College Football: Each Top 25 Teams' Chance of Making a BCS Game

The BCS (Bowl Championship Series) in college football is one of the most exciting postseasons in sports, and no matter whether you hate the current system or love it, many college football fans around the nation hope that their team makes it into a BCS game at the end of the season.

There are five BCS games at the end of the season—the Rose Bowl, the Allstate Sugar Bowl, the Orange Bowl, the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl and the BCS National Championship game (played on a rotating venue basis).

Each of these contests feature top-tier teams that have either won their respective conference championships or have proved enough to the pollsters, voters and computers to be ranked high enough to be selected for an at-large bid.

If you are not sure and are confused about how a team qualifies for a BCS Bowl Game, here is a quick overview.

Automatic Qualifiers

The top two teams in the regular season BCS poll at the end of the season will play each other in the BCS National Championship game. The BCS rankings are comprised of the USA Today Coaches' Poll, the Harris Poll and the Computer Polls.

There are six conferences whose champions automatically qualify for a BCS bowl game, and they are:

-Atlantic Coast Conference (ACC) - Conference Champion plays in the Orange Bowl

-Big 12 Conference - Conference Champion plays in the Fiesta Bowl

-Big East Conference - Conference Champion is placed in a BCS Bowl but is not obligated to a specific one

-Big Ten Conference - Conference Champion plays in the Rose Bowl

-Pacific 12 Conference - Conference Champion plays in the Rose Bowl

-Southeastern Conference (SEC) - Conference Champion plays in the Sugar Bowl

*It is important to note that if any conference champion from these conferences is in the BCS National Championship, they will be replaced by an at-large selection (to be explained later).

The other automatic qualifiers for BCS Bowl Games are one of the champions of the five other conferences (known as the mid-major conferences because they do not receive an automatic bid to a BCS bowl game).

One of these teams will qualify if they win their respective conferences championship and are ranked in the top 12 in the final BCS poll at the end of the regular season or if they are ranked in the top 16 and are ranked higher than a conference champion from a conference with an automatic bid.

It is important to note that only the highest-ranked team from one of these conferences will be eligible for an automatic bid to a BCS game while the others will be left for the at-large selection process.

Notre Dame is guaranteed an appearance in a BCS bowl game if it is in the top eight of the final BCS poll at the end of the regular season.

At-large Bids

If the BCS is unable to fill all positions in the BCS bowl games by means of automatic qualifiers, the next round goes to the at-large bids, which is a selection process by which the bowls will get to choose the teams (for the most part) that will make an appearance in their games.

A team qualifies for an at-large bid if they have won at least nine regular season games and have finished in the top-14 in the final BCS standings at the end of the regular season.

There cannot be more than two teams from any conference selected to play in a BCS bowl game.

Rose Bowl (Jaunary 2, 2012 - Pasadena, California)

Pac-12 Champion vs. Big Ten Champion

If the champion of these conferences is in the national championship game, they will be replaced by a team with an at-large bid.

Tostitos Fiesta Bowl (January 2, 2012 - Glendale, Arizona)

Big 12 Champion vs. At-large selection/Big East Champion

If the Big 12 Champion is in the national championship game, then they will be replaced by a team with an at-large bid.

All State Sugar Bowl (January 3, 2012 - New Orleans, Louisiana)

SEC Champion vs. At-large selection/Big East Champion

If the SEC Champion is in the national championship game, they will be replaced by a team with an at-large bid.

Discover Orange Bowl (January 4, 2012 - Miami, Florida)

ACC Champion vs. At-large selection/Big East Champion 

If the ACC Champion is in the national championship game, they will be replaced by a team with an at-large bid.

BCS National Championship (January 9, 2012 - New Orleans, Louisiana)

BCS No. 1 vs. BCS No. 2

This year, the BCS National Championship will be played at the same site as the All-State Sugar Bowl and will rotate to the Discover Orange Bowl in Miami during the 2012-2013 season.

Now that you should have a better understanding of what it takes to make it into a BCS bowl game, here are each of the top 25 teams in the USA Today Coaches Poll chances of making it into a BCS game.

*I used the USA Today Coaches Poll because it is more of a factor in determining the final BCS rankings than the AP Top 25 which has no relevance when it comes to BCS bowl games.

25. Penn State Nittany Lions

Conference:

Big Ten - Eligible for Rose Bowl if Big Ten Champion, National Championship, at-large bid

Current 2011 Record:

5-1

Wins:

Indiana State (41-7), Temple (14-10), Eastern Michigan (34-6), Indiana (14-10), Iowa (13-3)

Losses:

No. 3 Alabama (27-11)

Analysis:

Despite having a 5-1 record, Penn State still has a lot of work to do before it proves that it can guarantee itself a BCS berth. Essentially out of the national title picture (barring a collapse unheard of in the sports world), the Nittany Lions' best chance of making a BCS bowl is to work their way through the Big Ten conference and emerge as the champions at the end of the year.

While you may think that with a 5-1 record they may be able to do this, their wins have not been over teams who you would consider to be powerhouses, or for that matter, too good. Penn State almost lost to both Temple and Indiana, teams that they must decisevely win over in order to prove they can navigate through the Big Ten.

