F1 2012: Assessing the Challengers to the Top 3

The line between success and failure in Formula One is a fine line indeed, and even the wealthiest teams with the most talented drivers struggle to stay on the right side for more than a few seasons at a time.

Retaining your place as a top team is tough, but coming from mid-grid to join the battle for titles and wins is harder still. 

On the surface, the Mercedes team appears to be the next in line for a rise to glory, but a dig into recent history suggests the biggest leaps can also come from more unlikely sources.

Brawn GP—former Honda, now Mercedes—rose from near-closure to produce a dominant car and a world championship with Jenson Button in 2009.  Red Bull's climb from the upper-midfield to brilliance took little longer than the blink of an eye. 

While Renault's climb was steady, regular trips to the podium over two seasons preceded the glory years of 2005 and 2006.

Success can come from a single piece of sudden design brilliance or several years of hard work finally paying off. 

With most teams already starting development on their 2012 cars, who's got the potential to gatecrash the top three next season?

Mercedes

The obvious candidates.  Currently the "best of the rest," Mercedes are well positioned to make the next step.

They have all the ingredients for success—on paper, at least.  They are owned by a committed major manufacturer, with Petronas dumping in a healthy amount of sponsorship, and they have two good (if not currently accepted as exceptional) drivers and a solid design team. 

The personnel list is particularly impressive for a midfield runner.

Nico Rosberg—if he stays, which he probably will—is still searching for his maiden victory, but he's never had the car to make that happen and remains highly regarded in the pit lane.  Michael Schumacher, though not what he once was, can still produce moments of brilliance.

Ross Brawn needs no introduction, while technical director Bob Bell was the mastermind behind the title-winning Renault cars of 2005 and 2006.  CEO Nick Fry has a wealth of experience in the sport, and new arrivals working on the 2012 car will include ex-Ferrari designer Aldo Costa and former Williams man Geoff Willis.

While it's very unlikely that a team with such resources and personnel will go backwards, stagnation is a very real possibility.  The back-room teams of McLaren, Ferrari and Red Bull are just as impressive, and Mercedes already have to run just to stay still.

But if any team looks likely to manage a push into the top three, they do.

Force India

In my book, the next most likely to make the jump—which maybe says much for the direction of the rest of the grid.

Force India began life in 2008 when a consortium led by Indian billionaire Vijay Mallya purchased Spyker F1, the remnants of what was once the Jordan team. 

The 2008 car—the VM01—was based on the poor 2007 Spyker, and most of the team's work at this early stage went into focusing on their car for the following season.

Since then, the team has made slow but steady progress, moving from competing to avoid going out in Q1 in 2009 to challenging regularly for top 10 starting and finishing positions in 2011. 

Force India has a technological relationship with McLaren that can only be beneficial to their car's development, and a long-term engine deal with Mercedes will see them using a strong power plant for some time yet.

The arrival of new co-owner Sahara—a multinational conglomerate with a finger in every pie—will provide greater financial freedom.  National pride, as India tries to forge a new position in international motorsport, could drive them forward further.

And in Paul di Resta and Adrian Sutil (assuming he stays), Force India have two good, if still a little unproven, drivers who will be able to get more from the machinery than the average racer would.

The chance is there to be taken, but more realistically, a step to challenge in earnest for the "best of the rest" title will be their goal.  It'll take a piece of design genius to elevate them higher than that, and such an innovation is only a slim possibility with few changes in the technical regulations.

Lotus/Renault

If Red Bull ever need some tips on falling from grace, they could do worse than asking their engine supplier for advice.

Red Bull stood as world champions in 2005 and 2006, but Fernando Alonso's departure coincided with a dismal downturn in fortune.  The Spaniard returned in 2008 and won two races, but the success was just a blip in their descent to mediocrity.

The team has dropped firmly into the midfield as a result of "Crashgate," the loss of Flavio Briatore, Pat Symonds and Alonso (again), the injury to star driver Robert Kubica, Renault selling their stake and a string of less-than-brilliant drivers.

