LSU vs. Alabama Football: ATS Winner Likely Determined in the Trenches

The No. 1 LSU Tigers (8-0) and No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide (8-0) will meet up on Nov. 5 inside Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa and Las Vegas is anticipating a potential record-breaking handle for a regular-season college football game.

Oddsmakers are currently sending out the Crimson Tide as 4.5-point home favorites, while the total is 42.5.

Alabama Heisman Trophy candidate Trent Richardson and LSU running back Spencer Ware figure to play large roles in deciding the outcome, but there's definitely more variables involved in picking an against-the-spread winner.

This Southeastern Conference tilt is fascination to handicapping, inspiring me to create an early betting preview two weeks ago.

Let's take a look at some fascinating numbers that may lead to you cashing a ticket at the betting window next Saturday.

Alabama Crimson Tide Rush Defense

From a power-rating standpoint, Alabama brings the No. 1 rushing defense to the table, but it's also proven statistically. 

The Crimson Tide are allowing just 44.9 rushing yards per game, leading the nation in that category.

Nick Saban has made it a priority to stop the run since coming on campus in 2007, allowing just four players to run for over the century mark in 61 games.

None of those four players were wearing an LSU Tigers uniform.

LSU Tigers Rush Defense

The LSU Tigers rush defense checks in at No. 2 in my power ratings and ranks fourth in the country in allowing just 76.6 yards per game on the ground.

The longest rush by an opposing player this year was 25 yards by Florida running back Chris Rainey against this formidable unit.

Bettors will certainly look at last year's box score to find some disparity, as the Tigers out-gained the Crimson Tide by a 225-102 margin on the ground in last year's 24-21 win as 6.5-point home underdogs.

I wouldn't put too much weight into that contest due to the leading rusher on both sides playing on Sundays this year.

2011 SEC Games: Point Spread of 4.5 or Fewer

I'm a very situational handicapper and found a perfect trend in SEC games that have closed with a point spread of 4.5 points or fewer.

Teams that have won the ground battle in that particular situation are 8-0 ATS this year, covering the number by 10.9 points a game.

Keep a watchful eye on the Florida-Georgia and South Carolina-Tennessee matchups this Saturday due to both fitting within this range.

No. 1 vs. No. 2, Point Spread of 4.5 or Fewer

Teams that have won the ground battle in games featuring No. 1 and No. 2 teams in the AP Top 25 poll with a point spread of 4.5 or fewer points are 11-1 ATS since as far back as I can research the subject.

The last occurrence was in last year's BCS National Championship Game, with Auburn Tigers out-gaining the Oregon Ducks on the ground by 179 yards.

I was able to confirm rushing totals and odds going back to Notre Dame's 27-10 win over USC on Nov. 26, 1988.

Texas provided the only spread loss in this system, falling 24-7 to the Ohio State Buckeyes as three-point home favorites on Sept. 9, 2006, but finished with 93 more yards on the ground.

Nick Saban

Alabama Crimson Tide head coach Nick Saban has been involved in five SEC games with a point spread of 4.5 points or fewer since the start of the 2008 campaign.

He is 4-1 ATS overall in that situation, covering the number in all three games that his team has proven victorious on the ground.

Bettors lost out on backing Saban in last year's meeting with Auburn, dropping a 28-27 decision as 3.5-point home favorites, while rushing for just 69 yards and giving up 111.

During the 2008 meeting in this particular series, Alabama walked away with a 27-21 overtime victory as three-point road favorites, but was out-rushed by 63 yards.

Les Miles

LSU Tigers head coach Les Miles has been involved in 12 SEC games that have kicked off with a spread of 4.5 or fewer points since 2006.

The "Mad Hatter" has tallied an even 6-6 ATS record in those contests.

When looking inside the numbers, the team that has won the ground battle in those affairs has come away with the cash nine times.

Miles would love to get one of his backs over the century mark next Saturday, registering a 24-2 straight-up record when doing so during his time in the Bayou.

It's also important to note that LSU is 40-0 when rushing for over 100 yards and holding its opponents below that all-important number.