MLB Offseason: 2012 Milwaukee Brewers

"What's next?"

That was the one consistent thought running through my head as I delved into a fit of depression after the Brewers were eliminated by the St. Louis Cardinals in game 6 of the NLCS. It was a brilliant season, certainly one of the best for this franchise that has so long been mediocre.

This team won more games than any other Brewers team, they were the best home team in all of baseball, they won their first postseason series since 1982, and this beastly group of players provided ample amounts of excitement for anyone who cared to watch. They shook the establishment of baseball with their outspoken nature, their "beastly" celebrations, and most importantly, their ability to play great baseball.

It took me nearly a week to accept defeat, and it has taken me until now to come to terms with the fact that this team that I loved for an entire season is going to be different in 2012. The Brewers are going to be hit hard by free agency. Prince Fielder is almost definitely going to find a new home in 2012. Francisco Rodriguez, unhappy as a set-up man, will be looking to close somewhere else. Takashi Saito and LaTroy Hawkins are entering free agency, and valuable utility men like Mark Kotsay and Jerry Hairston Jr. are going to be free agents as well.

Yet, I firmly believe that the Brewers are going to be just fine. Doug Melvin and his management team have no short task in front of them—this is a team and a fanbase that now knows what it feels like to win, and to contend for a World Series. Accordingly, Melvin understands that he must put together a team that can compete in a tough division. This means spending money on players who are arbitration eligible, spending money on free agents, possibly pulling off a big trade or two, and taking chances with talent from the farm.

As the offseason begins, let's take a look at what the 2012 Brewers may look like.

First Base

Let's jump right in with the most talked about player on the Brewers roster heading into the off-season—Prince Fielder.

I think most Brewers fans have come to terms with the fact that Fielder, one of the major driving forces in the Brewers line up, is likely going to be wearing a different jersey in 2012. It stings even typing those words, and thinking about it drives me crazy, but the sooner we accept the fact that Prince is going to demand more than the Brewers can afford, the sooner we can move on to filling his almost certain vacancy. 

That being said, the Brewers should make an effort to keep Prince around, if for no other reason than it can't hurt to try. If Prince is willing to accept a hometown discount to stay with the only organization he has ever known professionally, the Brewers and their fans would be elated to have him around.

When and if it becomes obvious Prince is going elsewhere, however, management is going to have to look at their options. The most obvious option seems to be to promote Mat Gamel from AAA Nashville. Originally at third base, Gamel was moved over to first in anticipation of Fielder's departure. Offensively, he has torn up AAA pitchers for two years in a row, batting .310/.372/.540 with 28 HR and 96 RBI in 128 games played in 2011. No one is saying he is going to replace Fielder's offensive output, and his extremely limited statistical data from the majors is slightly scary—only 38 hits in 171 at-bats—but he is the best option. He will never win a gold glove, but Gamel is actually an upgrade defensively from Fielder, who was barely better than adequate in the field.

Other options are less likely. James Loney may be dropped from the Dodgers in 2012, and if he is, the Brewers may take a serious look into picking him up for a year or two. Loney has never lived up to his potential offensively, but he is a huge upgrade defensively. The Brewers could also look at picking up a veteran free agent like Derrek Lee to ease Mat Gamel into the starting position.

MOST LIKELY: Gamel becomes every day starter at first base.

Second Base

Second base is the only position in the Brewers infield with any type of certainty going into 2012. Rickie Weeks will be back as the starter in 2012. Weeks has had an up and down career, but in the last two years he has come to be an invaluable member in the Brewers lineup. His defense has never been great, but his offensive production has been more than enough reason to keep him in the lineup despite the occasional defensive hiccup.

Weeks suffered a terrible injury after the All-Star break, majorly spraining his ankle, landing him on the DL for a month and a half. Despite the injury, and playing the rest of the year below 100% due to his ankle, Weeks put up solid numbers offensively, batting .269 with 20 homers and 49 RBIs, mostly from the leadoff position. Barring any offseason/spring training injuries or setbacks, Weeks will be back at full strength in 2012, and should prove to be a big asset for the team, especially if Fielder leaves. 

His position in the lineup is up in the air. Weeks was normally a leadoff hitter for the Brewers, but after his injury, he was moved to 5th in the order after Braun and Fielder. If Fielder departs, he could be batting clean-up behind Braun. He may also be moved back to lead-off position in place of Hart, who would also be a good clean-up hitter.

MOST LIKELY: Weeks maintains his starting position.