On the bright side, at least they finally have the name sorted.

The team is now owned by investment group Genii Capital and carmaker Proton.  Proton owns Lotus Cars, which make the Elise and Exige and for all intents and purposes constitute the real-world Lotus of today. 

The Tony Fernandes-owned, back-of-the-grid "Lotus" were using a license from Proton.  Proton decided against it, so Fernandes bought a different version of the Lotus name from someone else.  

They can no longer do that (for whatever reason, I gave up trying to follow the court cases), so they have bought Caterham (another British sports car manufacturer, this one a smaller one than Lotus) and will use their name instead.

Anyway, back to Genii Capital Proton Lotus formerly-Renault F1.

Kubica looks unlikely to return full-time next season, so the driver lineup for 2012 will be the unspectacular Vitaly Petrov plus one other.  Bruno Senna and Romain Grosjean have been mentioned, but neither name will strike fear into hearts of the top three.

Renault will continue to supply engines and some technical input, which could be taken as a small glimmer of hope.  But the team looks rudderless and aimless right now, without solid drivers, and their best hope for 2012 will be retaining fifth place in the Championship.

Williams

Formed in 1977—a different entity to Frank Williams' older team—the Williams team have seen several periods of dominance throughout their long history.

But the last of these ended in 1997, and although they saw a brief revival during their partnership with BMW, Williams haven't won a race for almost seven years, a string of poor cars and lack of funding consigning them to the midfield. 

The 2011 season has arguably provided the lowest ebb in the team's long and proud history—just 4 points and ninth place in the Constructors' Championship, ahead of only the three newer teams.  Can anything better be expected in 2012?

Frank Williams certainly thinks so, and I'm inclined to share his optimism.  The team will switch engine suppliers to Renault, and while no one would expect the combination to once more dominate the field as it did in the 1990s, it's a step up from the current Cosworth.

New personnel are being brought into the backroom, most notably former McLaren employee Mike Coughlan.  Despite his involvement in the so-called Spygate scandal of 2007 and subsequent damage to his reputation, he remains one of the top engineers in the sport. 

Driver-wise, the existing line-up of Rubens Barrichello and Pastor Maldonado is one of the weakest on the grid.  Maldonado's seat is safe, but Rubens will almost certainly move on to pastures new.  His replacement, barring a major upset, will be former World Champion Kimi Raikkonen.

Raikkonen's natural ability has always been phenomenal, and he had the potential to win far more than his solitary world title.  Despite two years away from Formula One, his presence alone will be a major boost, and his performances will be key to any success Williams have in 2012.

Top three?  No chance—they're coming from too far back and don't have the resources of their rivals.  The best they can realistically hope for is fifth place—an achievable goal for a team with such passion and history.

If Raikkonen bothers to show up, that is.

Sauber

Few things in Formula One say "mediocre" quite like Sauber does.

Which is unfortunate, as any independent team still on the grid after 18 seasons deserves to be spoken of highly—and Sauber does have an admirable sports car record.  But their F1 story is one of a perennial also-ran, and that's not going to change.

As BMW Sauber, the team made progress, the German car-maker's budget and technical input providing a huge boost.  Robert Kubica led home a one-two finish for the team's first and only Grand Prix victory to date at the 2008 Canadian Grand Prix.

With Nick Heidfeld and Kubica scoring a further ten podiums between them, BMW Sauber were third overall and things were looking up.

But the global financial crisis prompted BMW to pull the plug, and the team returned to the ownership of Peter Sauber.

And to struggling to maintain their mid-grid status.

The partnership of Kamui Kobayashi and Sergio Perez will be retained, giving continuity if nothing else.  Neither driver has fully proven himself at this level, and 2012 may well be the make or break year for both men.

