Rangers vs. Cardinals: Why St. Louis Cardinals Lineup Has World Series Advantage

Sometimes it helps to put things in perspective. The Texas Rangers won six more games than the St. Louis Cardinals this year. To listen to the mainstream media, however, you would think it were 60. 

The pronunciations of the Rangers supremacy and the daunting task facing the Cardinals have frankly gotten to the point of ridiculous and then climbed into the realm of hyperbole. The Rangers are picked by nearly everyone to win in anywhere from four to six games. 

They talk about the Rangers and how unbeatable they are since the trade deadline. In fact, the Cardinals are only 1.5 games worse than the Rangers since the trade deadline. How much stock do you want to put in 1.5 games? Or six games, for that matter?

Philadelphia had 102 wins. Milwaukee had 96 wins. Guess what they have in common. 

Rather than do some work and find out why the Cardinals got "hot" at the "right time" and went on to beat the two best records in the NL, announcers have resorted to trite platitudes and lazy logic to explain away what the Red Birds have done. That's just easier than explaining why the Cardinals have done what they have done. 

If you're looking at the World Series, though, you'd be remiss in ignoring that. I'm not remiss. Now, I'll admit I'm a die-hard Cardinals fan and always have been. 

I do try and remain objective, though, and what follows is the best I can do at that. I didn't even originally intend to write this article. I had intended to write a position-by-position preview, but as I was just doing the research I was astounded to notice certain things, namely that the Rangers lineup does not only not have the advantage they are alleged to have, but they are, in fact, at a disadvantage. 

First, I will address some common fallacies in relation to the Cardinals. Then I will address a position-by-position comparison. Finally, I will show that based on the full-season stats, the expected World Series lineup the Cards will be fielding is better (yeah, I said it) than the Rangers. 

Accounting for the Designated Hitter

It's easy to jump to the conclusion—and many have—that because Texas has scored more runs this year means it has the more potent offense. The Rangers scored 855 runs to the Cardinals' 766. Does 89 more runs mean they are a better offense?

Don't be too quick to assume that. The Rangers play with a designated hitter. The Cardinals play with their pitchers hitting. What happens if the Cards have a DH instead of a pitcher swinging the bat?

The average runs scored by an average team in the AL in 2011 was 0.4 runs more than in the NL. That means that the an "average" DH is worth 65 runs. Allen Craig's OPS this year was .917. That's a little better than average (he said facetiously). 

Between their pitchers and their pinch hitters, the Cardinals have produced 96 runs. Now, that's assuming that every time a pinch hitter was used, he was used for the pitcher, but I'm trying to be conservative. 

Now, let's project what the DH would be with the most likely scenario for the DH situation the Cardinals will use in the games played in Texas. Craig will not be the DH—that will be either Lance Berkman (the most likely scenario) or possibly Matt Holliday (who is a better fielder but recovering from an injury).

Projecting Craig's stats to a 162-game schedule, he produces 139 runs, 43 more runs than what the Cards got out of their pitcher and pinch hitters combined. That only starts to tell the story, though. It shows what Craig does do but it doesn't show what the pitchers in turn don't do—namely, get out. 

Without the outs there to kill rallies, the 43 is only the beginning. It also needs to be taken into account that obviously the DH isn't the ninth hitter, so those are going to be more productive at-bats. It's not the difference between Craig getting on base in front of Rafael Furcal, it's Craig getting on in front of Albert Pujols or protective David Freese. 

There's no way to measure those numbers so I won't try, but suffice to say that it would be meaningful. It's not at all hard to see how a DH could make a difference of 75 to 80 runs at minimum. 

Accounting for the Park Factor

Park factor also needs to be taken into account. ESPN shows that Texas' stadium is the friendliest place to hit in the majors, with a park factor of 1.409. By contrast, the Cardinals play in Busch Stadium, which has a park factor of .896, making it the sixth-hardest stadium to hit in the majors. 

Essentially, what that means is that in games the Rangers are playing, the combined score in their home games is 40.9 percent higher than the combined score in their road games, while for the Cardinals the combined score is only 89.6 percent. 

Or, another way of putting it, in a "neutral" ballpark, the Rangers score 561 runs this season at home and the Cardinals score 802 runs. The benefit of Rangers Ballpark in Arlington on Texas hitting has a lot more to do with that "potent" lineup than people realize. There's a reason that Texas' OPS is 83 points higher at home than on the road. There's also a reason that the Cardinals OPS is 40 points higher on the road than at home. 

