Packers-Texans Preview

It's been a tough season for the Green Bay Packers. At 5-7, we basically have to win out to make the playoffs. But remember, Mike McCarthy did this with a less talented team in his first year as coach of the Packers.

If we do that, I believe we will win the division. The Vikings have to play the Cardinals, Giants, and Falcons after playing Detroit this week, and it is unlikely they will have their Pro Bowl tackles for all three of those games; they will lose two, and we would hold the tie-break over them because of a better division record. In winning out, we also finish with the same record as the Bears and win the tie-break by virtue of beating them a second time December 22.

That quest begins this week, and on paper at least, it seems this week is the easiest victory of the remaining games to obtain.

The Houston Texans have only one road win, and have been outscored by their opponents by an average of over two points a game, while the Packers have outscored their opponents by an average of over three points per game. The Packers have a +4 turnover margin and the Texans are -8.

But how do the various units match-up? Advantages are valued at +1 (slight) to +4 (huge):

Packers pass offense vs. Texans pass defense: big advantage, Green Bay (+3)

Green Bay ranks 10th in the league with an average of 228.9 yards per game. Houston ranks 21st with 338.4 yards allowed per game. Factor in that teams run the ball more against the Texans in the second half because they are trying to run out the clock, and this advantage is even bigger.

Packers rush offense vs. Texans rush defense: slight advantage, Green Bay (+1)

The Packers rank 18th with 111.4 yards per game, but the rushing attack is on the rise, as it has accumulated 100+ yards in five of the last seven games. The Texans yield an average of 128.8 per game, just 23rd ranked in the league, but because on average teams run more on them in protecting a lead, their rush defense is also better than statistics would indicate.

Texans pass offense vs. Packers pass defense: slight advantage, Houston (+1)

The Texans average 252.4 yards per game, good for fifth in the league. The Packers defense is also ranked fifth in the league, but we saw what that defense was capable of giving up against New Orleans, even if they are a more elite attack than Houston's (best in the league). If this defense doesn't get turnovers, it is not so good, and turnover have been factored in elsewhere.

The bottom line is that I believe the Packers status is a bit inflated by how bad the rush defense is (i.e. teams pass less often because they can be so successful running). Moreover, the only good passing offenses the Packers have faced have been the Saints, Colts, and Cowboys. There have also been only three anemic pass offenses (Minnesota twice and Tennessee), but even the average Carolina passing attack did well.

Texans rush offense vs. Packers rush defense: big advantage, Houston (+3)

The Texans have a potent attack that averages 115.1 yards per game (15th in the league) even though they often cannot afford to keep running the ball late in games. The Packers defense has given up an average of 141.7 yards per game, ranking 27th in the league. While it has done better of late, holding four of the last seven teams under 100 yards, that is misleading: in three cases, teams had to abandon the run because of deficits, and in the other (at New Orleans) they didn't need to run because they were passing at will.

Special Teams and intangibles: slight advantage, Green Bay (+1)

The Packers play better at home, and the Texans struggle on the road. It should be that much harder for them because they are a warm weather team playing in the cold. But Houston has definitely played a tougher schedule, and that means they are better than their record. On the other hand, the Packers are still playing for more than pride.

As for special teams, this is a slight advantage to Houston. Mason Crosby is having a good season kicking for the Packers (22-26 on field goals, with two of those misses being outside of 50 yards) and is good at deep kick-offs, but Kris Brown has only missed two field goals (20-22) and is almost as good at the deep kicks.

Furthermore, the Texans are only -0.5 yards in kick returns compared to their opponents, while the Packers are -4 yards. Meanwhile, the Texans are almost as good in net punting, averaging 2.5 yards better than their opponents, compared to the Packers 3.1 yard advantage. (Disclaimer: net punting is not actually the right term—I took punting average minus opponent punt return average, whereas true net would factor in fair catches and touchbacks.)

Final prediction: Packers 31, Texans 20

This is nowhere near what the analysis says (Packers +1), and the Texans are stronger with and against the run, which is more beneficial in bad weather. But the Packers need this one, and tend to rise to the occasion at home in December. They came into the season with higher expectations and have more talented personnel.

There is no way this one will be easy, and I would not advise anyone betting on an 11-point spread; I just think that will be the final result. I am 8-4 in predicting Packers games so far, predicting four of the seven losses and four of the five wins.