Lakers-Celtics Finals Rematch Would See a Celtics Repeat

We are only a quarter through the 2008-09 NBA season, but fans and analysts are already anticipating a Los Angeles Lakers and Boston Celtics Finals rematch. The Celtics are an NBA-best 19-2 with a league best 11-game winning streak, while the Lakers are by far best in the West, sitting at 16-2.

There are very few teams that stand in the way between these two rivals. Only the Cleveland Cavaliers (17-3, 10-0 at home) seem to have enough firepower to challenge the Celtics in the East, while the Lakers already appear to be running away with their second Western Conference championship.

David Stern and fans would be looking at a dream rematch, barring upsets or injuries, which begs the question: Who would win the championship rematch between the Lakers and Celtics?

Only time will give a definitive answer in June, 2009. But if the NBA Finals were to start today between these two teams, the Celtics would be celebrating a championship repeat over the Lakers in six games.

The Celtics have relied on the “Big Three” in Kevin Garnet, Paul Pierce, and Ray Allen, along with strong team defense, to give them the NBA’s best record. They are holding opponents to a league-best 89.7 points per game while winning by an average margin of 9.4 points.

Rajon Rondo is playing at a very high level, averaging career highs in assists (7.7), steals (2.2), rebounds (4.8), and field-goal percentage (52.5 percent). Rondo is also pushing the ball exceptionally well, scoring on easy layups or finding open teammates in transition.

And despite losing James Posey, last year’s key role player and possibly the best perimeter defender, this year’s role players have stepped up their play and are playing at a high level.  

The Lakers have looked dominant in their first 18 games, averaging a league-best 108.6 points per game while outscoring the opponents by 12.2 points. They also lead the league in steals and are second in rebounding.

The starting lineup features Pau Gasol and a healthy Andrew Bynum in the frontcourt, while Lamar Odom and a healthy Trevor Ariza come off the bench. The Lakers are playing very well offensively and are blowing out their opponents to the point where Kobe Bryant does not have to play in the fourth quarter many nights.

Bryant is averaging only 34 minutes a game, the least he’s played since his first two years in the NBA, and has never looked fresher at this point in any season in his career. The Lakers may be the deepest and most talented team in the NBA.

But at this point in the season, the Lakers are not the best team in the NBA; the road to the title still goes through Boston, and the Celtics would repeat as champions if they played the Lakers now.  

Although both teams appear even on paper, the discrepancy between the teams are the commitment to defense and intensity.

The Lakers came into the 2008-09 with something to prove after being outplayed defensively and getting thrashed by the Celtics in Game Six in last year’s playoffs. Phil Jackson, Kobe, and the Lakers vowed to come into the season with a new focus on defense, especially by pairing Bynum and Gasol together to clog the paint, and having Kobe and Ariza patrol the perimeter.

But despite the Lakers' stellar record, the team still lacks the focus to play championship defense for 48 minutes. It was apparent in their last four games against the Raptors, Pacers, 76ers, and Wizards, which cost them a game and nearly cost them another.

The Raptors cut a late third-quarter 14-point deficit to six; the Pacers rallied from 17-point deficit to win on Troy Murphy’s last-second tip; the 76ers got into the lane at will and scored on easy layups; the Wizards rallied from a 20-point deficit and would’ve won had Caron Butler’s made his last-second three-point attempt.

In other games, the Lakers have blown large leads, played poor transition defense, and opponents have managed to score easily in the paint.

The Celtics, on the other hand, have carried their defense from the previous season into this season. They have taken care of business defensively from start to finish, and when they get large leads, they rarely allow the other team to get back into the game. During the Celtics’ 11-game winning streak, they have held opponents to 84.8 points per game and have won by an average of 16.2 points.

The Celtics also maintain a high level of intensity throughout all 48 minutes of the game on defense and offense. Even if the Celtics have a 20-point lead, they play as if they were trailing by 10 points, intent on scoring and making stops.

The Lakers, in comparison, relax and become careless, which has led to turnovers and easy transition baskets. This is exactly why the Lakers lost Game Four in last season's Finals despite the Celtics spotting them a 21-point first quarter lead.

We all know that the Lakers have a creative and fun offense to watch, but when it comes to focusing or locking down opponents defensively, the Lakers are nowhere near what the Celtics are capable of.

It is still too early in the season to tell which team will win, or whether both teams will even make it to the NBA Finals. The Lakers have a lot of potential, and Christmas Day should provide us a glimpse of what both teams are about.  

One thing is for sure: If the Lakers don’t start committing to defense for 48 minutes of every game, there will be a lot of Green at the end of the season, and very little purple and gold.