Champions' League Draw: Poisoned Gifts

To finish at the top of your group in the UEFA Champion's League group stage would mean, traditionally, more accessible rivals and the benefit of playing the decisive match at your own stadium, crowded with thousands of feverish supporters. Two advantages granted as "prizes" for being the best throughout the six matches of that first stage. 

They are supposed to make life easier to their beneficiaries, while the teams that finished second have to fit up with harder rivals; therefore, with less possibilities of going on.

Now, given the teams that finished first and second in this Champions' league edition, and the higher value of the goals scored at the opponent’s ground, can we possibly speak of any advantage at all?

A privilege or a penalty?

Well OK, let’s say there is still some advantage at being first of your group.

But we all shall agree that, on December 19 in Nyon, France, when everyone gets ready to draw lots, many of the representatives of these “happy” teams that finished first, will be crossing fingers not to get one of the terror-inspiring foes who lay in unusual numbers in the second pot.

In other words: Manchester United, Liverpool, Roma, Barça, Porto, Juventus, Bayern, and Panathinakos finished first, while Chelsea, Arsenal, Real Madrid, Inter, Villareal, Lyon, Sporting, and Atlético finished second.

That means, considering the fact that teams from the same country cannot be paired at this stage, that a club like AS Roma could be facing the likes of Chelsea, Arsenal, or Real Madrid sooner than expected, as a “prize” for finishing first of their group. And that a team like Chelsea could face Barça, but also could face Panathinakos.

The Greek team is the candy that every second placed team wants. For the first placed ones, Porto is the one set to “fish” the toughest test, as it can be paired with any of the second placed teams with the exception of Sporting, allegedly the weakest one. 

In light of the above, we shall not be surprised if we witness some main courses early in the competition, such as a Manchester United—Real Madrid, a Liverpool—Inter (again in the same stage), or a Barça—Arsenal (2005 final). 

Audiences and media rights holders will be pleased with the matching possibilities, but I’m afraid some supporters won’t be at all.

Second leg at home, a double-edged sword

And then we conclude that having your opponent playing the decisive match at your own headquarters, with your public set to play the 12th player role, should be a point in your favor.

In "normal" conditions, indeed it is.

However, with such illustrious rivals available as visitors, the factor i believe is set to play a major role is the double value of the goals scored as visitors, with some powerful offensive-prone squads—such as Arsenal or Real Madrid—standing out as a real problem at this respect.

Trying to get a good result in the first leg, and playing cautiously in the second (where playing cautiously means defensively) in order to speculate with the result, could be the key for many of these first placed teams to survive in this tournament.