Penn State's passing offense ranks 81st, and their rushing offense ranks 53rd—both numbers must be improved upon if they are to contend for a Big Ten title. Despite poor offensive statistics, Penn State has only given up an average of 10.5 points per game, which ranks them third in that category in the nation.

Their final three games of the year will play a huge factor as to whether or not they can make a BCS appearance as they will face No. 14 Nebraska, Ohio State and No. 4 Wisconsin in a row.

Chances of a BCS Bowl Berth:

Highly Unlikely

24. Baylor Bears

Conference:

Big 12 - Eligible for Tostitos Fiesta Bowl if Big 12 champion, national championship, at-large bid

Current 2011 Record:

4-1

Wins:

No. 14 TCU (50-48), Stephen F. Austin (48-0), Rice (56-31), Iowa State (49-26)

Losses:

Kansas State (36-35)

Analysis:

Baylor burst back onto the college football scene with a thrilling win over then No. 14 TCU in Week 1 of the season and has looked pretty good in the rest of their wins as well.

Led by outstanding quarterback Robert Griffin III (who should be considered when thinking about the Heisman trophy), the Baylor Bears have put up gaudy offensive numbers to the tune of 47.6 points per game, which makes them fourth in that category overall in the nation.

Though they did lose a heartbreaker to Kansas State, they have plenty of opportunities to prove that they belong in the nation's elite with games against No. 23 Texas A&M, No. 7 Oklahoma State,  No. 1 Oklahoma and No. 21 Texas.

While they have had amazing play on the offensive side of the ball and should put up a decent fight against these teams, it is not too easy to see Baylor coming out of this schedule undefeated, and they need to do this in order to be able to contend for a BCS bowl game.

Though they still are a factor in the Big 12, a loss to Kansas State showed that the Bears still have weaknesses that will eventually result in more losses as they play teams better than Kansas State in the near future.

Chances of a BCS Bowl Berth:

Highly Unlikely

23. Texas A&M Aggies

Conference:

Big 12 - Eligible for the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl if champion of Big 12, national championship, at-large bid

Current 2011 Record:

3-2

Wins:

Southern Methodist University (46-14), Idaho (37-7), Texas Tech (45-40)

Losses:

No. 7 Oklahoma State (30-29), No. 18 Arkansas (42-38)

Analysis:

Heading into the 2011 season, the Aggies were primed to prove to the nation why they should be considered a national title contender, but after backbreaking losses in consecutive weeks to Oklahoma State and Arkansas, Texas A&M is clinging onto their BCS dreams as they continue to navigate through their Big 12 schedule.

In order to qualify for a BCS bowl game, the Aggies cannot lose another game and also have to emerge out of the Big 12 as the conference champions.

While they still are loaded with talent, losses to Oklahoma State and Arkansas (despite being very close in both of them) have proven that A&M must work on a lot of things before they are able to assert themselves on a national level.

With a date with Cinderella-team Baylor this week, Texas A&M will look to prove that they are still in the race for the Big 12 title.

Wins against Baylor, Oklahoma, Kansas State and Texas could prove huge to this team's hopes of making a BCS impact, but emerging undefeated from that schedule is something that should not happen.

Chances of a BCS Bowl Berth:

Highly Unlikely

22. Houston Cougars

Conference:

Conference USA - Eligible for BCS berth if they receive an at-large bid or rank in the top 14 and are conference champions and the highest-seeded non-AQ team, national championship

Current 2011 Record:

6-0

Wins:

UCLA (38-34), North Texas (48-23), Louisiana Tech (35-34), Georgia State (56-0), UTEP (49-42), East Carolina (56-23)

Losses:

None

Analysis:

The Houston Cougars may be the most confusing team in this year's BCS polls due to the fact that they are undefeated and yet have not looked all that impressive when you consider the opponents that they have been facing.

Case Keenum, now in his sixth year in college due to medical issues, has been the outstanding quarterback that he has always been, and yet, Houston does not seem to be garnering any respect in the polls.

The best team that Houston has played all season was a lowly and rebuilding UCLA team and do not look to have many impressive opponents left on their schedule.

If the Cougars are going to make it into a BCS bowl game, they will have to shore up their defense as well as keep putting up the offensive numbers they have so far.

Chances of a BCS Bowl Berth:

Fairly Unlikely

21. Texas Longhorns

Conference:

Big 12 - Eligible for the Allstate Sugar Bowl if they are conference champions, National Championship, at-large bid

Current 2011 Record:

4-1

Wins:

Rice (34-19), Brigham Young University (17-16), UCLA (49-20), Iowa State (37-14)

Losses:

#3 Oklahoma (55-17)

Analysis:

After the first four games of the season, many people around the country were riding high on Texas once again and thought that they may be able to redeem themselves after an extremely disappointing 2010 campaign.

While they are still in the picture for a BCS bowl game and may still be a very talented team, their game against Oklahoma proved that Texas is not back yet and still has a long way to go before they are considered in the national picture prominently once more.

