Game-by-Game Predictions for the New Orleans Saints' Second Half of the Season

The eventful, yet very disappointing, record for the New Orleans Saints through the first half of the 2011 NFL season is 5-3.

Every fan of the New Orleans Saints knows basically how the team got here. And there's been plenty written on how good the team and its players have been at times, and how bad they have been at other times. 

But let's begin to look ahead. Let's look at what it's going to take to make the playoffs, win the division and possibly earn the first or second seed in the NFC. Is it possible?

Sunday, November 6 at Noon CT vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Mercedes-Benz Superdome

It is not rare for two teams to play two division games against each other in a matter of four weeks. But the Saints haven't gone through this kind of quick turnaround against a division opponent under Sean Payton (that I can remember at least). 

But that's exactly what is happening this weekend as the Bucs come into New Orleans just three games after defeating the Saints back in Tampa. In that game, Drew Brees had three interceptions and the defense was horrible. That sounds almost like what the team went through against St. Louis last week, doesn't it?

In that game, Josh Freeman played his best football game of 2011. Earnest Graham—now on injured reserve—ran through and around the Saints at will. And the Tampa Bay defense was stout enough to hold on for a 26-20 win. 

Of course that was also the infamous Payton Goes Down game. The Saints have been enigmatic in the short time since that injury took place. 

Look for the Saints to come out ready to play Sunday. They must be after suffering a humiliating loss at St. Louis a week ago. 

Look for Brees and the offense to try to establish a quick tempo, run off tackle with Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles and hit some throws off of play-action.

Defensively, look for the Saints to continue with their aggressive blitzing style, but to add a twist element—the zone blitz. Williams would be wise to add such a scheme, since the man coverages with heavy blitzes didn't work too well against Tampa in Week 6.

Most of all, expect the crowd to deliver as it has in the first three Saints home games.

My prediction:  Saints 30, Tampa Bay 20 

Sunday, November 13 at Noon CT at Atlanta Falcons Georgia Dome

It's nice that the Saints will have finished and completed their road division schedule by Week 10 of the NFL season, but the Week 10 matchup is probably the toughest of all those matchups. 

Matt Ryan, Roddy White, Michael Turner and Tony Gonzalez make up quite the offense. They are the type of offense that can go off at any time. It is a dangerous unit to face, especially on the road. 

The key to stopping the Falcons offense is to find some way to slow Turner down. Using run blitzes, shooting gaps and playing assignment football is ultimately the best way to do that. Once that is done, Ryan and Co. become a one-dimensional offense. 

But a one-dimensional offense, no matter how talented, is always easier to stop. At that point, all attention can be given to rolling coverage towards Roddy White, covering Tony Gonzalez with Malcolm Jenkins and blitzing everybody else. 

When the Saints have the ball, the key is to commit to the running game. The Saints have had great success in the running game over the last few years versus Atlanta, and nothing has changed to where that shouldn't continue. 

Pierre Thomas and Darren Sproles should run wild on this defense. The key is to seal the edge on those toss sweeps with Sproles. Then, when Thomas is getting the ball, he should be attacking the middle of the defense and going straight up on counters and power plays. 

Once the run is established, the Saints' MO should be play-action pass. Obviously I'm exaggerating, but there shouldn't be a pass attempted that doesn't come from play-action. Play-action should be the name of the passing game versus the Falcons, especially on the road. 

That being said, the Saints have been bad on the road thus far this year, and the Falcons are always good at home under Mike Smith. For that reason, the Falcons get the edge.

My prediction: Falcons 30, Saints 24

Monday, November 28 at 7:30 CT Monday Night Football vs. the New York Giants

The last time the Giants came to the Superdome, the Saints blitzed the New York Giants to the tune of turnovers, points and yards that were astronomical, especially in the first half. 

This season, the Saints have been a disappointing team, while the Giants have been surprisingly good. 

Offensively, the Giants are a fairly traditional offense which is run first, pass second. They still run two-back quite often, and like to use a slot receiver in Victor Cruz. Aside from that, they aren't too exotic. Based on this film study, the Saints can stay in their base 4-3 defense most of the time, while on third down they can comfortably move into the nickel package. 

Eli Manning is susceptible to the blitz if it is well disguised, but you must get home, otherwise Eli will find Mario Manningham,Victor Cruz, or his big-play receiver Hakeem Nicks will destroy your secondary. 

I normally like blitzes from the DBs, but against this traditional offense, it is better to play a two-high look and only blitz from the outside with linebackers. 

Offensively, the Saints are looking at pretty much the same matchup that they saw this past week against St.Louis. It is a defense that excels at getting to the QB, but has weak corners. Hopefully, Sean Payton and Co. learn a lot from that Rams game. 

