NFL Week 9 Picks Against the Spread for Every Game

Last week was another losing week for the Bet Against Josh system; I went 2-3 in the big spread games, plus the Saints and Patriots let me down. Overall, I was 5-8 for Week 9, leaving me at 53-56-7 on the season. That leaves me at seven games below profitability as we enter the last month of bye weeks. Most of you will be disappointed when you find out that, all along, this column was written by a German octopus.

The Panthers, Lions, Jaguars and Vikings will be watching reruns of Saved by the Bell this week. Let’s get to everyone else. Home teams are listed in all caps.

Atlanta -7 over INDIANAPOLIS

The Colts only lost by 17 last week. Good job, guys!

NEW ORLEANS -8 over Tampa Bay

I expect Drew Brees and the Saints to bounce back after a disappointing showing in St. Louis last week. The Saints haven’t lost at home all season, having defeated quality teams like Houston and Chicago along with that Week 7 beatdown of the Colts. The Bucs did hold serve against New Orleans in Week 6, and expect the Saints to follow suit here.

Cleveland +11 over HOUSTON

I hate this line: Houston is on its way to winning the AFC South, as it should be with Peyton Manning on the sideline. Additionally, Cleveland has handed running back duties over to Chris Ogbonnaya, who I wouldn’t recognize if he walked into my apartment while wearing his own jersey.

But let’s face facts: Cleveland hasn’t lost by 11 points in a month, thanks in part to a defense that’s ranked fifth in total yardage allowed and second in passing yardage allowed. Look for another big game from Arian Foster and a close Texans win, but I don’t think Houston can cover here.

BUFFALO -1 over New York Jets

Bills fans deserve the season they’re having right now. Their team is sitting atop the AFC East, alongside New England, with a chance to break away. After this game, they face very winnable road contests in Dallas and Miami before heading over to Jersey to play Rex Ryan again.

It’s bothersome that while we’ve been subjected to awful nationally televised games like Ravens-Jaguars and Chargers-Chiefs, the Bills won’t play on Sunday or Monday night unless the flex scheduling gods smile down upon them. That’s a shame.

Miami +5 over KANSAS CITY

The Dolphins are one of two winless teams left in the league (Indianapolis is the other), and with their lighter strength of schedule, they’re the official front-runners in the “Suck for Luck” sweepstakes.

I’m probably shortchanging Matt Cassel with this pick, especially now since they’ve found a competent replacement for Jamaal Charles in running back Jackie Battle. But even in the midst of their three-game winning streak, the Chiefs are a team without knockout power. But then, at the risk of being redundant, so are the Dolphins.

San Francisco -3.5 over WASHINGTON

The Niners will probably represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, and the Redskins don’t have a quarterback. If I did confidence picks in this column (which I don’t), this would be it (but it isn’t).

Mike Shanahan is the Tony La Russa of football coaches. I’m sure he wishes he had five or six quarterbacks to choose from in a given game. He can’t seem to help himself in switching them around without any reason or warning.

By the way, the Niners are still undefeated...against the spread, at 6-0-1. Lines like this one are the reason why.

Seattle +12 over DALLAS

After an experiment with Charlie Whitehurst that brought the Seahawks a win against the Giants and losses to Cleveland and Cincinnati, head coach Pete Carroll is probably going back to Tarvaris Jackson, who will play despite a pectoral injury.

Seattle can win this game if it can manage pressure on Tony Romo, whose charitable acts under center seem to flow without limits.

OAKLAND -7.5 over Denver

Here’s the thing about the Broncos’ insistence on playing Tim Tebow: You can’t sit him, even now, because the fans will want to see him play.

The upside to that is the Broncos are terrible anyway, and there’s no reason to think a switch at quarterback would make the rest of your team instantly better. Besides, John Fox is a first-year head coach with a team that will ooze patience after the Josh McDaniels debacle.

Play Tebow through the rest of the season, cut him loose in February and carry on for 2012.

Cincinnati +3 over TENNESSEE

The Titans are 3-1 at home, and their running game finally seems to be back in game shape. You can thank Javon Ringer for that, and he will probably split carries with Chris Johnson as he did last week against the Colts.

The Bengals have been solid this season, and rookie quarterback Andy Dalton should have another great road game against a defense that gave up 38 and 41 points to Pittsburgh and Houston, respectively.

St. Louis +4 over ARIZONA

I’m still surprised at how bad the Arizona Cardinals have been this season. Their struggles have overshadowed an impressive campaign from Beanie Wells, who’s primed to have his first 1,000-yard season as a pro.

The Rams will answer with Steven Jackson, who went off against the Saints last week for 159 yards. Jackson has big games in bunches; expect another one here against the Cardinals.

New York Giants +8.5 over NEW ENGLAND

This line surprised me. Was the Steelers-Patriots game blacked out in Vegas? This New England defense still hasn’t shown that it can show up for a big game. The Patriots are dead last in both total defense and pass defense, and they’ll be playing against a quarterback who has thrown for 300 yards in three of his last four games (that fourth game was 292 yards, for the record).

It’s astounding to me how little national press Eli Manning gets. He could drive a busload of nuns into a volcano and it wouldn’t even make SportsCenter.

Green Bay -5 over SAN DIEGO

I don’t expect anything from Aaron Rodgers but to be the greatest quarterback on earth. Say what you want about Ben Roethlisberger’s ability to extend plays or Tom Brady’s awareness or Peyton Manning’s release, but Aaron Rodgers does all of that...and he’s insanely accurate. He’s going to break Drew Brees’ single-season completion percentage record (70.623 percent) from two years ago, if not smash it.

The only weakness on this Packers team is their cheerleading squad. Mix in a salad or two, ladies!

PITTSBURGH -3 over Baltimore

Look, this is a nice matchup on paper, but these teams perennially beat the life out of each other in such an un-entertaining way. Run, run, run, punt. Run, run, run, punt. We get it. You’re playing Smashmouth Football (TM). Hopefully Roethlisberger’s passing success against Arizona and New England will open this game up.

Don’t forget that the Ravens blew these guys out in Week 1, so expect extra angriness in this matchup.

PHILADELPHIA -7 over Chicago

The Eagles were rewarded for their thrashing of Dallas with an extra day off, but considering the way Andy Reid manages his time, the team might have taken two extra days. LeSean McCoy might be the best player the Eagles have right now, and that’s saying something for a guy that shares the field with Michael Vick and DeSean Jackson.

Philly has had its struggles, but it seems to be peaking at the right time of the season, while Chicago can’t seem to catch a break, as it trails the Packers and Lions in the NFC North.