For the most part they are playing freshmen and sophomores, and while that bodes well for the future, these students are not ready to play at the premier college football level just yet. While they are no doubt talented, they need to gel as a team more and shore up some problems that they have on both offense and defense. 

Texas ranks 74th in passing yards per game, 45th in rushing yards per game, 51st in points per game, and 47th in points given up per game. Though those aren't necessarily bad numbers, they do show that for right now, Texas is still a middle-of-the-pack team.

With contests against Oklahoma State, Kansas State, Baylor, and Texas A&M left on the schedule, there is still time for Texas to make a run at the Big 12 title, but they need a lot to happen in order for this to happen. 

Because of their loss to Oklahoma, they will have to have Oklahoma lose twice and for them to win-out, something that does not seem likely with just how good Oklahoma is playing this year.

Chances of a BCS Bowl Berth:

Highly Unlikely

20. Arizona State Sun Devils

Conference:

Pac-12 - Eligible for the Rose Bowl if they are Pac-12 Champions, National Championship, at-large bid

Current 2011 Record:

5-1

Wins:

UC Davis (48-14), No. 21 Missouri (37-30), No. 23 USC (43-22), Oregon State (35-20), Utah (35-14)

Losses:

Illinois (17-14)

Analysis:

Though most of the attention goes to Arizona States' offense led by QB Brock Osweiler, it is Arizona States' defense that is truly helping them with a run at the Pac-12 championship.

Their defense has been giving up 19.5 points per game, which ranks them 23rd in the nation in that category. With the kind of offense that Arizona State runs (putting up 35.3 points per game), the defense is doing plenty to help the Sun Devils win games. 

Their only loss has come to an improving and very surprising Illinois team who is currently ranked No. 15 in the Coaches Poll. Their biggest win of the season came versus Missouri in an overtime thriller where they won 37-30.

Luckily for Arizona State, most of the toughest part of their schedule is past them, with the exception of a huge game against Oregon this weekend as the Sun Devils will travel to Autzen Stadium in ESPN's featured game of the week.

Even if Arizona State does lose this game, however, they will still be in the passenger's seat in the South Division of the Pac-12 and are the team that is most likely to represent that division in the Pac-12 championship. After Oregon, their toughest opponent may be Washington State, who they should be able to navigate pretty easily.

With USC ineligible for postseason play yet again, it seems as though the Sun Devils will make an appearance at the conference championship game as well as an appearance in the Rose Bowl. This weekend matchup against the Ducks will truly show what kind of team Arizona State is.

Chances of a BCS Bowl Berth:

Slightly Unlikely

19. Michigan State Spartans

Conference:

Big Ten - Eligible for the Rose Bowl if conference champions, national championship, at-large bid

Current 2011 Record:

4-1

Wins:

Youngstown State (28-6), Florida Atlantic (44-0), Central Michigan (45-7), Ohio State (10-7)

Losses:

Notre Dame (31-13)

Analysis:

Michigan State is one of the teams that is going to make the Big Ten a very complicated conference again this year. Though their biggest win is over an Ohio State team that lost too many weapons during the offseason to be considered a serious threat, Michigan State is looking to build off a 2010 season that saw them tied for the conference championship.

With the always reliable Kirk Cousins leading this Spartan squad up and down the field, the main question is whether the Spartans will be able to play with the best teams in the Big Ten this year, as they have had one of the easier schedules in the nation this year.

Their defense, which has only given up 10.9 points per game (third in the nation in that category), will have to keep up its consistent play and shut down the rest of the Big Ten like they took care of Ohio State in an impressive road victory where both teams seemed to struggle at times.

If Michigan State is able to come out on top in its next three games of the season (vs. No. 10 Michigan, vs. No. 4 Wisconsin and at No. 14 Nebraska), then they will be in the driver's seat to make it to a BCS game. However, this road will be a lot tougher than their previous schedule, and with an offense that seems to be off-and-on, it will be very difficult for Michigan State to come out of this schedule unscathed. 

In order to give Kirk Cousins the space and time that he needs to conduct this offense, Michigan State will have to find a way to be more productive on the ground and draw attention away from their air-attack.

Chances of a BCS Bowl Berth:

Fairly Unlikely

18. Kansas State Wildcats

Conference:

Big 12 - Eligible for the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl if they are conference champions, national championship, at-large bid

Current 2011 Record:

5-0

Wins:

Eastern Kentucky (10-7), Kent State (37-0), Miami (FL) (28-24), No. 15 Baylor (36-35), Missouri (24-17)

Losses:

None

Analysis:

After a frightening game to start off the season against Eastern Kentucky, quality victories over Miami (FL), Baylor and Missouri have propelled the Kansas State Wildcats to be one of the sleeper and Cinderella teams of the season.

They are currently tied for first in the Big 12 alongside Oklahoma and Oklahoma State and still have their toughest games ahead of them.

Though they are not the most recognizable team on paper, they have been doing just enough to be considered a dark-horse candidate for a BCS game. Their passing offense only puts up 127 yards per game (115th in the nation), but their rushing offense has been able to account for an average of 208 yards per game, which makes them 26th in the nation in that category.

