Fantasy Football: Week 15 Preview, Part One

"Playoffs? We're talking 'bout playoffs?" 

It's always nice to bust out the old quotes, especially where we are talking about the playoffs. We've got the early games covered today, so let's get right to it. 

New Orleans at Chicago 

Who to Start: Reggie Bush, Lance Moore, Kyle Orton, Greg Olsen, Rashied Davis, Devin Hester 

Who to Sit: Pierre Thomas, Devery Henderson 

What to Expect: I'm curious how this one will go. 

I think Orton ends up one of the better quarterback plays this week because of how weak the Saints' secondary has been. Davis, Hester, and Olsen will all benefit from this, as Orton likely goes for 265 with a pair of touchdowns. I like Hester better than Davis, unless you're in a PPR league. Olsen is a fine tight end play. 

Matt Forte is going to be just fine this week. The Saints haven't proven that defense is their calling card, so nothing should stop owners from using all Bears. 

For the Saints, you're obviously starting Brees if you have him. I think he's held under 285 yards, but likely puts three scores on the board. Lance Moore is finally getting more respect with the number of catches and yards he has put up, and this week he's a good start. Marques Colston and Jeremy Shockey are plays as well. 

In the backfield, I'm playing Bush over Thomas. The Bears can stop the run very well, and I think that holds Thomas back. Don't be fooled based on his big day last week, this is a different ball game entirely. Bush can rack up yards through the air and in the return game. That's the difference.

Sleeper Pickup: Davis. Orton seems to really like this guy, keep him around for this matchup. 

Tampa Bay at Atlanta 

Who to Start: Cadillac Williams, Antonio Bryant, Jeff Garcia (Deep Leagues)
 
Who to Sit: Matt Ryan, Jerious Norwood, Michael Jenkins
 
What to Expect: We've seen the Falcons shred a lot of defenses, but this is one with something to prove. 

After getting torn up last week, the Bucs are going to come out to prove a point. This is a key division game for these teams, and I think it ends up as one of the best of the weekend. I'm not going to rely on Matt Ryan here. 

Roddy White is still fine, but the rookie quarterback against a defense with a chip on their shoulder doesn't have me thinking "playoff start." 

Michael Turner is still going to be a must-play, but don't reach for Norwood in this matchup. I know, the Panthers ran all over them. I just don't see it happening again. Monte Kiffin isn't going to allow it to happen again. Just how it is. 

For Tampa, I'm not going to say to start Jeff Garcia, but deep-league owners could do worse. In 12-team formats, if you're stuck without a good matchup as your primary, Garcia could be productive against a secondary ranked in the lower-half of the league. Bryant will certainly make a decent play as a WR3 or flex if needed. 

Cadillac did score a touchdown last week, but he only rushed for 31 yards. He was saved by the touchdown more than anything. I think this is an easier week. You can run on Atlanta, and Cadillac will be given the chance. He's a better play than Dunn this week in my eyes.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Williams. Just a feeling, but it could be a good one here. 

Washington at Cincinnati 

Who to Start: Jason Campbell, Ladell Betts, Antwaan Randle El, Cedric Benson (Deep Leagues)
 
Who to Sit: Ryan Fitzpatrick, Chad Johnson
 
What to Expect: You would expect that this would be an offensive showcase from Washington. 

With Washington, every time we expect something, we seem to get the opposite. I'm going with the numbers, and I'll recommend playing Campbell if you don't have better options. He should go for 240 with two touchdowns without getting picked. Cincinnati has been lit up by most of their opponents, even though they play better at home.  

There are certainly many players I like better, but Santana Moss should be started, and I'd play Randle El as a flex in a pinch. Chris Cooley is going to be fine every week. 

I don't really like the way the running game has been handled, but Betts showed last week that he can make plays. Deep-league owners should take note, and look to use him as an RB3 or flex, especially given the way Portis has been handled. It's a reach play, but it has upside. 

For the Bengals, you can get away with playing T.J. Houshmandzadeh, and even Cedric Benson if you really need a running back because of matchups or injuries. I'm just not going to play anyone else in this case. It's too late in the season to try and get cute.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Betts. He did it last week. While Portis is likely going to see the bulk of the action, Betts has a lot of upside and there are plenty of backs hurt or with bad matchups. 

