Boston Bruins: 5 Reasons Brad Marchand Will Have a Breakout Year

Hard to believe that the one-year anniversary of Brad Marchand’s first NHL goal is still not for another week.

Putting in his 29th regular-season appearance with the Boston Bruins that night, he beat Buffalo Sabres stopper Jhonas Enroth on a shorthanded stab to break the ice en route to a 5-2 win and first-star accolades.

The surprises only snowballed over the ensuing months. Originally a grinder out of the farm system, Marchand went on to eclipse No. 2 draft choice Tyler Seguin as the Bruins’ top-performing rookie in 2010-11. With a 21-20-41 scoring log, he easily garnered the team’s Seventh Player Award as the Bruin who most exceeded expectations.

Will it be any surprise if Marchand defies both the sophomore slump and Stanley Cup hangover to follow up on his rookie campaign?

For at least five good reasons, not so much. Rather, there are enough reasons to expect a sophomore surge from the sturdy, hard-nosed winger.

More Ice Time

Overall last season, Marchand landed 149 shots on goal in 77 games played for an average of 1.9 per night. So far this year, he has 21 stabs in eight games, which has elevated the median to 2.6 per night.

And remember that he was far from a top-six player for the first half of the 2010-11 campaign. At the same eight-game mark last season, Marchand had taken 11 shots and tallied only one point in the form of an assist. This year, he already has two goals and two helpers.

Now that he is implicitly inseparable from the team’s longest-tenured forward, Patrice Bergeron, Marchand ought to be seeing minutes in the upper teens every night from October to April.

In turn, he will acquire more scoring chances and, in turn, bury more chances over the full course of the season.

More Learnedness

As surprisingly prolific as he was last year, Marchand was prone to cold streaks, particularly down the home stretch of the regular season. Between the final weekend of February and the final weekend of the regular season, he had a seven-game pointless drought, a 12-game goalless skid with two assists in that span and a four-game dry spell to close out.

Granted, he is currently nursing another four-game drought, but that is chiefly a reflection on an almost team-wide hangover. Marchand’s comparative youth and energy ought to help him recover from that more quickly than the majority of his teammates.

Once he does that, his task will be to demonstrate that he has learned how to play a complete NHL season and be more productive in the critical months of February, March and April.

At the very least, his funks should be less frequent and less severe than in 2010-11.

More Physicality

Along with goals and assists, hits were another critical stat to Marchand’s game that dwindled in frequency late last regular season. But his physical presence flared in many playoff games, particularly against Philadelphia and Tampa Bay. In Game 3 of the second round alone, he was credited with seven body checks.

With more conviction and greater expectations, Marchand ought to flaunt his toughness more consistently this year, especially in rivalry games and games with critical implications.

That could start as early as this weekend’s home-and-home set with the Montreal Canadiens.

Transitional Threat

Marchand’s six shorthanded points and plus-25 rating last year underscored an innate defensive proficiency as well as an ability to convert that defense into a spontaneous offensive rush.

Don’t be too quick to file that under “fluke.” Marchand was often a team leader or near the top of a team leaderboard in those categories, particularly plus/minus, at both the major junior and AHL levels.

Who is to say he will not build upon that reputation as he delves deeper into his NHL career and spends the entire year as a top-six forward?

The New Contract

The much-publicized offseason toil for a new deal culminated in an altogether reasonable package for Marchand and the Bruins alike.

Locked in for at least another two years with $2 million coming his way in 2011-12 and another $3 million next season, Marchand has garnered a reasonable reward for going above and beyond in his first full NHL season.

At the same time, there is potentially much more to be earned in the more distant future. With no guarantees as to his place of employment or salary two years from now, Marchand ought to be all the more motivated in the present.

The more he produces now, the more he will justify a fatter contract in the long run.