The Kansas State defense has also impressed with only allowing 15.6 points per game. The biggest key for Kansas State heading into the rest of their Big 12 schedule is whether or not John Hubert can keep up the production that he has been giving the Wildcats so far.

Hubert has rushed for 469 yards on 86 carries, which equates to an average of 5.5 yards per carry. Though he does only have one TD this season, this is mainly because of the abilities of dual-threat QB Collin Klein, who is only one-yard shy of Hubert in rushing statistics and already has seven rushing TDs this year.

Though they do possess a strong running-game, with Oklahoma and Oklahoma State looming on the schedule, the Wildcats will need to solidify a passing-attack in order to distract teams from their powerful running-game.

Collin Klein will have to become more confident as a passer and not make mistakes against their big opponents.

While Kansas State is a great story and one of the most surprising teams of the season, their lack of productivity in the passing game will probably cost them two or three losses.

Chances of a BCS Bowl Berth:

Most Unlikely

17. Virginia Tech Hokies

Conference:

ACC - Eligible for Discover Orange Bowl if they are ACC champions, national championship, at-large bid

Current 2011 Schedule:

5-1

Wins:

Appalachian State (66-13), East Carolina (17-10), Arkansas State (26-7), Marshall (30-10), Miami (FL) (38-35)

Losses:

No.13 Clemson (23-3)

Analysis:

Up until the Clemson game, Virginia Tech looked as though they were going to be the front-runner in the ACC with their strong dual-threat attack as well as their fairly-stout defense.

However, in that Clemson game, they showed that they may not be at a BCS bowl caliber level as they fell flat on their feet at home against a surprisingly good Clemson team.

Logan Thomas has been very impressive at quarterback, but he will need to be much more productive if the Hokies are to rebound and impress voters enough to send the Hokies back up the BCS ranks.

The rest of their schedule is not all that impressive besides a game against another very surprising team in No. 12 Georgia Tech. In order to become eligible for a BCS bowl game, the Hokies will need to keep their offense running at a spectacular pace and have Clemson lose more than one game while also asserting themselves to voters with a big win over Georgia Tech in a couple of weeks.

Though Clemson is a very good team, it is possible that they will slip up on the road and allow Virginia Tech to be back in the race for the ACC Championship at the end of the season.

Chances of a BCS Bowl Berth:

Slightly Unlikely

16. West Virginia Mountaineers

Conference:

Big East - Eligible for BCS Bowl game if conference champion, national championship, at-large bid

Current 2011 Record:

5-1

Wins:

Marshall (34-13), Norfolk State (55-12), Maryland (37-31), Bowling Green (55-10), Connecticut (43-16)

Losses:

No. 2 LSU (47-21)

Analysis:

Though West Virginia's BCS National Championship hopes are pretty much out of the picture now, they are still the front-runners in the Big East to qualify for a BCS bowl game.

Led by outstanding quarterback Geno Smith, the Mountaineers have flourished under Dana Holgorsen's offense and put up gaudy numbers against most of their opponents. The Mountaineers average 40.8 points per game and give up 21.5 points per game—something that will always translate to wins.

The play of Geno Smith has brought the Mountaineers to new heights as they have become a huge passing threat, putting up 380.5 yards in the air on average, which is good for fourth in the nation in that category.

Their only loss came to the now No. 2 team in the nation, LSU, who looks primed to make a run at the National Title.

Despite slipping up against a very good LSU team who may go undefeated, the Mountaineers are still highly likely to navigate through the Big East as the rest of their schedule does not pose too much of a threat to their chances at a BCS Bowl berth.

Chances of a BCS Bowl Berth:

Highly Likely

15. Illinois Fighting Illini

Conference:

Big Ten - Eligible for the Rose Bowl if conference champions, national championship, at-large bid

Current 2011 Record:

6-0

Wins:

Arkansas State (33-15), South Dakota State (56-3), No. 22 Arizona State (17-14), Western Michigan (23-20), Northwestern (38-35), Indiana (41-20)

Losses:

None

Analysis:

For the most part, Illinois has been another one of those teams who has looked impressive in some games, and done just enough in others to get big wins.

While their record is 6-0 and they stand currently at No.15 in the rankings, Illinois could easily be a 3-3 team with losses to Arizona State, Western Michigan and Northwestern. And though Arizona State and Northwestern are pretty good teams, their almost slip-up against Western Michigan is what is most concerning when you look at the rest of their schedule and chances for making a BCS bowl appearance.

The Big Ten may be one of the most confusing conferences of the season, and with games still to play against Michigan and Wisconsin (not to mention this weeks matchup against Ohio State), Illinois will have to dig very deep to be able to pull off one of the most surprising champions of the 2011 college football season.

Contributing to Illinois' 6-0 record has been the play of A.J. Jenkins, who leads the nation in receiving yards at 815 while also accounting for seven receiving TDs. Complementing A.J. Jenkins is his dual-threat QB Nathan Scheelhaase, who is currently ranked second on the team in terms of rushing.

If the Illini are to make a BCS bowl appearance, they will need both Jenkins and Scheelhaase to continue their consistent play as well as develop more of a defensive identity heading into matchups against Michigan and Wisconsin.

