Andrew Luck: Does he project better than Cam Newton?

I do not think most people have acknowledged it, but the 2011 and 2012 draft classes have the potential to produce one of the best quarterbacking crops in consecutive years in recent history. 

It is well known that Andrew Luck has and will be the most coveted prospect leading up to both drafts, but given the surprise performances of Cam Newton and Andy Dalton, there is a chance that these two drafts could have anywhere from 2-5 great QBs drafted from them.

Andrew Luck has been crowned by most as some variation of the ‘best prospect they have ever seen’ or at least the best since John Elway or Peyton Manning at the most recent, so to say that the winner of the 2012 sweepstakes would be fortunate would be an understatement. 

However, when Luck decided almost inexplicably to return to school last year, many thought that the 2011 class of QBs was left naked without a sure bet star, and was rated rather low by most draft analysts.  There were a lot of questions surrounding front liners Cam Newton and Blaine Gabbert, and while many were impressed with guys like Christian Ponder, Jake Locker, Ryan Mallett and Andy Dalton, few expected a ton out of any of these players early.

Instead, right off the bat Cam Newton set the world on fire with two rookie record-setting performances in his first two weeks as a pro, and has continued to shut up each and every naysayer that doubted him going into the draft and beyond. 

Andy Dalton has led a Cincinnati team that many thought would be the worst in the league and took them to an AFC conference-leading 6-2 record.  He has been fairly efficient and poised in leading the Bengals' offense and has been anything but a game manager. 

Christian Ponder stepped in unexpectedly for Donovan McNabb after the Minnesota offense sputtered through the first several games of the season and provided them with a much needed spark to get them going, possibly making them a factor on the NFC North again.

The 2011 class has proven to be not only adequate, but also pretty strong and the QB that most draft experts rated the highest as a prospect, Blaine Gabbert has probably been the least impressive. 

Meanwhile, despite the fact that the 2012 class does not appear to be nearly as good outside of Luck, it seems that the simple chance that a team lands this young man trumps anything that any other class has presented in recent past.

This leads me to an honest question. 

Given the fact that Cam Newton has played at an unbelievable level and given the clinically dead Carolina Panthers have some life and hope—which has made them competitive in every game this year (including a near upset of the seemingly unstoppable Green Bay Packers)—and the fact that everyone’s mouth seems to water like a hungry dog around a piece of meat when the name Andrew Luck is mentioned, who would you rather have in 2012 and beyond?

With Andrew Luck, it is undeniable that you have a player that is probably the most pro-ready that any college quarterback has ever been in decades.  He is big, strong, tough, can make all the throws ACCURATELY with touch, is smart, has a good pocket presence, is mobile and has a good head on his shoulders. 

He seems to bounce back from bad games and bad mistakes easily, and simply checks out magnificently on any checklist that you can create to predict pro-success.

On the other hand, you have a player in Cam Newton that was heavily questioned and often doubted as a pro prospect.  However, he has since given us a half season of data to work with which seems very favorable towards him being a budding superstar in this league.  He has demonstrated tremendous poise, awesome leadership and charisma, unprecedented physicality and athleticism to go along with a strong and surprisingly accurate arm. 

Additionally, he also possesses humility and coachability that defies all of what we knew Cam Newton to be as Auburn’s poster boy last year. 

Newton has revived Steve Smith’s career and made him elite again, making a once run-only team, a high-powered passing attack that ranks  fifth in the NFL in passing yards/game.  Could ANYONE have envisioned that going into this year given the Panthers passing woes last year?  Also, what about the perception that Cam would not be an effective passer, especially early in his career? 

One of the big stories this year, especially with the Manning-less Colts going down the drain this year without their leader, has been the talk of team’s considering “tanking” games to position themselves to win the “Luck sweepstakes” in next year’s NFL draft. 

I find it pretty hard to imagine that teams would dare try to lose games on purpose, given the pride that the players have and the short life-spans each player’s career represents.  I also find it rather appalling that not just some, most have suggested that ANY team that gets the No. 1 pick next year or has a chance at it should draft Luck without hesitation.

I agree that of the team’s realistically in the running for the No. 1 pick next year, almost all of them would do themselves a favor getting Luck-y but there are a few exceptions. 

I believe that the Rams, despite the fact that it appears Luck will project better, should hold onto Sam Bradford and give him an honest shot at developing.  Going into the 2010 drafter there were very high marks given to him as a prospect as well, and I think it makes no sense investing in another franchise QB with the No. 1 pick just two years after doing so with Bradford.  I do not think it would help either QB to have to look over their shoulder at the other, or conversely have to wait their turn to be a starting QB in this league. 

I do think that the Colts should take a chance on drafting Luck if they get the opportunity, even if Peyton Manning is able to come back fully this year or next.  The opportunity to create a Favre/Rodgers situation that proved flawless in Green Bay, and an opportunity for your budding franchise QB to learn from one of the best that has ever played this game in a “slow cooking” situation would be ideal if you ask me.

While the Colts situation has been debated hard, I have not heard much debate on whether the Panthers should follow suit.  This brings us back to the question at hand.  Should the Panthers draft Andrew Luck,?  Should they end up with the league’s worst record even though they seem to have found gold in Cam Newton? 

Cam has been a shot of energy for the Panthers, shown tremendous growth and put out awfully impressive numbers that have made it clear he is able to play at a high level in this league.  I think, especially after drafting two quarterbacks in two years already, it would make no sense to draft a THIRD in consecutive years and bring on a guy that PROJECTS to be very good in this league vs. someone that IS ALREADY good. 

The knock on Cam was that, he didn’t have the mental makeup and maturity to be successful at this level coming in.  People doubted his accuracy and felt that he ran a gimmick offense at Auburn.  There was no way that you could possibly grade him out as a prospect like you can Andrew Luck due to the fact that Luck does everything well, and fits the mold of a prototype successful pro-quarterback. 

What people did not take into account was the undeniable fact that is things DID click for Cam Newton, based on the fact that he was such a big playmaker and difference maker at Auburn in their undefeated national championship season, he could become one of he most special players to ever play the game.  The big question was IF.

With that said, I think that if you are the Panthers, there is no way you can take Andrew Luck when you have already found your franchise quarterback. 

Newton has already asserted himself as a dangerous and successful quarterback in the league against a variety of defenses and attacks, and there is still a long way to go for him.  It’s scary how good he COULD be if he continues to progress and reaches his max.  I think that his upside is higher than Andrew Luck’s and despite the fact that if you were to compare them prior to this season, Luck would be the surer bet.

I think if you are looking to hit it big, you go with Cam Newton then, and you DEFINITELY go with him now given the fact that he is proven while Luck is still a projection.

I can pretty much guarantee you that Luck will be at least a solid/good quarterback in this league.  But can I guarantee you that he will be great, or that he will even have the success Newton has had so far? 

No I can’t. 

Luck is still a dream, while Newton is a reality.  You have to go with what Newton has given you on the field so far, which has been special, over the mythology of Andrew Luck’s off-the-charts projections. 

No disrespect to Andrew Luck, but Carolina if you get a chance at the No. 1 pick, don’t do it!  You have other needs, address them first!