My Prediction: Saints 41, Giants 24

Sunday, December 4 vs. Detroit Lions Noon CT at Mercedes Benz Superdome

December 4 is my birthday. I'm still holding a glimmer of hope that I can be in the dome for this game. 

And every week that goes by makes this look like it could be moved into the Sunday Night Football time slot, or at least flexed to the afternoon game. 

Offensively, the Lions are a deep threat passing team, who are almost impossible to stop when Matthew Stafford decides to chuck it up to Calvin Johnson. But if you sit back and play two-high coverage and force Stafford to check it down, he gets frustrated and struggles. 

Defensively, that is the very strategy the Lions try to employ. With a fierce front-four pass-rush, it is a good strategy. To beat them it takes a patient strategy, with checking down amid great pressure. Then when the ends are getting up, screens and draws become the best strategy possible. 

If this game is any other time slot than the one it is currently in, I think it will be a blowout in the Saints' favor. But if it remains in this time slot, I predict a close game. 

My Prediction: Game is Flexed, thus Saints 37, Lions 21

Sunday, December 11 at Tennessee at Noon CT at LP Field

No one can look into the future and predict whether Chris Johnson will get out of his funk prior to this game or not. But as of now, this matchup is a favorable one for the Saints. 

If Johnson wakes up between now and then, suddenly the matchup isn't quite so ideal for New Orleans. 

Either way, the Titans figure to run, run, run and run some more. Occasionally, Matt Hasselbeck may play fake and go deep and try to hearken Saints fans' memories back to last January in Seattle. Defensively, the Saints must play eight-in-the-box and take the challenge. 

If Hasselbeck beats the Saints, so be it. Mainly, don't get beat by Johnson and that running game. 

On offense, the Saints should be able to throw the ball effectively versus Tennessee, and after some success in that department, then run the ball effectively as well. 

The weather ought to be a bit chilly, but the Saints have played in such conditions enough the last few years that it shouldn't both them too much. Therefore...

My Prediction: Saints 31, Titans 10

Sunday, December 18 at Minnesota at Noon CT at Mall of America Field

Two weeks ago, Leslie Frazier embarked on the journey that is Christian Ponder—the new face of the Vikings franchise.

With Adrian Peterson running wild, the defense improving and a team playing with more energy, the Vikings are suddenly a dangerous football team.  

An interesting stat came from Bill Barnwell of grantland.com Tuesday about Ponder. So far this season, he is a 40 percent passer for 298 yards on first and second down, while he is a 72 percent passer for 256 yards on third and fourth down. 

In other words, the key to stopping the Vikings is third-down defense. Figure out a great plan for third down, and simply make sure you're good enough on those base downs to get to third down. What is that base plan? Hopefully it's pretty obvious, but in case it is not, here it is—stop Adrian Peterson!

Literally do whatever you have to do to stop him. Put eight guys, nine guys even, in the box and stop him. The Saints have done pretty well against the man they call "AD" over the years. With an inconsistent but quickly developing rookie under center, the key even more than it has been in the past is stopping Peterson. 

On offense, the Saints must simply be balanced. Run, pass; pass, run. The order isn't really consequential as much as the result is. If the Saints can maintain offensive balance against the Vikings, they will score early and often. It is an aging and not very talented defensive unit. 

My Prediction: Saints 35, Vikings 17

December 26 Monday Night Football vs. Atlanta 7:30 CT at Mercedes-Benz Superdome

It is difficult to analyze this game from an X's and O's standpoint, without seeing the first matchup play out. Nonetheless, a few things can be deduced from previous Monday Night Football matchups between these two teams. 

Frankly, the Saints have won every one of them under Sean Payton. That's right, Sean Payton and Drew Brees are 4-0 against the Falcons on Monday Night Football. And the Saints are just good in prime time anyway, especially at home. 

Because of that I feel safe predicting another win.

My Prediction: Saints 35, Falcons 23

January 1, 2012 vs. Carolina Noon CT at Mercedes-Benz Superdome

In the first game between these teams this season, the Saints at one point were dominating, then let their foot off the gas. Considering the Saints record in the final game of the season under Sean Payton—look it up, it's not good—it seems the Saints will likely do the same in this game. 

With a projected record of 11-4 going into this game, it is likely the Saints will have already wrapped up the NFC South and a playoff seeding—whatever it may be (here's guessing the 49ers do not remain a one-loss team much longer). 

Cam Newton will likely electrify the New Orleans crowd on a day they likely won't even care. Hint: New Year's Eve was the night before. 

The Sugar Bowl game—to be played two evenings later—promises to be a much more exciting game than this one, even if it is a blowout as it has been many times the last few years. 

My Prediction: Panthers 20, Saints 13