Shortstop

Another hot topic this offseason will be upgrading Yuniesky Betancourt at shortstop. The team will almost undoubtedly decline his 6 million dollar option, and let Yuni B go this offseason. 

Full disclosure, I do not hate Betancourt as much as most people; in fact, I don't hate him at all. I think a fair bit of the animosity towards Yuniesky is misdirected and prejudged based off of the player that he is supposed to be. Yuni is described as a horrible infielder incapable of making routine plays consistently, and a horrible batter, incapable of holding his bat on his shoulder for bad pitches. The former is not entirely true—Yuni is never, ever even going to be mentioned in a discussion for a gold glove, but to say he's completely useless in the field is without merit. He made some big plays, and he was certainly better than advertised at the position. Offensively, it is true that he can't hold back from swinging, but he can hit... sometimes. He had a great second half of the season, and a solid postseason at the plate.

That being said, the Brewers should upgrade. Yuniesky is a solid option for 2-3 million, but spending 6 million dollars on him is just not worth it when there are better options available. 

What I want to happen is a pipe dream, and completely contingent on Fielder not staying with the Brewers. There is a scenario in which Jose Reyes comes to Miller Park in a Brewers uniform, albeit an unlikely one. If it becomes clear that the Brewers are not in contention for the Fielder sweepstakes, the Brewers can and should go after Reyes, who is arguably the best defensive shortstop in the game, and a legitimate, prototypical leadoff threat, something the Brewers have not had in years.

The most cost effective and likely option will be to pursue Clint Barmes. The Astros are unloading, and an aging shortstop that costs any amount of money just does not fit into their long term plans. This opens the door for Milwaukee, who would be foolish not to go after Barmes. He will come fairly cheaply, probably around 5-6 million a year annually, and he is an upgrade to Yuniesky in essentially every way. He had a bit of a poor year offensively, but defensively, he's a top notch player. Signing him to a 2 or 3 year deal would give the Brewers a huge defensive upgrade, and a solid bat at a volatile position that is hard to fill.

Jimmy Rollins is another option, though I simply do not see this one happening. The Phillies like Rollins, and he is going to be more expensive than Barmes with not much more of an upside.

MOST LIKELY: Brewers let Betancourt go and sign Clint Barmes to a three-year, $15 million dollar deal.

Third Base

Finally, the last position to talk about in what will probably be a completely revamped infield, save Rickie Weeks. It is now clear to Brewers fans, and hopefully the ownership, that Casey McGehee is not the answer at third base. I love the guy, but this is a business, and it appears that McGehee has regressed to his mean. At his best, he was a solid offensive threat behind Braun and Fielder. However, it is fairly clear that he is not as good as his 2009 and 2010 seasons made us to believe, and the Brewers are going to have to make some changes to improve here.

Unfortunately, the free agent market for third basemen begins and ends with Aramis Ramirez. Again, there are big "if's" involved here, but IF the Brewers can't sign Fielder, and IF the Brewers can't sign Reyes, then Ramirez should become a target for the Brewers. Offensively, he is very good, and defensively… well, let's not kid ourselves, anyone is better than McGehee. That said, Ramirez is typically a good defender, though he had his difficulties at the hot corner this year. Regardless, if all else falls, he would be a solid consolation prize for the Fielder/Reyes sweepstakes.

After that, there are two options inside of the Brewers organization. Taylor Green will be good in a probationary scenario. He is better than McGehee in the field, and he has shown glimpses of being a reliable, possibly even dependable bat. There is a possibility that this year could have been a fluke, however. Prior to 2011, Green was never the player he was this year, and it will be worth watching him moving forward.

The other in-home option is Jerry Hairston Jr. I am going to ignore the last two games of the series defensively for him and call them a fluke because he usually is a very dependable glove, no matter where you put him. The postseason was very kind to Hairston offensively as he batted .385/.422/.538 with six 2B, four RBI, and eight runs scored. It is fair to assume that he won't put up numbers like that in an everyday role in the regular season, but we can expect a solid bat, and a solid-to-good glove if he is given the role. The best thing about at least resigning Hairston is that you get one of the best utility players in the game, regardless of what you do with him. Hairston has experience in every position on the field apart from pitcher and catcher, and he SHOULD be re-signed by the Brewers.

MOST LIKELY: Sign Hairston to a two-year, $7 million deal. Keep him as a regular starter, however, give Green a start every fifth day or so.

