Are the New England Patriots Really as Good as They've Looked?

At 5-1, the New England Patriots are among the upper class of the AFC. Of course, there's plenty of time for that to change, but with Bill Belichick and Tom Brady driving the car, don't expect things to get too lost along the way to the playoffs.

Of course, there have been some bumps in the road, and we know Brady's eyes don't look as far down the road in the season as they do down the field, but it's important to check the rear-view once in a while.

After all, the bye week comes with a good share of scouting for the upcoming opponent, but also a bit of self scouting. A look back will show a few accidents and collisions, but it's important to remember that although you are what your record says you are, your record can say you are something totally different in just a few weeks. 

Offense

Key contributors: Tom Brady (67.5 percent completions, 16 touchdowns) and Wes Welker (51 receptions, 785 yards, six touchdowns)

One guy who has to step up: Chad Ochocinco (nine receptions, 136 yards)

Grade: A

Although the Patriots lack a marquee receiver, this offense has the best threat anyone could ask for: the threat of multiplicity. Four receivers have 26 or more catches, so a lot of players are doing their part.

I'm looking at you, Ochocinco.

Regardless, the New England Patriots are a top five offense without question, and it's all because of two guys: Tom Brady and Wes Welker. The two have been an efficiency machine this season, with a passer rating of 111.2 (51 of 72, 785 yards, six touchdowns, four interceptions) on their hook-ups.

Overall, Brady ranks second in passer rating with 104.8, but even that doesn't do 100 percent justice to this offense.  It hasn't been perfect, and in fact, the offense has turned the ball over 10 times through six weeks as opposed to just 10 times in all of 2010. Eight of the 10 turnovers in 2011 have been Brady picks.

With Bill Belichick as their head coach, those turnover problems figure to get fixed sooner rather than later. And with Brady as the quarterback, as proven against the Cowboys, the Patriots always have a chance to pick it up on offense.

Defense

Key contributors: Andre Carter (15 tackles, 2.5 sacks), Kyle Arrington (21 tackles, four interceptions)

One guy who has to step up: Devin McCourty (31 tackles, a bunch of catches and a ton of yards on his watch)

Grade: C+

I don't have to tell you that it hasn't all been good. But I just did.

One thing I do have to tell you, though, is that it's getting better. Since giving up a 21-point lead to the Bills and giving up an average of 26.3 points per game in their first three games, the Patriots have allowed an average of 18.6 points per game in their last three.

New England's defense has put together consecutive solid performances. No one thought they'd say that about this defense after those first three games, but they played well against the Jets and even better against Dallas.

Perhaps the best indication of that improvement is on third down. They are allowing 42.5 percent third-down conversions, and although it's better than their league-worst 47.1 from last season, there's obviously work to be done. They held the Cowboys to 4-for-12 on third down, and the Jets to 3-for-11 with seven three-and-outs.

They have improved, but they won't get to go up against a hapless Mark Sanchez or a turnover-happy Tony Romo and Jason Garrett's conservative late-game playcalling every week. They'll have to start really earning their keep soon.

Special Teams

Grade: B

Personally, I would rather have a special teams unit that stays out of the headlines than one that either a) carries the team to victory or b) drags them to defeat. You can't count on special teams to win games week-in and week-out, but you can count on them to lose games on that frequent of a basis. Just ask the 2010 Chargers.

Zoltan Mesko ranks 14th with 45.8 yards per punt. Stephen Gostkowski ranks 13th, making 90.9 percent of his field-goal tries. Not bad, not special. 

There have been a few notable mistakes, though. Take, for example, the opening kickoff that went out of bounds against the Raiders, or Joe McKnight's 88-yard kickoff return, or Matthew Slater's fumbled return against the Cowboys.

There's been enough blame to go around on special teams, but luckily, the blame hasn't started because the mistakes haven't resulted in losses.

Coaching

Grade: A

The Patriots have gone into nearly every game they've played with a clear game plan. They've executed that game plan, and won the game as a result. Find a detail in there that says the coaching staff deserves less than an A and you win a prize.

It hasn't all been grand, with New England's defense forfeiting yards like a nerd quits in dodgeball: pitifully, before you even throw the ball.

And when the Patriots have lost, it hasn't been playcalling that's gotten them in trouble. It's been ball security. Blame that on coaching if you want, but the coaching staff can't go out there and hang onto the ball for Matthew Slater or Aaron Hernandez.

The real talking point, though, is the penalties. New England currently has 39 penalties, the 10th-highest number in the league. The team's 353 penalty yards are the seventh-most in the league.

That's very uncharacteristic for a Belichick-coached team, and expect that to be a point of great emphasis during the bye.

Characterizing the Games

We saw a few very predictable games to start the season, but the Patriots have been in multiple situations since then and have answered the bell every time.

Week 1 vs. Miami: Shootout

The two quarterbacks combined for 906 yards and six passing touchdowns. And one of them was named Chad Henne. Brady put the offense on his shoulders to the tune of 516 yards and four touchdowns. 

Week 2 vs. San Diego: Another shootout

This time, the two passers produced 782 yards through the air and five touchdowns. The Patriots never trailed, and after the midway point in the second quarter, they never led by fewer than six.

Week 3 vs. Buffalo: Another shootout...and a choke job

Brady threw four interceptions and the Patriots still had a chance to win. Several lapses and a lack of execution ultimately led to a 21-point road lead disappearing like smoke in the air.

Week 4 vs. Oakland: Bounce back, shut down Darren McFadden

What was a back-and-forth game in the first half quickly turned into a blowout in the second half. A momentum-changing end-zone interception right before the half that went right into Patrick Chung's hands was the big difference.

Minus a 41-yard run, the league's leading rusher, Darren McFadden, was limited to 34 yards on 13 carries.

Week 5 vs. New York Jets: Team win

Despite putting up 321 yards and a 100.7 passer rating, it wasn't as huge of a day from Brady as we'd come to expect. Still, the defense picked it up on his behalf and didn't let the Jets get away with anything they shouldn't have. They also forced four consecutive three-and-outs to start the game, and seven overall.

Week 6 vs. Dallas: Defense and a comeback drive

There's not much left to be said about the final drive of the game, but the defense set that up with a few crucial stands on third down. They held the Cowboys to just 33 percent both in the red zone (1 for 3) and on third down (4 of 12).

Conclusion

They are as good as they've looked on offense. They're beginning to look better on defense, and their performance after the bye will be very telling as to whether that was an optical illusion or a reality. 

It won't always be perfect on the stat sheet, but that's why Belichick coined the phrase, "Stats are for losers." 

Just knowing that the team is capable of winning such a variety of games, and capable of calling upon both the offense and the defense to rise to the occasion is a big deal.

To stay consistent, they need to get back to Patriot football—no penalties, no turnovers.

In the end, how far this team goes hinges on their defense. A 5-1 start is great, but let's not forget the offense carried them most of the way.

The defense took a big step in complementing the offense against the Cowboys, but they must keep improving to avoid another letdown in January.

Erik Frenz is the co-host of the PatsPropaganda and Frenz podcast. Follow Erik on Twitter  @erikfrenz.