Do not overlook Ohio State though, because this will be a game that shows the nation who Illinois really can play with.

Chances of a BCS Bowl Berth:

Fairly Unlikely

14. Nebraska Cornhuskers

Conference:

Big Ten - Eligible for the Rose Bowl if conference champions, national championship, at-large bid

Current 2011 Record:

5-1

Wins:

Chattanooga (40-7), Fresno State (42-29), Washington (51-38), Wyoming (38-14), Ohio State (34-27)

Losses:

No. 7 Wisconsin (48-17)

Analysis:

Nebraska came into this season expecting big things to happen, and for the most part, they have been correct in their thinking.

Taylor Martinez has bounced back from an injury in the Holiday Bowl loss to Washington which required surgery to help lead the Huskers back to national prominence.

His dual-threat abilities have helped Nebraska to achieve the eighth-best rushing attack in the nation, which averages 246.8 yards per game. Complementing Martinez's offensive ability is RB Rex Burkhead who is averaging 5.9 yards per carry and who has also accounted for nine TDs.

The biggest concern for Nebraska this year is uncharacteristically their defense. In the past few seasons, the Nebraska defense has been outstanding, but this year, the team is giving up 27.2 points per game and letting their opponents move up and down the field consistently while failing to make key stops.

This lack of defense was especially prevalent against Wisconsin who crushed Nebraska's title hopes with a 48-17 victory.

Luckily for Nebraska, they are not in the same division within the new-look Big Ten as Wisconsin, or their chances at a BCS Bowl Game would be severely hampered. Though they do have tough games left in Michigan State and Michigan, Nebraska can still reach the Big Ten championship game and either exact revenge against Wisconsin or beat a team that possibly dethroned the Badgers in the Leaders division of the conference.

In order to accomplish this, however, the Nebraska defense will have to improve greatly and establish an identity for itself.

Chances of a BCS Bowl Berth

Slightly Unlikely

13. South Carolina Gamecocks

Conference:

SEC - eligible for the Allstate Sugar Bowl if conference champions, national championship, at-large bid

Current 2011 Record:

5-1

Wins:

East Carolina (56-37), Georgia (45-42), Navy (24-21), Vanderbilt (21-3), Kentucky (54-3)

Losses:

Auburn (16-13)

Analysis:

The Gamecocks have definitely won their fair share of close games in order to stay in the hunt for an SEC title at the midpoint of the season.

Impressive true-sophomore RB Marcus Lattimore has continued to shine on offense and QB Connor Shaw had an outstanding showing against Kentucky, throwing for over 300 yards and four TDs.

After a less-than-impressive first start against East Carolina, a game in which Stephen Garcia replaced him as the starting QB, Shaw has reasserted himself as the starter for South Carolina in a year where this team is just finding ways to win games (except for the Kentucky and Vanderbilt games).

Just like other teams on this list, South Carolina could be looking at a worse record than they have but were able to barely hold on to the win at the end of games. Now that Connor Shaw was able to find a rhythm and establish himself within the South Carolina offense, it seems as though they are now primed for a run at the SEC East title.

The win over Georgia was especially important considering they play in the same division and are both sitting atop the division, with the tiebreaker going to South Carolina.

This is not to say that the Gamecocks are a shoo-in for the SEC Championship because they still have games against both Arkansas and Clemson, dangerous teams that could unseat South Carolina on their road to the SEC championship.

And even if the Gamecocks do reach the SEC Championship, they will have to face (most likely) LSU, Alabama or Arkansas—all extremely dangerous teams.

In order for South Carolina to be able to contend with these teams, they will need Connor Shaw to repeat his performance against Kentucky and continue to have Marcus Lattimore be productive.

Chances of a BCS Bowl Berth:

Slightly Unlikely

12. Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets

Conference:

ACC - eligible for the Discover Orange Bowl if conference champions, national championship, at-large bid

Current 2011 Record:

6-0

Wins:

Western Carolina (43-21), Middle Tennessee (49-21), Kansas (66-24), North Carolina (35-28), North Carolina State (45-35), Maryland (21-16)

Losses:

None

Analysis:

Georgia Tech and their triple-option offense are at it once again. The seemingly unstoppable Yellow Jackets (at least offensively) have been putting up ridiculous numbers, rushing for an average of 360.5 yards per game, which makes them fourth in that category statistically.

The trio of Orwin Smith, David Sims and Tevin Washington have bolstered the Georgia Tech offense and helped to power them over opposing offenses. QB Tevin Washington has also proven that he can throw the ball on key downs in order to give the Yellow Jackets a new dimension to their dangerous offensive attack.

While they have one of the more prominent offenses in the country, the Yellow Jackets defense does need some improvement. The team has been giving up 24.2 points per game, which ranks 53rd in the nation. While their defense did hold Maryland to just 16 points, they have played sporadically at best and will have to improve upon their numbers if they are to get by Virginia Tech and Clemson.

Speaking of those two teams, Georgia Tech still has them on their schedule, and more importantly, Virginia Tech is in the same division as Georgia Tech and will be looking to keep their BCS dreams alive when the play each other.

