Columbus Blue Jackets: GM Howson Has Decisions To Make

On Tuesday they finally got some, with the Ottawa Senators dealing Joe Corvo and Patrick Eaves to the Caronlina Hurricanes for Cory Stillman and Mike Commodore.

Many see this trade as the first of many leading up to the deadline while many others, including myself, said "finally—some action!"

The question now becomes whether the Columbus Blue Jackets will be active.  Former GM Doug MacLean only made a couple of minor deals at the deadline last season, most notably dumping Anson Carter to offload salary for whatever he could get (a 5th round pick from Carolina) a few days before the deadline.

MacLean also moved backup goaltender Ty Conklin to Buffalo at the deadline for another 5th round pick.

Pretty boring day from a Columbus perspective.

This year I forsee a lot more activity coming from Nationwide Blvd.  The Jackets are right on the bubble of the playoff picture but I think regardless of whether they stay in the hunt or not, they will make some moves.

The Jackets are just loaded with the juicy kinds of pieces Stanley Cup hopefuls desire: Experienced veterans, especially those with playoff experience, who are on the last year's of their contracts.  These players are often referred to as "rentals".

I'm going to rank the probability of these Blue Jacket "rentals" (with percentage) getting traded starting with #1:

1. Sergei Fedorov—95%—Yes I know Columbus is thin at center, but Sergei Fedorov is not the answer and is not in the long terms plans of this franchise.  His value will be too high at the deadline not to move him and acquire assets that could help the Jackets in the long term.  These assets could be in the form of young roster players or high draft picks that could be used to acquire the right piece in the offseason.  Sergei Fedorov will not be the difference in the Jackets' playoff hopes.

2. David Vyborny—85%—It is obvious now that Vyborny's game does not work in coach Ken Hitchcock's system.  I think GM Scott Howson deals him for whatever he can get—he will be this year's Anson Carter so to speak. 

He's the only remaining orginal Blue Jacket and it will be a sad day when he moves on but tough decisions (like trading Shelley) have to be made to move this franchise forward.  Dealing Vyborny will not hurt  playoff chances in Columbus either.

3. Michael Peca—50%—I think Peca's future really depends on how the Jackets fare during their upcoming five game road trip.  Peca is gelling really well now with Jason Chimera & Nik Zherdev and that line is emerging as Columbus' best.  If the Jackets remain on the cusp of the playoffs he'll be retained—especially if Federov is dealt.  If they fall out of contention then I think he's dealt to a legit contender to have another chance at Lord Stanley. 

Concievably, Columbus could collect another pick or middle of the road prospect by dealing him.  I think Howson will give him some input if there are multiple interested parties.

4. Ron Hainsey—30%—Hainsey is another guy I don't see in the Jackets long term future.  He's had a good year but I doubt Columbus will want to pay what Hainsey will demand at the end of the year and would rather use that money to invest in a higher caliber puck-moving defenseman.  I think his immediate future will ride on how Dick Tarnstrom performs over the next two weeks.  If Tarnstrom excels, Hainsey could become expendable at the deadline, allowing the Jackets to collect more assets.

I think it's unlikely he moves, as the Jackets need all the puck-movers they can get—even though Hainsey still struggles at times to find the open man on the rush.  He could prove to be too valuable towards a playoff push to deal.

5. Adam Foote—20%—All indications point towards Foote wanting to stay and the Jackets wanting to keep him.  Ever since Hitchcock arrived and started utlizing Foote to his strengths (ES and PK), Foote has been a much more effective player.  It's been reported that both parties would like a 2 year deal which I think is reasonable.  The question now becomes money.  If the two sides can agree on a fair price then I think Foote will be re-signed.

According to Puck-rakers, Howson and Foote are meeting again today.  If talks break down then I think Howson has to deal what's best for the franchise and ship him for assets.  His value on the market could override his value towards a playoff push if the

the two can't come to an agreement

6. Jan Hejda - 10% - I'd be absolutely shocked if both Foote and Hejda got dealt and out of the two, I think Foote would garner more value on the market for his playoff experience and "name recognition".  Besides the lack of depth, Hejda has been just as valuable, is cheaper and is younger.  I can't see the Jackets giving him up unless that "right" deal comes along.  Ultimately his value towards helping this team overrides his value on the market.

So that's the list of unrestricted free agents to be (i.e "rentals") but I don't think it stops there.  Although unlikely, here are a couple of more names from the Jackets roster who may be shopped:

1. Dan Fritsche—Will be a restricted free agent after this season and could be attractive to some teams.  Fritsche hustles and has 8 goals but the Jackets need more scoring and are deep at wing.  He could be part of a larger deal to bring back the "right" piece.

2. Manny Malhotra—He's got a year left on his deal but I'm not convinved that the new regime (Howson/Hitchcock) are sold on Manny.  He's great in the face-off circle but what else does he really add?  If someone inquires about Malhotra I think the Jackets will listen closely.

3. OK Tollefsen—I think the Jackets have big plans to upgrade on defense this offseason but if, for instance, the Oilers do want to move a guy like Pitkanen, Tollfesen could be part of a package to go the other way.  The Jackets don't have a lot of toughness on the blueline and losing Tollefsen would hurt in that area but I think he would be available again for the "right" piece.

Not all of these guys will go anywhere at the deadline mind you. In fact I think just two, maybe three guys, out of this group will be dealt.  Ideally Howson will look to return young roster players or prospects who are near full time NHLers, but I think he would settle for picks that he can perhaps deal later on this offseason for roster players.  Teams with Cup dreams will be hesitant to deal anything off their current roster out of fear of complicating things for their playoff runs.

Remember that Howson is going to do what's best for the franchise.  The Jackets are not cup contenders yet and that is the ultimate goal here—to build a team to win the cup—not just for one year but for many years.  If he sees a deal that may slightly hurt the team this year but could really be a big piece towards buidling that cup contender down the road, he will pull the trigger.

In contrast to that, if he's sees a short term solution that can help us now without sacraficing plans for the future (a la the Tarnstrom deal) then I also see him pulling the trigger.

Luckily Columbus has some competent leadership now who I fully trust as a fan to make the "right" moves.

So there you have it. I'll be blogging quite a bit on potential trades leading up to the deadline. Soon I'll attempt to look into my crystal ball and predict a couple of CBJ trades so check back often!