Outfield

Possibly the most stable position in all of baseball will be Ryan Braun's spot in left field. If Fielder departs, Braun will be the anchor for this team, and that is okay with me. Braun is obviously one of the biggest offensive threats in all of baseball, and he has come into his own defensively over the past few years.

Corey Hart (and Weeks at second) will also likely be asked to put on his superstar shoes in 2012. It is possible that the solid (though streaky) bat of Hart will be moved to third or fourth in the lineup, depending on where Roenicke places Braun and Weeks. Hart is also a defensive plus in right field, routinely making great plays in his pasture.

Center is the only possible question mark. Both Nyjer Morgan and Carlos Gomez are arbitration eligible, and both should be given a raise for next year, though neither will be prohibitively expensive. The best option at center is to keep platooning Gomez and Morgan. They are both good defensively, with Gomez being one of the best in the game. Offensively, Morgan is obviously more dependable than Gomez currently, but Gomez has shown signs that his bat just might come to life. Gomez is still young at 25 years old, and if he continues to improve, even a mediocre bat will be good enough reason to start him every day at center. There is every reason to believe Gomez has the raw talent to be a 30-30, possibly even 30-40 type of player. Once on the bases, there is no one faster than Gomez, and stealing bases, stretching doubles into triples, and legging out infield homers is second nature to Gomez.

Logan Schaefer will also be battling for a spot on the roster. He is certainly a good option defensively, and he has proven he can hit for average in the minors. Mark Kotsay should also be kept by the Brewers as a utility man, and extra outfielder. Aside from that, no outside moves should be made to improve what is obviously the strength of the Brewers going into 2012.

MOST LIKELY: Braun starts at left, Morgan/Gomez platoon center, Hart starts at right, Kotsay as a backup.

Catcher

This one is boring. Jonathan Lucroy doesn't technically have a contract set up for 2012 yet, but he will certainly be back as the Brewers catcher in 2012. He has quietly become one of the most reliable defensive catchers in the game, and although the torrid pace he started with out of the gates in 2011 slowed down significantly, he still has a reliable bat for a catcher. Lucroy has also shown that, despite his young age, he has excellent chemistry with all of his battery mates.

George Kottaras will also likely be back as the Brewers back-up catcher, pairing up with Randy Wolf every fifth day. He is a solid back-up catcher, at times having an outstanding bat (as proven by his cycle in 2011), and he is passable defensively. He is a good option for a back up catcher.

MOST LIKELY: Lucroy signs on as the long-term starter for the Brewers, Kottaras returns as backup. 

Starting Rotation

If there is anything to be relieved about going into the offseason for the Brewers, it is the fact that their starting rotation will probably remain completely intact for at least one more year. There are a few issues once you look a little closer, however.

The Brewers have club ace Yovani Gallardo locked up long term, and that is great news. Yo is coming off of career bests in wins (17), ERA (3.52), innings pitched (207.1), and strikeouts (207). Gallardo is only 25 years old, and as he continues to hone his skills as he enters his prime, he will likely become a household name. He has Cy Young capabilities that just need further refinement.

The next big extension they should make is Zack Greinke. Greinke likely won't demand Cy Young money, as he has not had a Cy Young caliber year since 2009. However, at the very least, Greinke is a strong top of the rotation starter with tremendously huge upside. If the Brewers can't sign Fielder, money should be set aside to lock Greinke up.

Shaun Marcum is arbitration eligible, and is probably going to get a significant raise. There are some huge red flags waving about Marcum moving forward. He suffered a full on late season collapse, and turned in some of the worst postseason performances by any pitcher in the history of baseball. That said, there is no reason to ditch him yet. He was good to great for most of the season, and as long as he recovers from his late season woes, Marcum should be offered an extension.

Randy Wolf is entering the final year of his three-year deal with the Brewers. He has a $10 million option in 2013, and if he turns in another year like 2011, the Brewers may look to keep him around. Wolf isn't going to blow anyone away, and his stats seem plainly vanilla, but the fact that he can consistently throw over 200 innings and have an ERA in the mid to high three's makes him one of the better number 4 starters in baseball.

Things get a bit hairy at this point. It was just revealed that Chris Narveson is undergoing hip surgery this offseason. It was made clear that Narveson should be ready to pitch by the time spring training rolls around, but there are some options to explore. 

There are solid free agent options available. Buster Olney has recently reported that the Brewers are serious contenders to sign C.J. Wilson. This would be a huge pick up for the Brewers, and would improve what was already one of the better rotations in baseball. Wilson posted a 16-7 record with a 2.94 ERA, and struck out 206 batters in just over 223 innings. Other possible free agent pickups could be Edwin Jackson or Mark Buehrle. 