If the Yellow Jackets do slip up to Clemson, they will still be in contention for an ACC championship game appearance, but their defense will still need to prove itself in this game, or else they will sink back into the middle of the ACC.

Chances of a BCS Bowl Berth:

Slightly Unlikely

11. Arkansas Razorbacks

Conference:

SEC - eligible for All-State Sugar Bowl if conference champions, national championship, at-large bid

Current 2011 Record:

5-1

Wins:

Missouri State (51-7), New Mexico (52-3), Troy (38-28), No.14 Texas A&M (42-38), No.15 Auburn (38-14)

Losses:

No. 3 Alabama (38-14)

Analysis:

Arkansas has what is most likely the toughest path to a BCS bowl game of anybody on this list due to the fact that they play in the SEC West and have already lost a game to somebody within their division.

While Tyler Wilson has played very well, throwing for over 1,700 yards and 12 TDs, Arkansas needs to develop a running game and consistent play from their defense in order to challenge for an SEC title.

Though their defense did improve against Auburn (holding them to only 14 points), Texas A&M and Alabama were both able to put up over 35 points, though Arkansas was able to outduel A&M.

Quality wins against both A&M and Auburn have shown that Arkansas can play against the best of teams and is why they may be eligible at the end of the season to be considered for an at-large bid even if they do not make it into the national championship.

However, this will be even harder as they have already lost to Alabama (who is in their division) and have yet to play LSU (another team in their division). If Arkansas is to have any hope at a SEC title or bowl appearance, they must win the rest of their games (including the game against LSU) and establishing a solid defense.

While this is a possibility, Arkansas still has to play South Carolina, and as mentioned above, LSU. Both of these teams are extremely dangerous and will make Arkansas prove just how well they can play.

Chance of a BCS Bowl Berth:

Slightly Unlikely

10. Michigan Wolverines

Conference:

Big Ten - Eligible for the Rose Bowl, national championship, at-large bid

Current 2011 Record:

6-0

Wins:

Western Michigan (34-10), Notre Dame (35-31), Eastern Michigan (31-3), San Diego State (28-7), Minnesota (58-0), Northwestern (42-24)

Losses:

None

Analysis:

The Big Blue are back and tearing up the Big Ten competition they have so far faced. With each of their Big Ten games won by at least 18 points, including a 58-0 blowout of Minnesota, Michigan is primed to make a run at the Big Ten title and possibly BCS National Championship.

Outstanding QB Denard Robinson is once again shooting up everybody's Heisman list and is helping Brady Hoke solidify his position as a coach for the future of Michigan.

The Wolverines season turned early in their huge win over a Notre Dame team who came into the season with extremely high expectations as well. After a few games against cupcake teams, Michigan proved it can play in the Big Ten with a 42-24 victory over Northwestern.

Though Denard Robinson is absolutely magnificent in extending plays and creating open spaces for him and his fellow Michigan men to run through, questions still remain about what happens when a team is able to stop Michigan's rushing attack. If a team is able to do this, then they will fair far better as Robinson has thrown nine INT to 10 TD, not exactly the best ratio.

Another hamper to put on Michigan's impressive start is that the toughest part of the schedule is just about to start with a road game against in-state Michigan State who will be looking to prove a thing for themselves. After Michigan State and a few teams inbetween, Michigan will have to finish their 2011 campaign at Illinois, vs. Nebraska, and vs. Ohio State, none of them really easy games or games that Michigan is exactly looking towards.

While there will be questions for Michigan entering these games, another huge positive this year has been their defensive play, which has only yielded 12.5 points per game, good enough for 8th in the nation in that category.

With a continuation of their so-far solid defensive effort as well as improved QB passing play from Denard Robinson (limiting his interceptions thrown), Michigan is one of the top contenders for the Big Ten Title and is just on the outside of the National Title picture.

Also do not forget that Michigan has started off very hot in previous seasons and cooled down once teams were able to figure out their offensive strategies. If Denard is limited or taken out, Michigan's season will once again be in jeopardy and possibly destined for another mediocre outcome.

Chances of a BCS Bowl Berth:

Fairly Likely

9. Oregon Ducks

Conference:

Pac 12 - Eligible for the Rose Bowl, National Championship, at-large bid

Current 2011 Record:

4-1

Wins:

Nevada (69-20), Missouri State (56-7), Arizona (56-31), California (43-15)

Losses:

#4 LSU (40-27)

Analysis:

After suffering a season-opening to the then #4 and now #2 team LSU at Cowboy Stadium, the Ducks have bounced back with tremendous effort en route to a 4-1 record heading into another huge matchup on ESPN against the #20 Arizona State Sun Devils.

Crucial to the way Oregon has played these past few weeks has once again been star RB LaMichael James, who has rushed for over 200 yards in his past 3 contests. Behind the legs of LaMichael James and the way QB Darron Thomas is now playing, the Ducks' offense is nearly unstoppable.

In fact, if it wasn't for two costly fumbles by true-freshman superstar DeAnthony Thomas, the Ducks may be looking at a 5-0 record and be in prime position for another National Title appearance.

