MLB Trade Scenario: Why Trading Matt Kemp to Red Sox Makes Sense for Dodgers

The Dodgers have needs at 2B and 3B and want to add pitching depth, both starting and in the bullpen. Perhaps most importantly, they need cash and/or relief from certain contracts as they enter this period of ownership uncertainty.

The Red Sox need a right-handed outfielder, so why not go after the best? Matt Kemp sported a .963 OPS this season to go along with 39 HR, 126 RBI, 40 stolen bases and a .324 batting average.

Yes, I know, it's unheard of to trade a player likely to be named this year's NL MVP. However, the Dodgers face serious financial difficulties due to the contentious divorce of owner Frank and Jamie McCourt.

Two weeks ago, Dodgers GM Ned Colletti expressed concern about the team’s payroll after Frank McCourt agreed to pay Jamie McCourt $130 million in exchange for her dropping any ownership claim to the team. McCourt has since committed to sell the team, and now all bets are off.

Further stressing their future finances, the Dodgers announced earlier this week that they would be lowering nearly all season ticket prices for 2012.

1. Moving Kemp Makes Big Sense Financially for the Dodgers

While the Dodgers consider Kemp and pitcher Clayton Kershaw the cornerstones of their franchise, they may not be able to re-sign both.

The payroll situation is further complicated by the bloated contracts of Juan Uribe ($15 million for the next two years), Ted Lilly ($25.5 million over the next two years) and Chad Billingsley ($35 million over the next three years). The pending free agency of Andre Ethier adds to the financial pressure.

As Tim Dierkes aptly pointed out on MLBTradeRumors.com, “It'll be costly just for Colletti to resolve the Dodgers' internal business. Out of 209 arbitration eligible players, Kemp's settlement projects as the second-highest salary, Ethier's the fifth-highest, and Kershaw's the ninth-highest.” 

Even if the Dodgers can swallow the arbitration bump, it may be impossible for them to sign Kemp to a new contract next year, so they should at least listen to offers. 

Making it more difficult for the Dodgers is the fact that Kemp has been adamant that he will not negotiate an extension after the season starts. Any ownership change will take months to process, making it unlikely that the boxcar load of cash will roll into the station in time to keep Kemp from testing the free-agent market after 2012. 

Dylan Hernandez, writing in the LA Times, reports that while Kemp loves being in LA, a hometown discount is also not in the cards. Kemp wants to win, and he also wants to be viewed by his peers as being one of the best. The way that happens is to be paid like the best.

If the Dodgers don’t consider trading Kemp now, they run the risk of not being able to sign him to an extension by March and then losing him for a couple of draft picks at the end of 2012.

As unpopular as the move might be, it makes business sense for the Dodgers to consider this deal. 

2. Sox Trade 3B/1B Kevin Youkilis, SS/3B Jed Lowrie and SS Xander Bogaerts

Casey Blake is now a free agent, and the Dodgers have no organizational depth at third. Underperforming (and injured) Juan Uribe is penciled in at that position, and the Dodgers would love to dump his contract.

No one plays the game harder than Kevin Youkilis, and the Red Sox would hate to have to play against him.

Youk will be 33 in March, and for a player of his caliber, he is relatively affordable at $12 million for 2012. This the fourth and final year of a contract he signed in 2009, although there is a $13 million team option for 2013 with a $1 million buyout. He also has serious credibility; at the start of last season he was 35th on the Sporting News list of the 50 greatest current baseball players.

Youkilis is certainly no slouch as a first baseman either; for a while he held the major-league record for most consecutive errorless games (238) at first base.

Jed Lowrie would help fill another infield hole today.

The former Red Sox Minor League Offensive Player of the Year (2007) lost most of the 2010 season to mononucleosis and then limped through portions of 2011 with a nagging shoulder injury.

When healthy, Lowrie can really put up the offensive numbers, especially against left-handers (he hit over .330 in that situation the last two years).

In fewer than 200 plate appearances in 2010, Jed had an OPS of .907—exceeded only by Troy Tulowitzki among shortstops.

While the Red Sox limped to a 2-10 start to open the 2011 season, Lowrie was one of the few bright spots. He hit .516 through his first 31 at-bats and .368 with a OPS of .962 in the first 21 games.

Hot shortstop prospect Xander Bogaerts, SoxProspects.com's Breakout Player of the Year, could be a star for years to come.

3. LH Starter/Reliever Felix Doubront Rounds out the Red Sox Side of the Trade

Signed as an international free agent from Venezuela in 2004, 25-year-old Felix Doubront has been in Boston’s system since 2005. The Red Sox signed him as a starter; in fact, his first three major-league appearances in 2010 were starts.

Doubront has shown an ability (in an admittedly small sample size of 25 innings) to strike out major-league hitters and could be used out of the Dodger bullpen as well.

4. Dodgers Include IF Juan Uribe, Relieving Themselves of a Burdensome Contract

In 2010 Uribe hit 24 homers and drove in 85 runs for the Giants. He played a crucial role in San Francisco's World Series run, hitting two home runs and driving in nine runs in 14 postseason games.