In fact, DH or not, the Cardinals had a .785 OPS on the road this year, the best of any team in the majors. The Rangers were only seventh, at .740. The Cardinals scored 412 runs on the road, more than any team but the Red Sox. The Rangers only scored 357, ninth-most in the majors.

You'll hear people talk about how teams are "better" at home or "better" on the road. That's silly talk. There might be some difference, but when you're talking about literally a 57 percent difference in runs scored in Arlington versus Busch, then it's not just being "better," it's the design of the park.

Arlington isn't actually smaller than Busch, but there are a number of factors, such as low fences, heat and a design that allows the wind to give a little extra lift to the ball to carry it out. 

When you combine the Park Factor and the DH rule, it's pretty easy to see why that 91-run difference isn't much for evidence. In fact, the reality is that Texas having scored only 91 more runs in spite of having a DH and batting in the friendliest park in the majors probably means more. 

That the Cardinals have scored more on the road than the Rangers in spite not having a DH is compelling proof they actually have a better lineup. If you're not convinced yet, keep reading. 

The "Hot Team" Fallacy

The Cardinals are being routinely described as a team that "got hot" at the right time. It is usually followed by the pronouncement that the team won only 90 games this year, and then reference is made to the 83-win Cardinals that won the World Series back in 2006. 

Be assured, this is not a team that merely "got hot" at the right time. It got healthy, and it got better through trades, but it didn't "get hot." This isn't a team that has played above itself in the postseason, it's a team that played below itself in the regular season. 

There are three major factors that have to do with the actual composition of the team that have a lot to do with how the team is playing, and a lot more than merely "getting hot." This is not a statistical anomaly. This is a team playing up to its potential. 

First, the Cardinals blew saves in a ridiculous 26 games, second-most in the majors. The majority of those came before the trade deadline. Only six came afterwards. If you apply the same save rate that came after the Cards acquired their new bullpen as you do before, the Cardinals only blow 18 saves instead of 26. 

I emphasize new bullpen for a reason. It's literally a different bullpen essentially rebuilt from the ground up. It is frankly, logically irresponsible to factor what players who aren't even on the team anymore did when you're looking at this team and then mention "regression to the mean." What mean? The mean with different pitchers?

Second, the Cardinals have been battling health issues all season long, primarily with their boppers. Albert Pujols, Lance Berkman, Matt Holliday and David Freese are an impressive bunch. Much has been made of the Rangers' big hitters, but the Cardinals actually have more power in their lineup (more on that later).

The problem has been getting everyone in the lineup at the same time. When they are there, though, they are crushing it all season long. When those four players are in the lineup the Cardinals score 5.12 runs per game, 0.6 runs more than when any one of them is missing. 

Third, they added Rafael Furcal and got rid of Colby Rasmus at the trade deadline. That was a huge shot in the arm to the Cardinals defense. Rasmus and Ryan Theriot accounted for the Cardinals' two worst defensive players. 

Jon Jay, who replaced Rasmus, and Furcal are hardly Ozzie Smith and Jim Edmonds, but they are a big improvement. In fact, with Furcal and Jay in the lineup the Cardinals give up .36 fewer runs than when they had Theriot and Jay. 

This isn't rocket science. When you add .6 runs on the offensive end, and take away .36 runs on the defensive end, that's a difference of almost one full run a game in terms of scoring margin.

Couple that with a new bullpen that doesn't give away games like early Christmas presents and you have a team that is structurally better, not merely "hot." 

If you're waiting for some sort of regression to the mean, it isn't going to happen, and just in case you're still not convinced let's keep looking position by position and see who has the advantage.  

Catcher: Yadier Molina, St. Louis and Yorvit Torrealba or Mike Napoli, Texas

This one is a bit tough. While Yadier Molina will be likely to get all the starts for the Cardinals, the Rangers have been starting both Mike Napoli and Yorvit Torrealba. Torrealba has had more regular-season starts and is better defensively. Napoli has had more offensive starts and is better offensively. 

This is not a joke. Torrealba's offense is so bad that when his son was kidnapped they tormented his son by making fun of his batting average. That's pretty bad. 

In reality he's not that bad of a hitter. He had an OPS of .705. During the postseason his OPS has been .750 in the four games he's played. 

Napoli is the opposite extreme and actually leads the Rangers in OPS with 1.047. When he's not catching he will serve as a first baseman or DH. 

In reality he's not that good of a hitter. This is actually a case where a regression to the mean is due and may already be occurring. His BABIP is a high .344, particularly for a player who is not noted for his speed. Since the All-Star it has been .427. Before the All-Star break it was .226. 

