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UFC 140 Fight Card: Frank Mir vs. Big Nog II Head-to-Toe Breakdown

Dwight WakabayashiOct 14, 2011

UFC star heavyweights Frank Mir and Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira are set for a rematch this December 10 at UFC 140 at the Air Canada Center in Toronto.

Mir comes in on a nice roll, gaining victories in his last two fights over Mirko Cro Cop and Roy Nelson, respectively. Meanwhile, Nogueira regained some relevancy with his own knockout victory over young lion Brendan Schaub last month in Brazil.

Despite what some people may think or say, a fight between the two aging stars carries some significance in the heavyweight division, as the winner may find himself in a No.1 contender match sometime in 2012, possibly against the winner of Brock Lesnar-Alistair Overeem, or the loser of Cain Velasquez-Junior Dos Santos. Meanwhile, the loser of this fight may never come close again.

The fighters first clashed in 2008 at UFC 89, and the fight and the outcome did not play out how many people thought it would. Heading into that fight, many people had written Mir off and said that he only had a slight chance if the fight hit the ground. Nogueira was seen to have a heavy edge in the stand-up, toughness and experience categories.

In a perfect example of why fights are never fought on paper, Mir came out and dominated Big Nog on the feet with superior boxing footwork and combinations, gaining a shocking TKO victory.

Information came out shortly after the fight saying that Big Nog was suffering from a knee injury and staph infection that did not allow him to be at his best that night.

A healthy Big Nog, combined with the stakes, should provide a very intriguing and exciting rematch.

Here is my head-to-toe breakdown of Mir versus Big Nog II.

Striking

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Striking was the aspect that everyone called wrong in the first fight, as many—if not all—people saw Nogueira holding a distinct advantage on the feet.

That night in 2008 was really Mir's coming-out party in terms of his stand-up game, and he has been at that level since. He knocked out Cheick Kongo and out-pointed Roy Nelson with his footwork, hand combinations and knees.

Mir has now solidified himself as a dangerous all-around fighter and not just the dangerous ground fighter he once was.

Nogueira claims his health is back 100 percent, and his crisp and power striking against Schaub certainly appeared to prove it. He was aggressive and confident, and his punches had the snap and bad intentions that have been expected of him in the past. He also took a few shots in that fight and showed that the old Big Nog chin and heart are not completely finished yet.

This is the aspect of the fight that I am most excited to see. Was Nogueira too hurt in the first meeting, or has Frank Mir's boxing taken that permanent leap up to the best in the world?

Advantage: Mir

Grappling and Jiu-Jitsu

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Both of these men are jiu-jitsu ground fighters at their core and have both made very solid careers out of excelling at that discipline. They are both black-belt credentialed—Nogueira in jiu-jitsu and judo, and Mir in jiu-jitsu—and they have both competed in grappling tournaments and championships at all levels.

Mir, has not had to use much of his grappling in recent fights, but his snap-quick submission skills are the best of any big man in the world, especially from his guard. He has the ability to use his exceptional agility and athleticism for a big man in his transitions, with his quickness usually winning top position. He has also vastly improved his conditioning, which is always key in grappling, and I do see Mir having a slight edge because of it.

Nogueira has been happy to stand up in his fights recently, too, but the 20 submission wins on his record tell you all you need to know. The last time I recall Big Nog displaying his jiu-jitsu was in his epic battle with Randy Couture, where he had Couture locked in a D'arce choke and later an arm triangle, but failed to finish off the legend each time.

In terms of straight knowledge and skill set, these two are a dead heat. The difference will come in athleticism and conditioning.

Advantage: Mir

Wrestling

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Although wrestling is such a huge part of this sport and many fights, it is not going to be in wide display in this one. I do feel like both fighters want to keep this one standing and duke it out to prove a point, so for the wrestling breakdown I had to go to the straight numbers.

According to Fightmetric.com, Mir's wrestling is slightly more significant, as he his numbers are all slightly ahead of Nogeuira's. Mir has a 51-percent takedown accuracy to Big Nog's 33 percent, 44-percent takedown defence to Nog's 37 percent, and on average 3 takedowns per fight to Nog's 1.37.

Numbers like these are sometimes deceiving, but necessary in this case, as neither fighter has really used wrestling to any noticeable difference in recent years.

If looking at a straight strength battle, this one is a wash as well, and the only difference may appear in conditioning if and as the fight goes on.

Advantage: Even

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Intangibles: Health, Hunger and Conditioning

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This fight is a tough one to call on paper. Much tougher than it was the first time, although I called Nogueira in the first meeting, so I can't do much but improve from there.

The key intangibles of this fight are health, motivation and conditioning, and are all really tied in to training camp.

Health

Both fighters are healthy going in, but we are all aware that training camp must be hellish to get yourself in top form for a fight. I see Mir again withstanding the rigours of camp better than Big Nog, due to him being younger and less worn. Come fight night, he will be the healthier of the two.

Hunger

In any fight, the hunger and motivation to succeed is the first and foremost intangible, and there is no question that both of these fighters have much on the line. Mir is motivated to remove all doubt that he is better than Nogueira, motivated to stay in contention for one last shot at the title and big money fights. Nogueira is motivated to redeem his performance of the first fight, and to stay in the UFC and the game, as any fight could be the end for Big Nog and his storied career.

Conditioning

The conditioning intangible is heavily tied to health and at times has shown to be a clear Mir problem. He has definitely improved his dedication to that aspect in recent years, but his fights against Cro Cop and Nelson show that a crack may still be in that armour come fight night. For Nogueira, if he is in good health, conditioning has never been a question for him, and I don't see it being a big factor in this fight.

I will give a slight edge to Nogueira here due to his motivation to even the score with Mir and his performance in the first fight. Is it possible that with one win in his pocket, Mir will take Nogueira lightly and therefore leave the door open for him to lose? I say it is very possible, and it may be deciding factor in this fight.

Advantage: Nogueira

Dwight Wakabayashi is a Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report MMA and correspondent for MMACanada.net.

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