The only starting pitcher in the Brewers farm system that appears as though he could be ready to take on a full time starting position is Wily Peralta, though the Brewers would be wise to test him in the bullpen first to make sure his pitching style translates well from the minors to the majors. Peralta has the repertoire, the stamina, and the potential to be a very good starter on this rotation, but the Brewers are probably going to want to ease him in.

MOST LIKELY: 1 - Gallardo, 2- Greinke, 3 - Marcum, 4 - Wolf, 5 - Narveson with Peralta getting spot starts

Bullpen

The bullpen was a strength for the Brewers after acquiring Francisco Rodriguez at the trade deadline. Going into the offseason, however, the bullpen is a concern. LaTroy Hawkins, Takashi Saito, and Francisco Rodriguez are all heading to free agency. This basically leaves two dependable arms in the bullpen—John Axford and Kameron Loe. If Hawkins, Saito, and Rodriguez all go, that basically decimates the Brewers seventh inning go to corps, as well as the set-up options.

If there is one person on this team that is more likely to not be in a Brewers uniform next season than Fielder, it is Rodriguez. K-Rod was a rent-a-player at the trade deadline, and the Brewers have no chance to sign him after this year with Axford closing games as well as he does. K-Rod wants nothing to do with setting up another closer, and he will certainly look for a place to close.

Hawkins and Saito could both conceivably be back, or they both could conceivably be gone. There is no way of telling at this point. Hawkins was pretty good this year in his role, but if he expects anything more than the 4.25 million he is getting from the Brewers this season in the future, the Brewers should not oblige. Saito was also great this year when he was healthy. He only pitched in 26.2 regular season innings, but he posted an ERA of 2.03, struck out 23, and had a WHIP of 1.13. He also had a good postseason, not surrendering a single run in 7 innings pitched. He came to the Brewers at a bargain of $1.75 million, and if he can be kept for roughly that same price (with a slight raise), he should be.

There is also a pretty strong crop of free agent relievers poised to storm the market. Names like Darren Oliver, Rafael Betancourt, Matt Belisle, Frank Francisco, and Javier Lopez are all inexpensive options that could bolster the bullpen, and if the Brewers fail to keep either Hawkins or Saito, at least one of these pitchers should be explored.

In the organization, there are several options to help out as well. Narveson is the inside lefty option, but moving him from the starting rotation could open up a fifth starter problem. If a lefty free agent (like Belisle or Lopez) is not signed, there might not be an option but to move Narveson to the pen. Zach Braddock and Mitch Stetter are also lefties in the organization, but both of them missed essentially the entire regular season, and it is a safe bet that neither will be on the opening day roster.

As mentioned earlier, Wily Peralta will probably be in the bullpen in 2012. Peralta is a fireballer with three-to-four plus pitches, and has the stamina, training, and talent to be a starter in the future, but he can begin contributing immediately with a spot in the bullpen.

After Peralta, organizationally, things start to get a little thin. Michael Fiers burst onto the scene last year and despite the fact that he's definitely a late bloomer, he could be useful in the bullpen. Tyler Thornburg is an organizational favorite, but he probably won't make the team this year, as he is still at least a year behind the majors on the developmental ladder. Cody Scerpetta is also still hanging around in the minor leagues, but his lack of control is really starting to drag him down, and his development seems to have taken a turn for the worse.

MOST LIKELY: Axford, Loe, Saito all return, Brewers pick up a lefty from the free agency like Javier Lopez, Peralta makes opening day bullpen.

*Note* There are too many variables to make a real prediction here. The Brewers are almost definitely going to pick up someone out of free agency, and aside from Loe, Axford, and probably Saito, the bullpen will probably look much different.

Roundup

The Milwaukee Brewers have a lot going for them in 2012 and beyond. There was a lot of buzz that the Brewers were putting all of their chips into the pot for a run in 2011, and while it was one of the best seasons in franchise history, the team fell just short of their goal to win the World Series. Ultimately though, they did not go all-in. This team has a great amount of talent returning, with a core line up that can potentially be as good as any team in baseball, and pitching that can compete with anyone.

With the right moves this offseason, the Brewers can again make another run at the title, even if the make-up of the team is different than it was in 2011. It is an exciting time to be a Brewers fan, and I am already looking forward to February, when pitchers and catchers report.