Seattle at St. Louis 

Who to Start: Maurice Morris, John Carlson, Deion Branch, Seneca Wallace
 
Who to Sit: Marc Bulger/Trent Green, all other Rams
 
What to Expect: Expect Seattle to continue the offense they got going last week, while St. Louis keeps looking for answers. 

Seneca Wallace may not be the answer at quarterback for playoff teams that are sticking to the safer plays, but he did manage to tear up a weak secondary in New England and gets the same type this weekend in St. Louis. Even if you avoid him, Branch and Carlson are solid starts. 

Carlson continues to play well. He scored in Week 12, had over 100 yards in Week 13, then put up 80 yards and a score in Week 14. I like that trend. While Branch doesn't have the same motivation this week, he was targeted frequently and showed off some tremendous athletic ability against the Pats. 

I'm starting Maurice Morris this week, as it has become evident he's the back of choice in Seattle right now. Against the Rams, I'm looking for 80 yards and a score in this one. 

I don't think anyone on St. Louis is worth the play this week. I don't care who they are. If you must play Jackson, do so with caution. Bulger and Green have both been bad, they aren't getting any production out of Donnie Avery, and Seattle can get pressure on the quarterback. Just a friendly warning. 

Sleeper Pickup: Morris. He's going to be in for a good game here. 

San Francisco at Miami

Who to Start: Ricky Williams, Davone Bess, Ted Ginn, Chad Pennington, Isaac Bruce, Shaun Hill
 
Who to Sit: Michael Robinson, Frank Gore
 
What to Expect: Miami won't be surprised by the 49ers the way the Jets seemed to be. That said, the Dolphins seem content to do just enough to win, but not much more. 

I'm still going to ride this one. Chad Pennington is steady. He's not going to hurt you, and in leagues where you get points for completions, he helps out a fair amount. Quietly, he's thrown for over 3,000 yards this season, and doesn't make mistakes. He'll have a decent day here, with 225 and two touchdowns in this one. 

I like Davone Bess a ton here. He's getting all the looks that Greg Camarillo was, and is making the most of them. Bess should be good for another eight catches, 80 yards, and a score. Anthony Fasano should get the other. I like Ginn because of how he can give you yards in nearly every phase of the game. His big play potential gives him plenty of upside. 

Williams and Ronnie Brown are basically splitting carries. You can run on the 49ers, and the Dolphins will look to do that to control play. Williams has upside as a flex, and you should only be using Brown as an RB3 or flex. Their stats will fall in line, as they combine for around 140 yards and a score. 

For the 'Niners, don't expect the world from Gore. In addition to being hurt, Miami is only giving up around 100 yards rushing per game in their last five. Good stats from a team that hasn't been as solid on defense in the last three seasons. His injury already makes him a risk and a borderline start. 

I like Shaun Hill, and he should throw for two scores on the Dolphins. I like Isaac Bruce the most, and wouldn't rule out him grabbing both. Don't look to Vernon Davis. Yahoo! sports points out that Miami is one of the toughest defenses for tight ends in the league.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Bess. In PPR leagues, there are few guys hotter right now. 

Buffalo at New York Jets 

Who to Start: Leon Washington, Brett Favre, Jerricho Cotchery, Dustin Keller
 
Who to Sit: Fred Jackson, J.P. Losman
 
What to Expect: Expect this to be more of the Brett Favre show than previous games.

The Bills secondary hasn't been good, and Favre is the type of quarterback that will attempt to take advantage. Success in doing so is likely another story. I think he does enough to be worth a start. Keep Keller in lineups, as he has been targeted often and is producing. I like Cotchery here as well. 

Leon Washington should be fine as a flex play, and since he's a more valuable receiver than Thomas Jones, I can see him finding the end zone. Jones is still a solid play in this case, and starting him is a must anyway. 

The Bills are making this tough. I'm hearing rumblings that Trent Edwards should be back under center. If that's the case, then playing Marshawn Lynch is a much better bet than it would be with Losman. Teams don't seem to respect Losman's ability, and are daring him to throw the ball. 