As Sauber alone, the team's Championship positions have been, from 1993 onwards: 7, 8, 7, 7, 7, 6, 8, 8, 4, 5, 6, 6, 8—BMW ownership for four years—and 8.  This year, they're seventh again.

We can't expect better in 2012.

Toro Rosso

Originally a little brother to Red Bull, Toro Rosso is now run as a separate entity—the 2010 and 2011 cars were, as a result of regulation changes, constructed in-house with no assistance from the main team.

But they remain owned by Dietrich Mateschitz, occupying a position firmly in the shadows of their more illustrious cousin.  And without further assistance from that cousin, they're unlikely to make any steps forward.

Toro Rosso draw their drivers from the Red Bull Young Driver Development Programme/Red Bull Junior Team (RBJT).  As such, they have the chance to find the next big thing, if only for a single season—Sebastian Vettel springs to mind as a successful product of a season with Toro Rosso.

However, most drivers are not Sebastian Vettel.  Other luminaries to have come out of the RBJT include Christian Klien, Karun Chandhok, Scott Speed and Vitantonio Liuzzi. 

So the odds of getting their hands on a superstar of the future aren't stacked in Toro Rosso's favour.

Strides have been made over the course of the current season, but they were coming from a long way back.  The only way they'll get close to the top three in 2012 is when they're being lapped.

Caterham, Marussia, HRT

Quite how long the three "new teams" can get away with being "new teams" is a matter of much debate.  How long they can use their youth as an excuse for terrible results is another.

2012 will be the third season for them, and sadly only one looks even remotely close to joining up with the main race.  Perhaps it's harsh, but that just isn't good enough for F1.

Caterham is the new name of the current backmarking Lotus team, because Tony Fernandes seemingly has some deep affinity with British sports car manufacturers. 

Caterham produce the Seven, a design they bought from Lotus (oh please, not again) back in 1972.  If we're looking for a fun fact, no mass-produced road car has a closer drag coefficient to a Formula One car than the Caterham Seven.

It's 0.7 against 0.7-1.1 for an F1 car, if anyone cares.

Lotus currently occupy the position of third from last and have the most impressive driver lineup of the three new teams.  Progress has been made, albeit very slowly, and next year could see Caterham latch onto the rear of the main pack.

Optimistically, Caterham could challenge for eighth in the Constructors' Championship.  Or higher, if someone else badly drops the ball.

Marussia is the new name of the current Virgin Racing team.  Marussia is a Russian car manufacturer that actually makes stunning cars—expect them to appear on a lot of wish lists over the coming years.

They bought a controlling stake in the team late in 2010, but have only now been granted permission to effect a proper name change. 

Timo Glock will stay for 2012, but his teammate has yet to be decided.  Perhaps Marussia will look to secure the services and sponsorship of a young Russian driver—but a slightly more experienced journeyman may be a better choice.

As Virgin, the team was going nowhere, and early hopes of challenging Lotus/Caterham faded.  Whether a change of name can provide the boost they need remains to be seen, but sadly I don't see it happening.

HRT is of course HRT, they of the unfortunate orphaned initialism.  In July 2011, a controlling stake in the team was purchased by Madrid-based investment company Thesan Capital.

The group announced plans to deepen the team's ties to the Hispania (Iberian peninsula) region, basing the team in Spain and taking steps to make it "progessively more Spanish."

Though not elaborated upon, that likely means looking into the possibility of Spanish, Portuguese or Central/South American drivers, and seeking sponsorship ties with companies from the same regions.

Though obviously their perceived adherence to the culture of a region is a pressing matter of extreme importance, perhaps they should focus on making their car go round a race track first.

The numbers 23 and 24 will be uncomfortably familiar in 2012.

And So...

This is a worthwhile topic to revisit in the weeks before the first race of the season, to see if anything has changed in my mind by the time the new cars have seen the light of day.

Until then, may we all live in hope of seeing Timo Glock and Kamui Kobayashi battling wheel-to-wheel for race wins in 2012.

After all, who doesn't love a good surprise in F1?