As it is, however, the Ducks are 4-1 and are now solely focused on a Pac 12 Championship, although they still have an outside shot at the National Championship.

The Oregon offense is putting up points at an average of 50.2 points per game, which is second in the nation in that category and have been unstoppable in their past few games. Unfortuantely for the Ducks, there are still a few questions surrounding their defense, although some of those were answered in a pretty good effort against California.

More questions also rise out of whether LaMichael James will be playing in the near future or not. Though Kenjon Barner and DeAnthony Thomas have impressed this season, James is the driving force behind this offense, and without him, the Ducks will more likely than not have to look to the air more in order to take attention away from Kenjon and DeAnthony.

If the Ducks are able to get past a dangerous Arizona State team, Stanford will be waiting around the bend in one of the biggest Pac 12 (formerly the PAC 10) matchups in conference history.

With LaMichael James back and healthy by this time, look for the Ducks to contend for yet another Pac 12 Championship and be back in the National Title picture come years end.

Chance of a BCS Bowl Berth:

Highly Likely

 

8. Clemson Tigers

Conference:

ACC - Eligible for the Discover Orange Bowl, National Championship, at-large bid

Current 2011 Record:

6-0

Wins:

Troy (43-19), Wofford (35-27), #21 Auburn (38-24), #11 Florida State (35-30), #11 Virginia Tech (23-3), Boston College (36-14)

Losses:

None

Analysis:

The Clemson Tigers are probably the most surprising team to be in the Top-10 at this point in the season, and with the schedule that they have faced, the definitely deserve to be sitting in this position.

After having a few years of irrelevance in the ACC, the Tigers have burst back onto the scene with key victories against Auburn, Florida State, and Virginia Tech, none of those being easy wins at all. Throughout the season, they have shown adversity and overcome obstacles on their way to each victory, and despite looking questionable against Wofford, have immensly impressed analysts and pollsters alike.

The victories over Auburn, Florida State, and Virginia Tech will also pay huge dividends for the Tigers in the Computer Polls which should give them an added boost once the BCS rankings finally come out next week.

For the Tigers, it has largely been the Tajh Boyd show, who has thrown for 1742 yards and 15 TD and we are only halfway through the college football season. Although many Clemson fans were worried when they saw Boyd leave the Boston College game early, all of the news on his injury has been positive and he does not expect to miss any games, which will be very important for Clemson if they want to continue a run at the ACC title and possibly the National Championship.

In Clemson's way are teams such as Georgia Tech with their strong rushing offense, a surprisingly good Wake Forest team, and a South Carolina team who will also be looking to contend for their own conference title.

With continued consistent play from Clemson's defense (only allowing 19.5 points per game) and continued phenomenal play from QB Tajh Boyd as well as a fairly productive running-game, the Tigers will most likely be hoisting up the ACC title at the end of the year, and possibly even be contending for a National Championship given the right circumstances, but first they must get past Georgia Tech and South Carolina.

Chances of a BCS Bowl Berth:

Highly Likely

7. Oklahoma State Cowboys

Conference:

Big 12 - Eligible for Tostitos Fiesta bowl if Conference Champions, National Championship, at-large bid

Current 2011 Record:

5-0

Wins:

Louisiana-Lafayette (61-34), Arizona (37-14), Tulsa (59-33), #8 Texas A&M (30-29), Kansas (70-28)

Losses:

None

Analysis:

Heading into this season, everybody knew that Oklahoma State would have an unbelievable offense, but many did not know just how good they would be after the departure of offensive guru, Dana Holgorsen. It was apparent after the first game of the season that the Oklahoma State Cowboys were not going to skip a beat offensively and were ready for a run at a national title.

Led by Major League draftee turned college football quarterback Brandon Weeden, the Cowboys are 2nd in passing yards per game in the nation (431.2) and are 1st in the nation in points per game (51.4). Justin Blackmon has been looking like the receiver of last year and is still making huge plays when Weeden connects with him.

The Cowboys faced a huge test in Texas A&M and were able squeak by them with a win which propelled them both into the Big 12 Title race as well as the BCS National Championship picture.

In order to achieve either of these, however, the Cowboys will have to play defense during some point of the season. They have allowed 28 points or more in all 5 of their wins, and while they do put up a lot of points, a great team like Oklahoma will be able to expose their defense as well as offense.

The key for Oklahoma State is obviously keeping up their offensive production while also trying to improve their defense. If they are able to improve their defense, they should be able to cruise through the rest of their schedule (even with tests against Texas, Baylor, and Kansas State still in order) to set up a huge matchup at the end of the regular season against Oklahoma.

Even if the Cowboys do lose to Oklahoma in the final game of the season, that may very well be the first game that either of these teams lose and thus will still have them in prime position to be selected as an at-large bid to a BCS Bowl Game dependent upon what bowl game Oklahoma ends up in.