So either he got really fast over the All-Star break or he's just gotten some lucky breaks. This is a "hot" streak if there ever was one. In the postseason he has settled down as his OPS is just .779, more in line with his career OPS of .873. 

Molina is another catcher having a career year with the bat. He has an OPS of .814 this year, a slugging percentage of .465 and a batting average of .305. He has slumped during the first two series with a postseason OPS of .675.

He does, however, have a career postseason OPS of .761 and a home run that sent the Cardinals to the World Series on his résumé. 

Whatever you get from Molina's bat is gravy. He is the best defensive catcher in baseball. He is the resident. In fact, based on the Fielding Bible Awards he is the best defensive player at any position in the major leagues. 

His handling of the rotation, his baseball IQ, his absolute gun of an arm that routinely picks people off or catches them stealing—or as is more often the case now—keeps them from even trying make Molina a more valuable commodity than either Napoli or Torrealba. 

However, to protect myself from my admittedly inherent bias being a Cardinals fan of 34 years, I will split the difference. 

Catching Advantage: Texas when Napoli is starting, St. Louis when he's not. We'll go five yards in both directions on this one. 

First Base: Albert Pujols, St Louis and Mitch Moreland, Texas

Arguably the biggest advantage in either lineup is here.

Mitch Moreland of Texas had an OPS of just .758 last season. Moreland has been even worse during the postseason, with just two hits and two walks in 22 plate appearances. 

The Cardinals, on the other hand, offer up arguably the greatest to ever play the position in Albert Pujols. Pujols had real "down" year with an OPS of "only" .906. He made up for it in the postseason though with a .490 BA, a .721 slugging percentage and a 1.211 postseason OPS. 

Putting things in perspective, Pujols' postseason BA is higher than Moreland's postseason OPS. There's a reason Pujols bats third and Moreland bats ninth.  

Fielding-wise, Moreland gave up a minus-four zone runs this year, meaning he cost his team four runs above what an average fielder would. Pujols, by contrast, was a plus-eight, meaning he saved his team eight runs over an average fielder. Pujols is second all time in zone runs as a first baseman, just five behind Keith Hernandez to claim the title as best fielding first baseman in history. 

On both sides of the ball Pujols has a huge advantage, and on top of that, all the intangibles are enormously in his favor. Pujols is in his third World Series and has won three MVP awards. He is the undisputed leader of his team. 

Now, I don't think Moreland is going to start every game for the Rangers, but who are the Rangers going to start there that's better than Pujols both in the field and on the plate? There isn't a player like that in the majors. 

First Base Advantage: Pujols by a mile

Second Base: Skip Schumaker, St Louis and Ian Kinsler, Texas

The Texas Rangers will be playing Ian Kinsler at second base. Kinsler's OPS is .832, and his OPS+ was 117. Kinsler is typically the Rangers' leadoff hitter and he's a good one. He makes pitchers pitch, ensuring the pitcher throws at least four pitches in over 400 of his plate appearances this year.

Kinsler is hitting a slightly better .845 OPS in the postseason. He's a steady, veteran presence in the lineup. 

In addition, Kinsler is a good, but not great, fielder, with plus-10 zone runs this year. He was fourth in both putouts and assists as a second baseman in the American League and had the best range factor of any second baseman in the AL. 

The Cardinals will be answering with an outfielder converted to second baseman in Skip Schumaker. Schumaker had an OPS of .685 this year, lowest in the Cardinals lineup. 

In the postseason Schumaker was excellent in Philadelphia series with a 1.400 OPS, but with only a 10 AB sample size, you can't read a whole lot into that. 

Defensively Schumaker is exactly average offering up zero zone runs this year. His 1.38 RF/9 is pretty average, too. He's not bad, he's not good. 

The decisive advantage here goes to the Rangers. It's not quite on the level of the Cardinals' advantage at 1B with Pujols over Moreland, but it's probably the second-biggest advantage presented by either team. 

Second Base Advantage: Texas by half a mile 

Third Base: David Freese, St. Louis and Adrian Beltre, Texas

Here we have an intriguing conundrum, as we will when we hit the right-field comparison. How do you compare ridiculously hot postseason play with regular-season play? Let's just say I'm giving more weight to the postseason success in spite of the smaller sample size. 

Why? Because postseason isn't just a smattering of games, it's a smattering of critical games. There are just some players who play better in the postseason and David Freese and Nelson Cruz look like those kinds of people. 

For the Rangers, they will be sending out Adrian Beltre, who boasts a beefy .892 OPS during the regular season. However, he only had a .735 OPS during the postseason.

