UFC 1 on FOX: Final Betting Odds and Predictions

Welp, it's finally almost here. UFC on Fox: Velasquez vs. dos Santos, or UFC's very first card on a major broadcast network. I'm like a proud daddy. Or at least I'm like the guy who stands around in the waiting room for a minute and congratulates the grandparents while they're waiting for the baby to be wheeled out. Since, you know, I really don't actually have anything to do with this.

But that's not important. What is important is that this is a stacked, 10-fight card headlined by what should be, and in my opinion will be, the greatest heavyweight title fight in the history of the UFC and maybe all of MMA (though there are a lot of big names to dethrone in that arena).

For your reading and wagering pleasure, presented here are betting odds and predictions for the entire card. Please enjoy.

10. Aaron Rosa vs. Matt Lucas

Light heavyweight bout

Odds: Rosa -135

In his last fight, Rosa showed substantial heart but fell short in a slugfest with Joey Beltran.

In this fight, he'll be slimmer and trimmer at light heavyweight, and he'll be facing Matt "Luke Duke" Lucas, who is 14-2 but largely untested heading into this, his Octagon debut.

Plus, his nickname is "Luke Duke." I, uh, I can't get behind that.

Prediction: Rosa by TKO, Rd. 1

9. Mike Pierce vs. Paul Bradley

Welterweight bout

Odds: Pierce -350

This is a rematch of a fight Pierce won by unanimous decision back in 2009.

Right after that fight, Pierce moved up to the UFC, where he is a solid 4-2. His only Octagon losses came to Jon Fitch and Johny Hendricks, the latter suffered in his most recent appearance.

Meanwhile, "The Gentleman" has toiled in the MMA hinterlands, compiling an impressive track record in the minor leagues but promptly dropping his first UFC bout to Rafael "Don't Call Me Rafa" Natal at UFC 133.

There's nothing on paper to suggest Bradley can reverse the outcome of their original matchup.

Prediction: Pierce by unanimous decision

8. Alex Caceres vs. Cole Escovedo

Bantamweight bout

Betting odds: Escovedo -300

Yep, that line looks about right for this fight, touted as a loser-leaves-town affair.

All four of Caceres' losses have come by submission. Escovedo has 10 wins by submission. You finish the equation.

Prediction: Escovedo by submission, Rd. 2. Submission of the Night right here.

7. Mackens Semerzier vs. Robert Peralta

Featherweight bout

Betting odds: Semerzier -135

A loser in three of his last four, Semerzier is backing into the Octagon in his UFC debut. Peralta took his first UFC scalp in September.

Both men are well rounded, but Peralta seems to have the momentum here. So wait...what's that? Do you hear something? Are those...could they be...the UPSET ALARMS? That's right. This is your first Cinderella of the evening.

Prediction: Peralta, TKO, Rd. 1

6. Norifumi Yamamoto vs. Darren Uyenoyama

Bantamweight bout

Betting odds: Yamamoto -370

I like Darren Uyenoyama's style. Personality-wise, he's got this laid-back, self-deprecating, Kazushi Sakuraba thing going on. On top of that, he has a nasty submission grappling game that also evokes (a little bit) the Japanese legend.

Yamamoto, though, is a caged animal. The 34-year-old has dropped three of four, including a decision loss to Demetrious Johnson in his first UFC fight.

If "Kid" still has it anywhere in him to wall off a good grappler's takedowns and secure a W with his furious standup, this would be the time. It's a now or never moment, in my opinion, for this superstar of Japanese MMA.

Winner: Yamamoto by unanimous decision. Also, this one wins the prestigious Most Combined Name Syllables of the Night award. (It's 15, in case you were wondering. See, this is why they give me the big checks.)

5. DaMarques Johnson vs. Clay Harvison

Welterweight bout

Betting odds: Johnson -280

Clay Harvison has a sharp striking game. His grappling game is a different ball of wax. Everyone knows that, including Clay Harvison.

With each man having lost his last fight (and three of their last four combined), this one may be another loser-goes-home proposition. I think Harvison comes out fast and loose and stays clear of Johnson's good, but not overwhelming, ground attack. As they say, sometimes the best defense is a good offense. Sound the alarms.

