Six Feet Under at Mile High: Why Tim Tebow's Denver Career Will Go Three-and-Out

After listening to John Fox's press conference following Denver's humiliating 45-10 loss to the Lions on Sunday, I couldn't help but come away thinking the Tebow Experiment might be winding down.

Or, more specifically, exploding like a hydrogen bomb and returning to earth as hot, ashy fallout.

It should come as no surprise that Tim Tebow is on thin ice with his head coach. He, like any other player on the field, must be judged on his performance. And, also like any other player on the field, if he doesn't perform well, he won't be long for the job. The only surprise is that for two weeks we forgot that Tim Tebow was just like any other player.

What were we thinking? En masse, we, as fans and writers alike, presumed Tim Tebow would have the final 11 games of the season to audition for the role of 2012 Denver Broncos starting quarterback.

We failed to remember that Tim Tebow isn't Blaine Gabbert, or Cam Newton, or Christian Ponder, and didn't have the expectations coming into the pros that would afford him such a window.

We forgot that he lost out not just to Kyle Orton, but also to Brady Quinn.

That's right. Brady Quinn.

Supporters of Tebow have been consistent in their argument that the former Florida Gators' superstar just needed time to grow, and that we should reserve judgment on him until we have a larger sample size, but they, like the rest of us, forgot that Tim Tebow isn't anyone special.

He's not Sam Bradford or Matt Ryan. He was a third-round quarterback who was jumped to the first round by a doe-eyed Josh McDaniels, and he's given his new coaches no reason to think he's worth the growing pains.

There really was no football-related reason to start him in the first place. Kyle Orton was lousy, but he's a real quarterback. The Broncos couldn't have imagined Tebow would come in and do better. And he hasn't.

So why is Tebow starting? Because the team stinks and the fans wanted it. In a democratic, Go-America sense, it's refreshing to know that fans have so much of a say in the direction of their team, but in a different, much more real and sobering sense, it's terrifying to think that a bunch of yokels can dictate who gets to take game snaps.

I would hate to think that my team was basing decisions on what the fans wanted. Groups of people are stupid, and that goes double for groups of fans, and that's why Johnny Kerr's old adage still holds true: If a coach starts listening to the fans, he winds up sitting next to them.

Tebow's fans will, of course, say that he isn't doing so bad. They'll point to his quarterback rating, and how it has been at least 85 in all but two of his NFL appearances. That one's their favorite. Of course, the quarterback rating is a joke of a statistic, as misleading as it is meaningless.

To this limp argument I offer this: 4 for 10, 79 yards and a touchdown in Week 5 was good for a quarterback rating of 101.7. A 40% completion percentage, less than 80 yards passing, and he pulled triple digits in the must superfluous of statistics this side of Major League Baseball's “Wins.”

Another game in which he pulled in better than a 100 rating came in Week 14 last season. Tebow went 8-16 for 138 yards and a touchdown. Not terrible numbers, but not great numbers. Not winning numbers. And yet that quarterback rating implied he was a top-five performer.

Okay, so I've blown away the quarterback rating argument, but did I really even need to? Isn't it enough to look at Tim Tebow flopping around the field on any given Sunday to know that he's not pro material?

His release is too long and dips too low, exposing the ball to pass rushers; his footwork is atrocious, resulting in most throws made falling back rather than pushing off; his ability to read defenses is remedial at best, and he holds the ball too long. What about this says to you that he has a future in this league?

His supporters (gosh, you guys are persistent!) will say that plenty of quarterbacks have odd releases. They'll show me tape of Philip Rivers pushing the ball like a shot put and say “If he can do it, why can't Tim?”

It's a nice trick, this, but it's a straw man; I said nothing of odd or unique releases. I speak only of poor release, ones that bring the ball down or bring it too far back, ones that wind up like a pitch or take too long. There is a difference; Rivers' mechanics are unique, Tebow's are poor.

The oldest chestnut of them all is that he's a winner, that he always finds a way. To this, I ask simply: When?

No, seriously: When?

He has two victories as a starter, both of which were in comeback fashion. This sounds impressive on the surface, but like most comebacks, they had more to do with the team blowing the lead than the team making the comeback. Tim Tebow's best numbers have come when the opponent takes its foot off the gas, when they believe the matter has been decided.

Not once in his short career has Tebow showed that he can steward a game when the other guys are paying attention. For 55 minutes against the worst team in football, being spied by a 37-year-old washed-up linebacker, Tim Tebow was hamstrung. For 45 minutes against a young team coming off back-to-back losses, Tim Tebow was shut down.

This doesn't mean that Tim Tebow is “clutch,” (yet another unearned intangible that his supporters so love pining on him). It means the opposite. It means he only performs when it doesn't matter, when the game's already over, when there's absolutely nothing to lose. There's a reason he's already tied John Elway for big-time comebacks: John didn't need them.

I'm going to bet that next Sunday's game in Oakland will be Tebow's final start in 2011, and likely his final start as a Denver Bronco, and I say good riddance. I have no doubt that he'll wind up somewhere in 2012, but it certainly won't be on a team coached by John Fox or managed by John Elway.

Whoever takes over for Tebow—I'm guessing Quinn, at least for a week or two before Fox has to go groveling to Orton—is stepping into a bad situation. Nobody denies that Tebow has the cards stacked against him, just as Orton did. There's no quick-fix to Denver's issues, but Tim Tebow is only making matters worse.

His awful play demoralizes teammates and inspires defenses (did you see Lions' linebacker Stephen Tulloch “Tebowing” after sacking the titular quarterback?), so if Broncos want to go into the offseason with any semblance of self-respect, they'll move on from this silly experiment and give the job to a real quarterback.

Some (guess who?) will dismiss this article as “more Tebow hate,” and even go so far as to call it premature. Those people are blind. They're diehard fans who patronize sports sites for reassurance, not objective analysis, and you should take their complaints for what they're worth: nothing.

There is no other position to take on Tim Tebow. There is no “wait and see.” We already know where his ceiling is, and he's on his way down from hitting it last week.

This isn't a highly-touted rookie with a cannon arm and mounds of potential. Get that out of your head right now, because it is not now, nor has it ever been true. He's not that guy.

Tim Tebow is a run-first quarterback with no accuracy and an arm that doesn't scare anyone. He's not a prospect. Move on with your lives.

After all, the Broncos are about to.