His 14 zone runs were fifth-best in the AL and he has two Gold Gloves in his history. 

David Freese had a .792 OPS in the regular season but then exploded in the postseason. It's not entirely unexpected. Part of the problem was that Freese had an abysmal August due to a bone bruise in his ankle. 

Before August he hit .846. After August he hit .844. During August he hit .624, as he was hampered by an ankle bruise. In other words, at 100 percent, which he obviously is right now, there's not much difference between Freese and Beltre normally. 

In the postseason Freese has been utterly ridiculous. His postseason OPS is 1.335, a full .600 higher than Beltre. That's a huge difference. 

With the postseason he's had, he deserves the advantage here, so Freese gets the edge. 

Third Base Advantage: St. Louis by the distance of an average home run

Shortstop: Rafael Furcal, St. Louis and Elvis Andrus, Texas

Pardon the crudeness here, but to a large degree this is a question of who has the best-smelling flatulence. Neither player is putting in Jose Reyes at the shortstop position. Neither team is looking to the shortstop to carry the offense.

Elvis Andrus will be starting for the Rangers. He had an OPS of .708 in the regular season. In the postseason it fell to .623. That's not very good. I mean, that's really not very good. His fielding was good, though, as he had plus-nine zone runs, third-best in the AL among shortstops. 

On the Cards side, the Red Birds had a notorious defensive situation so they traded for Rafael Furcal. Furcal is not a Gold Glover but he's a huge improvement over Ryan Theriot, who was an average fielding second baseman converted to shortstop. 

Since coming to St. Louis Furcal has saved the Cardinals two runs defensively and projects to a plus-four over a full season. His OPS was .735. His postseason OPS during the postseason of .608 is better than his counterpart's. If you project his numbers with St. Louis to a full season Furcal would have a fairly respectable 22 HR. 

He had been in Los Angeles, one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in the majors. The move to St. Louis has helped put the "pop" back in his bat not so much because of any magical ability, but more because A) he's gotten healthy and B) the park is smaller. 

Neither of these guys is Ozzie Smith with the glove and neither is Jose Reyes or Jimmy Rollins with a bat. It's highly unlikely the difference in the World Series is going to come at the shortstop, though if it does, it's more likely to be from Furcal, either for better or worse.

If it's for the better, it will be a home run or two that he gets during the season. If it's for the worse, it will be the result of an error. Andrus will be more likely to give solid, consistent glove work.  Because the former is more likely than the latter, Furcal gives the Cardinals a slight edge here.

Shortstop Advantage: St. Louis by a yard

Left Field: Matt Holliday, St. Louis and Josh Hamilton, Texas

Last year this wouldn't have even been close as Josh Hamilton was the reigning MVP. This year, Hamilton has struggled with a pulled groin and he hasn't been nearly as effective. Hamilton has seen a 162-point plunge in his OPS as a result of his struggles, sinking to .882 this year. 

His postseason has been even worse than his regular season. His OPS is just .726. By his own admission he's playing at 50 percent. We aren't just comparing Hamilton and Matt Holliday here, we're comparing half of Hamilton and Holliday. 

Defensively, Hamilton is decent but not spectacular. He has saved the Rangers two runs. This has little to do with his injury as it is right on pace with the plus-10 zone runs over his five-year career. 

By comparison, Holliday has a .912 OPS. He also has a higher career OPS, .929 to Hamilton's .909, in case you think I'm just cherry picking the year. Holliday is not having some sort of magical career year, he's doing what he has always done. 

Holliday has out-performed Hamilton in the postseason as well, and by a considerable margin. His OPS on this postseason is .976. 

Holliday is only an average fielder though. His zone run total for the year is a tidy zero. Hamilton enjoys a slight edge there, though it's very slight and it's highly unlikely the difference in the series would be the difference in their gloves. 

Holliday has a higher career OPS, a higher season OPS, a higher postseason OPS and a higher career postseason OPS. How can you not say the Cardinals have the edge here? Yet I have a feeling some people are going to get worked up about this one. 

Left Field Advantage: Cardinals by 38 inches, or one half of Josh Hamilton 

Center Field: Jon Jay, St. Louis and Endy Chavez or Craig Gentry, Texas

The Rangers don't have a steady center fielder, and it's been a juggling act even in the postseason. The reason for that is they don't have a really good answer there. The primary center fielders for the Rangers have been Endy Chavez and Craig Gentry. 

As with the catching situation, Chavez is better offensively while Gentry is better defensively. Chavez saved the Rangers one run in 514.1 innings patrolling the CF while Gentry saved eight in 313. 