Prediction: Harvison by TKO, Rd. 1

4. Cub Swanson vs. Ricardo Lamas

Featherweight bout

Betting odds: Lamas -130

Swanson may be one of those guys who, despite a good career, is generally better known for his losses than his wins. An eight-second knockout loss to Jose Aldo and a 35-second submission loss to Jens Pulver will do that. Call him the Kevin Randleman of the 145-pound set.

Lamas is a tough customer. He is 10-2 and won his UFC debut in June by first-round TKO. But Swanson—with three Fight of the Night bonuses from his WEC days—bears no ill will toward the brawl. He'll take care of business in his first Octagon challenge and find himself on the right side of the highlight reel.

Prediction: Swanson by TKO, Rd. 1. Knockout of the Night right here.

3. Dustin Poirier vs. Pablo Garza

Featherweight bout

Betting odds: Poirier -280

Two very promising prospects (combined record: 21-2; average age: 24.5) will battle to see who's ready to take the next leap up the featherweight rankings.

At 22, young Dustin "The Diamond" Poirier is already 10-1 and a perfect 2-0 since dropping to 145. The Louisiana native is well rounded, tough as nails and big for a featherweight (he wasn't a small lightweight either).

Garza is capable of almost anything in the cage, as evidenced by his flying triangle on Yves Jabouin at UFC 129 or his flying-knee KO at the TUF 12 Finale last December. If Poirier is a Sherman tank of a featherweight, Garza is an F-16.

I think that line is a little too heavy for Poirier, but I still think he'll win this battle.

Prediction: Poirier by unanimous decision, Fight of the Night second runner-up

2. Clay Guida vs. Ben Henderson

Lightweight bout

Betting odds: Henderson -280

Who wouldn't love to see The Carpenter win his fifth straight and, in so doing, earn that battle for championship gold that he has pursued so seemingly quixotically for all these years as Ahab after the white whale?

That was fun. BS aside, though, Guida showed against Anthony Pettis that he has what it takes to smother these WEC firecrackers.

Nevertheless, after what Bendo did to Jim Miller back in August, I can't name another fighter outside of Frankie Edgar who has looked better at 155 this year.

Heart says Guida. Head says Henderson.

Prediction: Henderson by unanimous decision and Fight of the Night runner-up

(Photo credit: ESPN)

1. Cain Velasquez vs. Junior dos Santos

Heavyweight bout

Betting odds: Velasquez -200

I must have written this slide five different ways in my head before actually typing anything. I'm convinced this will be the best heavyweight title fight ever, and as such, it's a hard one to pick.

Here's the logjam, at least for me: I think Cain Velasquez is the best heavyweight on the planet—yet I'm picking Junior dos Santos to win this fight and take the heavyweight belt.

Velasquez has better all-around credentials, most notably on the wrestling front. If dos Santos is the best boxer in the division, Velasquez, for my money, is its hardest hitter as well as best wrestler.

But Shane Carwin was a college wrestler too and could mount nothing in the face of dos Santos' razor-sharp, omni-directional boxing. At the end, it was dos Santos scoring takedowns, seemingly for fun, or because he was worried about permanently damaging Carwin's face.

That all brings us to the "X-factor."  Dos Santos isn't a wrestler, but he does train with the Nogueira brothers and Demian Maia. Would you be shocked if Velasquez scored a takedown and controlled for a while but suddenly found himself in a triangle? I don't think I would be.

So that's what it comes down to: How good, really, is dos Santos' ground game? Velasquez, great striker though he is, will probably have to roll the dice at some point, seeing as how no heavyweight can match dos Santos on the feet. Unlike Carwin or others, Cain has the tools to execute on that front.

Which is why it all comes back to JDS' grappling skills. That's the big unknown. But my gut says Junior unveils his jiu-jitsu game tonight and, in the process, unveils himself as the new heavyweight champion.

At least, that is, until the rematch. Can you say trilogy?

Prediction: Junior dos Santos by submission, Rd. 4. Fight of the Night right here.