It's the only explanation I can come up with for why they only gave Lynch the ball 13 times against Miami and not once to Fred Jackson. The Jets are good against the run, and Buffalo will need a quarterback that represents a threat to throw the football in order to open things up. I'm cool on Lynch for that reason. 

Outside of Lee Evans, I'm cool on the rest of the Bills offense as well. I can't see them making this interesting with the way they're playing right now. The Jets can stop the run, but without a decent quarterback throwing the ball, the Bills won't take advantage of the weak secondary.

Lynch as a PPR play is decent, but in non-PPR formats, I'm not a fan.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Keller. Just keeps getting better each week. 

Detroit at Indianapolis 

Who to Start: All your Colts
 
Who to Sit: All your Lions not named Calvin Johnson
 
What to Expect: I don't know how the Colts got this schedule. It doesn't seem right, does it? 

I don't know how else to say that you start everyone in the passing game, so I'll just say that you start everyone in the passing game. Peyton Manning, Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Marvin Harrison, Anthony Gonzalez, get everyone in the pool. 

Looking at the rushing attack is harder. I'm not to keen on either back because of the split carries in this case. I'd go with Dominic Rhodes if I had to choose, but that's only if you're putting a gun to my head. 

Stay away from the Lions. They don't know who is going to be under center this week, and that should be enough for all of us to take them out of lineups. Let's not go down this road. After all, I was always told that if you can't say anything nice, you shouldn't say anything.

Sleeper Pickup: Anthony Gonzalez. I think he's going to be the surprise in this one. 

San Diego at Kansas City 

Who to Start: Vincent Jackson, Philip Rivers, Tyler Thigpen
 
Who to Sit: Darren Sproles, Mark Bradley
 
What to Expect: This is one that should see the offenses explode. So you know that means we'll see a defensive struggle. 

Vincent Jackson hasn't been stopped by anyone recently, and the Chiefs secondary can be beaten deep. Rivers hasn't been fantastic, but he should be more than able to do the job against Kansas City. Look for him to hit 260 with two touchdown passes. I don't think he gets a third, but the two should be a safe bet. 

Jackson needs to be started, and I'll even use Chambers if I need a flex spot. Jackson just has much more upside in this equation. 

San Diego should be able to take advantage of the weak run defense the Chiefs have, and I like Tomlinson to play a big role in this one. You obviously have to start him here. I'm not reaching for Sproles, as he's been too hit or miss for my liking. 

As far as the Chiefs go, I like Dwayne Bowe and Tony Gonzalez this week. Each should be started without a question. Because of that, I'm going with Thigpen as well. In deep leagues, he's worth the flyer and should be viewed as a decent matchup play. 

The Chiefs running game is up in the air, and with the spread offense I'd avoid it. Yes, the Chargers do give up yards on the ground, but their inability to get pressure on the quarterback is what has driven them down in the West. They've given up more points than they've scored. Look for the Chiefs to do it through the air.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Thigpen. 

Green Bay at Jacksonville 

Who to Start: Maurice Jones-Drew, Jordy Nelson, Donald Lee, Donald Driver
 
Who to Sit: David Garrard, Matt Jones (suspension)
 
What to Expect: Expect this to be a mess for Jacksonville. 

Stay away from any Jaguars receiver here. In addition to the Packers being tough against the pass, Garrard will be without both Matt Jones and Jerry Porter. That's going to make coverage much easier for Green Bay. Sitting Garrard seems to be the way to go. 

I like Jones-Drew, as Fred Taylor's season is officially over (as reported by the AP). It's a shame it happened that way, but it does give Jones-Drew owners reason to be excited. It's likely this limits his return duties, but should be a good sign for his rushing and receiving numbers. Keep him in your lineups and enjoy the results. 

For the Packers, you should expect some good days. You're already starting Aaron Rodgers, Greg Jennings, and Ryan Grant. You should add Nelson, Driver, and Lee to that list. I don't think the Jags have the depth to stay with these guys.

Driver has been a WR3 play all season, and he should give good numbers. In deep leagues, Nelson has some serious upside. 

Donald Lee should be a fine tight end play, as he likely gets near 60 yards on five or six catches.
 
Sleeper Pickup: Nelson. Just a feeling, but I liked what we got to see last week.