-known fighter, but I’m just not buying it from a guy who has one big win in his career.

Urijah Faber via split decision

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Wanderlei Silva vs. Cung Le

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Jeffrey: Cung Le and Wanderlei Silva are two of the best strikers MMA has ever seen.

Silva was king in PRIDE FC thanks to his brutal brawling fighting style that included vicious knees and heavy punches.

Le on the other hand uses a Sanshou style that features many spinning back kicks and fists.

Although Le has only had eight MMA fights, he had a perfect kickboxing record of 16-0. His seven MMA wins have also come by (T)KO.

Silva has the experience factor going for him and is surprisingly the younger fighter (Silva is 35 while Le is 39).

Although Le has been away from the sport for over a year to focus on acting, he still has an edge coming into the fight.

Silva just is not the fighter he once was.

He’s only 2-6 in his last eight fights. Four of those six losses have come by knockout,including his 27-second fight with Chris Leben.

Le could take this fight pretty decisively.

Le by KO in the first round

John: The UFC actually booked this fight? Wait…this fight is the co-main event??? My goodness…I wasn’t particularly excited to see Vitor Belfort knock out Le, and now this matchup is much worse.

First of all: I think more people in the general population know Le as the guy who played Marshall Law in the Tekken movie than an MMA fighter. Sad but true.

Anyway, “The Human Highlight Reel” didn’t have a professional fight until he was 33 years old, and has only had eight total fights.

His wins over Frank Shamrock and Scott Smith were impressive, but he is an incredibly one-dimensional striker.

Lucky for him, “The Axe Murderer” has not had any interest in taking a fight to the ground in years.

Wandy is also 2-4 in his past six UFC bouts, getting knocked out in three of those four losses.

Nostalgic Pride fans can find salvation in this card’s epic main event, not this fight, since Silva’s chin has officially turned to glass at this point.

Le is no top 10 fighter, so hopefully Wanderlei realizes it’s time to retire when he has to be picked up off the mat one more time.

Le via first-round KO

Jordy: Kickboxing legend and action movie star Cung Le jumps right into the fire in his UFC debut against former Pride middleweight champion Wanderlei Silva.

There won’t be any director yelling “cut” in the octagon, as Silva looks to erase a first-round knockout loss to Chris Leben in July at UFC 132.

Cung Le isn’t a brawler. He’s a tactician. The only loss on Le’s MMA record came to Scott Smith in December 2009, and Silva could definitely take some notes from that bout.

Smith found success when he was able to close the distance and make Le exchange punches in the pocket. On the outside, Le’s kicks are some of the most lethal in all of MMA, but when forced into pocket exchanges, he tends to scramble away from the action instead of countering.

Le needs to keep this bout in the open and use his kicks to maintain space against Silva. The worst place he can be is trapped against the fence under fire of an advancing Silva.

Le needs to be patient and look for opportunities to land. With Silva’s kill-or-be-killed mentality, Le will have his chances to land, but he has to avoid lingering in the pocket. He needs to throw a strike, angle off and reset his offense.

Silva has the most unpredictable style in the sport. With such aggressive style, there is always the chance he gets clipped and goes to sleep early.

Still, it’s tough to bank on Le’s struggles to counter a strong boxer and a lack of full-time dedication. Scott Smith is a respectable fighter in MMA, but an attempt to balance a career of competing against world class athletes and lighting up the silver screen alongside Channing Tatum is catastrophe waiting to happen.

Look for Silva to close the distance early and maul Le with a barrage of vicious punches en route to a first round knockout.

(Wanderlei Silva by Round 1 KO)

Dale: There is a part of me that is glad that Wanderlei stepped up when Vitor Belfort had to pull out of this fight, but then there's the other part of me that thinks that not even stepping up will save his UFC run unless he knocks Cung Le out.

The question is can he do it?

Wanderlei has been through war after war, creating not only the arguable diamond standard of Muay Thai in MMA history (as I once called it), but also creating some of the sport's best fights.

At the same time, though, even Wanderlei admits he's never faced a guy as good at striking as Le before, and no matter how big a Wanderlei Silva fan you might be, that much is true.

None of the men that that faced Wanderlei so far have brought what Le does to the table, and the consensus seems to be that Le is all but a lock to beat Wanderlei Silva, regardless of the fight and how it plays out.

Le's striking is very beastly, very deadly and very convincing enough to where he'd be an easy Knockout of The Night if it were any other opponent, save for Anderson Silva or Chael Sonnen.

There just one little problem, though: Wanderlei Silva is not just "any other opponent."

He's the man that takes two steps forward where others might take three steps back when it comes to pushing the pace and trying to finish without caring about getting knocked out and being a punchline later on, and against Cung Le, he's a man that has nothing left to lose.

