Is Josh Selby a Dark Horse Candidate for NBA Rookie of the Year?

Josh Selby dropped very low in the 2011 NBA draft, before the Memphis Grizzlies picked him 49th overall. Despite being a potential first-round draft pick, Selby fell to the late second round. Since being selected, Selby has been a firecracker, lighting up in exhibitions. However, this doesn't spell him as an NBA Rookie of the Year candidate.

Selby received a bit of support before the draft as a possible first-round pick. In his second mock draft, Sports Illustrated writer Sam Amick projected Selby to be selected No. 26. Being projected in one mock draft is nice, but one might wonder why Selby fell off the radar in the four weeks between that mock draft and the draft.

The Grizzlies raved about Selby after drafting him. Since the Grizzlies had Selby ranked in the 30s on their draft board, general manager Chris Wallace deemed Selby to be a steal. Zach Randolph also called Selby a steal, saying, "The young fella is going to help us."

Selby might be on his way to living up to the praise from Wallace and Randolph, but he has work yet to do.

The Grizzlies Hope Selby's as Good as He Was in High School

Two diverging narratives emerge regarding Selby's career. One is that Selby was a great high school player, stumbled in his year at Kansas and can easily regain form with the Grizzlies. The other states that while Selby was remarkable in high school, he struggled to adapt to the college game, and then, resenting his struggle, bolted for the draft.

Wallace believes in the first narrative. After the draft, Wallace said, "We're drafting him off his high school pedigree. I'm a believer that when you get later on in the draft and there's a big-time high school player around, you take him."

That seems like Wallace talking in the voice of his younger self as the editor and publisher of the Blue Ribbon College Basketball Yearbook. Looking at the big picture, Wallace sees Selby for his raw ability. Thus, Wallace believes highly in Selby.

Indeed, viewing Selby for his high school career gives a person a great deal of hope. In his senior season at Lake Clifton High School, Selby averaged 28 points, seven rebounds and seven assists. Those numbers jump off the page.

However, Selby's raw ability belies his rough year at Kansas. Last season, Selby averaged 7.9 points and 2.2 assists per game while shooting only 37.3 percent from the field. Coming off the bench, Selby averaged only 20.1 minutes per game. Also, Selby missed several games due to a stress reaction in his foot.

Overlooking Selby's year at Kansas is difficult. His year at Kansas suggests that Selby may struggle to adjust to the NBA game. Thus, he might not be much more that a bench rider.

Selby's Exhibition Performances Give Little Idea of His NBA Ability

Selby has played tremendously in exhibitions during the lockout. On July 18, Selby scored 48 points in an exhibition at the Melo Center. In September, Selby scored 41 points in an Impact Basketball League game.

That's nice for filling the lockout doldrums. However, these don't reflect NBA games. Anyone can put up big numbers in these exhibitions. In that Impact Basketball game, J.J. Hickson scored 27 points. Hickson has only scored that high in the NBA three times.

Defense isn't a factor in these exhibitions. Highlight-reel dunks are the mode. One can see how athletic Selby is, but not much else can be gathered until he joins the Grizzlies.

Selby Might Be Low on the Grizzlies Bench

Selby will have to prove his worth when he enters Grizzlies camp at the end of the lockout. In practice, coach Lionel Hollins will have to see where Selby fits on the Grizzlies' roster. Hollins will have to evaluate Selby against other guards.

Projecting Selby into the regular guard rotation is tough. Mike Conley and O.J. Mayo will probably start in the guard spots. Tony Allen is likely the first guard off the bench for the Grizzlies. Hollins would want to play Allen first for his defensive ability. Second should be Sam Young, since he started 46 of his 78 games last season.

Figuring in Darrell Arthur as the first front court player off the bench, Selby looks to be the fourth player in the rotation at best. Seeing Selby rise quickly in the depth chart is difficult. Since he played 20.1 minutes per game at Kansas, he probably won't play any more than that in his rookie season.

Conclusion: Selby Has a Long Way to Go as a Player

Selby might become a good NBA player. His raw talent may some day turn into real NBA prowess. Perhaps, the star player Selby was in high school will emerge. However, development could take a few years.

To say that Selby is a dark horse NBA Rookie of the Year candidate would be to take the concept of dark horse by its definition. Since Selby was drafted late in the second round, he's the epitome of the dark horse. Still, he's nothing close to a Rookie of the Year candidate.

For now, Selby can enjoy his highlight-reel dunks and big exhibition game numbers. Once the NBA season begins, he'll take his hard knocks as a bench player.