Gentry has been lighting things up in the postseason, too, though Chavez was better in the regular season. Gentry's postseason OPS is .900, but that comes with the gargantuan qualifier of just 10 ABs and 13 plate appearances. 

During the regular season Gentry was just .693 and his career OPS is only .620. In other words, as long as he keeps it up, more power to him (sort of literally!) It's unlikely that it will continue though. 

The Cards respond with Jon Jay, the player they felt was worth trading away Colby Rasmus to make time for. He has a better season OPS than either Gentry or Chavez. He's also given up four runs over what an average fielder would do. (Rasmus was even worse with seven.) 

Jay has, for the most part, struggled badly during the postseason. His OPS was .500 during the NLDS and "rocketed" up to .641. If he doesn't improve it's likely there will be a lineup change with Theriot taking over at second, Schumaker moving to LF and Craig moving to CF. 

If Jay hits like he can, the Cardinals can win this battle, but based on how Gentry is playing going in, for now I have to give the advantage to the Rangers.

Center Field Advantage: Texas by the distance of a short leash

Right Field: Allen Craig or Lance Berkman, St. Louis and Nelson Cruz, Texas

It strikes me as a double standard that when discussing David Freese I've heard it followed up with the words "regression to the mean," and when it comes to Nelson Perez it's "unstoppable." Why the two different standards?

Cruz had an OPS of .882 during the regular season. He just got ridiculous in the postseason but it didn't start that way. In the ALDS he he was awful, hitting just .067 and slugging the same. His OPS was .133. 

Then he got uncorked against Detroit, having one of the best ALCS in the history of the majors, clobbering the record of four home runs by two. It wasn't just the dingers, though, it was the timing as two of them were game winners in extra innings. 

The Cardinals will counter with Allen Craig in the games at Texas and with Lance Berkman in the games at home. Berkman had a .959 OPS during the regular season. He's struggled this postseason, though, posting a less-than-pedestrian .683. 

Using the same standard as with Freese, the nod here has to go to Cruz. However, the same is true both ways. 

Right Field Advantage: Texas by the distance of a Nelson Cruz home run 

Designated Hitter: Lance Berkman, St. Louis and Michael Young, Texas

Michael Young has been the Rangers' DH this year. During the regular season he did well enough, putting up an OPS of .854. However, in the regular season he's been awful, and there really is no polite way of saying it. While everyone else has been going ballistic he's posted a .593. 

This is not an anomaly as Young shrank in the postseason last year as well, when he had a postseason OPS of just .619. In 114 plate appearances Young has nearly as many srikeouts (23) as hits (26).

Lance Berkman is the most likely candidate for the Cardinals DH and he's the perfect candidate. He's the least likely to be affected by being on the bench with his affable personality. He's also the worst fielder in the Cardinals outfield and Craig will be better there. 

Berkman has struggled in the postseason as well, but not nearly as badly. He has a better regular-season OPS by more than 100 points with .959 and in the postseason with .683. 

The National League's comeback player of the year has the clear advantage as the DH whether you are using regular, postseason or career stats. 

The Whole Package

Comparing the aggregate slash numbers of the two likely lineups the Cardinals have the advantage (the cumulative numbers were addressed in the first three slides) 

Team	Batting Average	On-Base Percentage	Slugging	OPS
St. Louis	.296	.366	.480	.845
Texas	285	.338	.473	.811

As you can see, the Cardinals not only have the positional advantage at 5.5 positions, they also enjoy the advantage overall with the hitters who are going to be doing the bulk of the hitting. 

This is not just cherry picking stats. I deliberately used the same stat—OPS—across the board because it is the most complete, single stat available. 

This Cardinals team, i.e. the collection of players they are fielding as opposed to those who aren't on the team any longer, is better than people realize. That's why they are in the World Series. They have every bit of the ability to take advantage of the Rangers ballpark that Texas has. 

Furthermore, when you look at the intangibles they have a number of things in their favor. Pujols, Molina and Chris Carpenter have led a team to a World Series win before. That, combined with the youthful exuberance of the likes of David Freeze and the veteran desperation of players like Berkman and Holliday, who are hoping to get their first ring, make for the perfect combination. 

They have a manager that has won not one, but two World Series, and lost a few as well in Tony LaRussa.

This is not a team that "got hot." It's a team that made the right moves at the trade deadline. It's a team that got healthy at the right time. It's a team that gelled around an unlikely wild-card race and overcame adversity every day for a month. 

There's no "regression to the mean" to occur here. This is a part of a "progression to the mean" and it's not going to stop until the Cardinals win their fourth game of the World Series.