Expect this one to start slow, but end quick, but don't bet too much on Le knocking Silva out.

This one may not be vintage Wanderlei, but after this one, it'll be hard to argue about whether he's back or not.

Winner: Wanderlei Silva by R1 Rear Naked Choke.

Mauricio Rua vs. Dan Henderson

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Dale: Whether it happens Saturday or happened in PRIDE, the anticipation for this is at its all-time high.This is another one of those fights in which the outcome will not surprise me.

Both men provide an exciting stand-up display, and the differences are key: Shogun has a solid BJJ game with some diverse striking and some sick hammer fists, but Henderson's got a very well-known wrestling game..

To put Shogun's Muay Thai into perspective, he doesn't just want to punish you, he wants to destroy you mentally with his Muay Thai before his killer instinct kicks in, but to implement it properly, Shogun has to mind that right hand of Henderson, and many a man knows about what Henderson's right can do.

This is another one of those fights in which the outcome will not surprise me no matter which way the fight goes, but as good as Shogun is, and he is good, Henderson will be a little bit better come Saturday.

Of course, the way this one ends for Henderson should not come as a surprise at all.

Winner: Dan Henderson by KO (Right Hand) in Rd. 2

Jordy: As with Chuck Liddell and Wanderlei Silva, this bout is well past its prime, but luckily, Mauricio “Shogun” and Dan Henderson’s ability to stay relevant in the 205-pound division over the years still makes for a solid main event.

Shogun needs to dictate the pace of this fight and avoid being baited into wild, unnecessary exchanges. Henderson is a master at closing the distance and firing off haymakers in the pocket. Shogun showed a strong chin in his bout with Jones, but no human can withstand a clean “H bomb” from Henderson.

He needs to pick his shots and avoid getting trapped against the cage. In the open, Shogun should have a definitive advantage with his precision strikes and kicks.

We all know Henderson loves to swing for the fences in search of a knockout, but at 41 years old, his chin isn’t quite what it used to be.

Despite showing a great ability to recover, Henderson has been dropped by a punch in his last couple of fights. His aggressiveness is his best weapon, but he needs to avoid getting careless. If he gets clipped in this fight, there likely won’t be any coming back.

Even at his age, Henderson has the wrestling to present a threat to any light heavyweight in the world. If he uses his boxing to setup takedowns, this fight would quickly swing to his favor. Henderson has the skill set to make things tough on Shogun, but his gunslinger mentality will ultimately be his undoing.

Look for the former Pride champion to get overzealous in the standup exchanges and get tagged with a Shogun counter. It will be an old school finish as Shogun locks up the Thai plum and goes to town on Henderson with knees and punches.

(Mauricio “Shogun” Rua by Round 2 TKO)

John: Ah, now here’s a main event basically any fan can sink their teeth into. Two of the most dominant Pride superstars of all time finally face off in the Octagon.

Unfortunately for Shogun, his UFC career has been compromised by injuries and the first question fans have when he has a fight scheduled is “which Shogun is going to show up for this one?”

The former UFC light heavyweight champion says he’s healthy and ready for this fight, claiming he will be the first man to knockout Dan Henderson.

Unlikely, considering Hendo is a 14-year fight veteran with 36 bouts under his belt, but everyone’s chin fails them at some point and Henderson is 41 years old.

Don’t count the old guy out though, as he is one a three-fight win streak, also victorious in six of his past seven.

His only loss in that frame was at middleweight to an always game Jake Shields, which is worth knowing as well.

Hendo’s wrestling base and patented “H-Bomb” are enough to keep him in just about any fight, but a healthy Shogun would be a very tough challenge to overcome.

I think Shogun does show up, but Henderson’s chin stands the test of time one more time and manages to end this thing in spectacular fashion.

Dan Henderson via second-round KO

Jeffrey: In a match featuring two former Pride champions, Dan Henderson will take on Mauricio “Shogun” Rua.

Henderson and Rua have had their fair share of success since leaving Pride with Rua becoming UFC light heavyweight champion and Henderson becoming a Strikeforce champion.

Rua looked impressive in his most recent fight against Forrest Griffin.When Rua is healthy he is without a doubt one of the best fighters in the world.

That he will need to be against a veteran like Dan Henderson.

Although Henderson is a tough Greco-Roman wrestler, his biggest weaponi s his right hand.

If Henderson can land the H-Bomb on you, you’re going to sleep.

Rua will have the speed advantage coming into this fight, but if he slips up, he will go down.

My guess is Henderson will take the fight to the ground at some point and try to finish Rua there.

Henderson by TKO