However, he followed that up with the worst season of his career in 2011, batting only .204 with a measly four home runs in 77 games. He was shut down on July 23 with an abdominal injury, which was finally diagnosed as a sports hernia, leading to season-ending surgery in early September. 

Feeling buyer's remorse, the Dodgers would love to rid themselves of his contract, which will cost the Dodgers $16 million over the next two years.

5. Adding LHP Ted Lilly Also Sheds Salary, Increases Flexibility

Former Yankee Ted Lilly is a 35-year-old lefty who also had a relatively bad year. He is also the highest-paid pitcher on an underperforming staff but showed signs of life during September.

The Dodgers signed him to a three-year, $33 million contract after the 2010 season, and the results have been unspectacular for that investment.

Through the end of July, Lilly bordered on terrible. He had surrendered 23 home runs in 22 starts and was 7-10 with a 5.02 ERA. Opponents had stolen 23 bases off him.

Although Lilly has a full no-trade clause in his contract, the Dodgers did place him on waivers at the 2011 trading deadline, and word on the street was that the Dodgers were hoping someone would put in a claim and try to work out a trade. If that's the case, they must have had some inkling that Lilly might agree to a trade.

He did turn it around at the end of the season, however, posting a 2.09 ERA in his last 11 starts. In five September outings he gave up no long balls, winning five of his last six decisions.

Lilly finished the season 12-14 with a 3.97 ERA.

He is due $22.5 million for the next two years.

NOTE: If Lilly's no-trade clause proves to be a problem, the Dodgers could replace him in the deal with Chad Billingsley, another underperforming starter with a big contract. According to Ben Nicholson-Smith of mlbtraderumors.com, the right-hander will be owed $9 million in 2012, $11 million in 2013, $12 million in 2014 and either $14 million or a $3 million buyout in 2015. Billingsley also has a partial no-trade clause that applies to 10 teams.

Billingsley's 2011, while equally ordinary, was the opposite of Lilly's in that he had a strong start and a disappointing finish, walking 33 in his last 11 starts with an ERA of 4.85.

6. Why This Deal Makes Sense for the Dodgers

Recapping the trade: Dodgers give up Matt Kemp, Ted Lilly and Juan Uribe for Kevin Youkilis, Jed Lowrie, Felix Doubront, Xander Bogaerts and cash.

The cash from the Red Sox, combined with the relief from the Lilly and Uribe contracts, could enable the Dodgers to sign a meaningful extension for star pitcher Clayton Kershaw. They would also be able to re-sign two of their key free agents: pitcher Hiroki Kuroda and outfielder Andre Ethier. They would have enough cash left over to enter the free-agent market for another bat.

Youkilis would be important to the deal as a hard-hitting infielder since Casey Blake is now a free agent and the Dodgers have little organizational depth at third. Underperforming (and injured) Juan Uribe is penciled in at that position, and the Dodgers would love to dump his contract.

Jed Lowrie would help fill another infield hole today, and hot shortstop prospect Xander Bogaerts could be a star for years to come.

Felix Doubront, the 25-year-old Venezuelan, has potential as either a starter or a reliever.

7. Why This Deal Makes Sense for the Red Sox

Obviously, the key to the deal is getting Kemp, one of the best right-handed hitters in the game today. Kemp would also solve Boston's third outfielder problem, although some switching around may have to be done. That is a problem the Red Sox would love to have.

Virtually everything else in this deal is structured as a preemptive strike to get the Dodgers to trade Kemp now rather than risk losing him to free agency.

In 2010 Uribe hit 24 homers and drove in 85 runs for the Giants. Yes, he followed that up with the worst season of his career in 2011, but he is a right-handed batter with some pop who could be a real asset in Fenway if he could get back to the 14 homer, 65 RBI range. With Youkilis and Lowrie gone, he could provide some infield flexibility.

He spent five years with the White Sox (2004-2008), so he's familiar with the American League. In 15 career games at Fenway he has hit five HR and batted .255.

As mentioned, former Yankee Ted Lilly also had an off year. He will be 36 in 2012, and many question how much he has left in the tank. On the other hand, Lilly is not a hard thrower, so the wear and tear on his arm has been less than if he were a fireballer. 

The Red Sox reportedly inquired about him at the 2011 trading deadline, so they should know what they might be in for. They at least know he can pitch in the AL East. He also finished the year strong, which is a good sign.

If he can continue that into 2012, he could be an adequate fourth or fifth starter in Boston. Yes, he and Uribe will both be overpaid, but consider that part of the entry fee for Kemp.

Doubront is a good pitching prospect, but he would have to start the season in the Red Sox bullpen because he is out of minor league options. It is better that he be traded as part of this deal, opening the bullpen slot for a more proven reliever.

Finally, the cash to cinch the deal and then re-sign Kemp would be about the same as it would take to get a top free-agent bat in today’s market. The difference is that Kemp fills a major Red Sox need, while the others do not.