Chances of a BCS Bowl Berth:

Highly Likely 

6. Boise State Broncos

Conference:

Mountain West Conference - Eligible if they win conference and are highest non-AQ team, National Championship, at-large bid

Current 2011 Record:

5-0

Wins:

#21 Georgia (35-21), Toledo (40-15), Tulsa (41-21), Nevada (30-10), Fresno State (57-7)

Losses:

None

Analysis:

Does it really surprise anybody that Boise State is undefeated at this point of this season yet again?

While this is a major accomplishment for any FBS team, it is almost expected of Boise State, especially when they return their Heisman-potential QB Kellen Moore who is campaigning for both a National Championship and Heisman trophy in his final season of his historic run in Boise.

No longer the Cinderella story that they once were, Boise State has evolved into a national powerhouse who can't find enough "quality" opponents to play before conference schedule begins in order to boost their national pull even more.

Though they did win a game against a young Georgia team that has looked somewhat impressive since losing to the Broncos, Boise State does not have any opponents left on the schedule where they can really assert how good they are. You could make a case for the TCU horned frogs, but after the season they have been having, it is hard to say this is true at all.

Boise State will always have to keep a close eye on the various trap games on their schedule and make sure to keep playing the kind of football that they are used to seeing on the Smurf Turf.

If they are able to keep up the offensive and defensive prowess they have been exemplifying in the Mountain West, Boise State should easily be the top seeded non-AQ team to win a conference championship, thus putting them into at least a BCS bowl game. If teams ahead of them do fall (like they can), could this be the year that we finally see Boise State chase their dreams of a national title?

Chance of a BCS Bowl Berth:

Highly Likely

5. Stanford Cardinal

Conference:

Pac-12 Conference - Eligible for Rose Bowl if conference champions, national championship, at-large bid

Current 2011 Record:

5-0

Wins:

San Jose State (57-3), Duke (44-14), Arizona (37-10), UCLA (45-19), Colorado (48-7)

Losses:

None

Analysis:

Led by Heisman front-runner QB Andrew Luck, the Stanford Cardinal have lived up to all of the expectations for their 2011 campaign so far.

Expected to contend for the Pac-12 Championship from the beginning of the season, the Cardinal have blown by opponents and have won by at least 26 points in all of their games, something hardly any team can say they have done. However, a knock on this is that their opponents may not have been the top of the crop, and they will not be able to face a "top-tier" opponent until they play No. 9 Oregon on November 12th.

While teams like Washington and USC are not to be overlooked (especially with the impressive season that Washington is having), those teams will not test nor strain Stanford like the Ducks will be able to. If Stanford is able to beat the Ducks, then they will truly prove why they are a national title contender and deserve to be considered the best team in the nation.

Even if the Cardinal do play the Ducks close and do lose this game, it is still possible for them to make a BCS bowl if Oregon somehow finds a way into the national championship game (though this situation is highly unlikely). 

Back to the Cardinal weapons, Stanford has been both an exemplary team on offense and defense, scoring an average of 46.2 points per game while only giving up a mere 10.6 points per game.

Should the Cardinal be able to repeat this effort against the rest of their opponents, we may see them in the BCS National Championship game.

Chances of a BCS Bowl Berth:

Fairly Likely

*I know that many of you will wonder about why this chance is lower than what I have been giving out in previous slides, but this is because the fact that I believe Oregon will beat Stanford and not make the national championship, thus degrading Stanford's status and making it more unlikely for them to receive an at-large bid to a BCS bowl game.

4. Wisconsin Badgers (1 First-Place Vote)

Conference:

Big Ten - Eligible for Rose Bowl if conference champions, national championship, at-large bid

Current 2011 Record:

5-0 

Wins:

UNLV (51-17), Oregon State (35-0), Northern Illinois (49-7), South Dakota (59-10), No. 8 Nebraska (48-17)

Losses:

None

Analysis:

Everybody knew that Wisconsin was going to challenge for a Big Ten title this year, but nobody knew just how good they would be after the addition of NC State transfer QB Russell Wilson.

Wilson has not only led the Badgers to the fourth-ranked position in the Coaches poll but has also put himself right near the top of the Heisman race and is looking to improve his stock heading into the NFL. Besides Wilson, Monte Ball has been an outstanding running back for the Badgers, giving their offense a dual-threat ability that is helping them blowout their opponents.

In fact, just like Stanford, Wisconsin's closest game was a 48-17 nail-biter *cough* in which they showed the nation just how potent both their offense and defense are. 

In fact, the Wisconsin offense and defense have been so good that they are both ranked third in points per game and points given up per game, a state that is extremely impressive despite the teams that they have played. 

If there is any way to knock Wisconsin, it is for the sole reason that they really have not had a challenging game besides when they played Nebraska, and we still have yet to see just how good Nebraska is and if they can rebound from this loss. 

Due to their consistent play, Wisconsin may have the easiest road to a BCS Bowl Game as the toughest games left on their schedule are Michigan State, Ohio State, and Illinois and those teams do not seem to be on the same level of Wisconsin.

Chance of a BCS Bowl Berth:

Highly Likely

3. Alabama (11 First-Place Votes)

Conference:

SEC - Eligible for the All-State Sugar Bowl if conference champions, national championship, at-large bid

Current 2011 Record:

6-0

Wins:

Kent State (48-7), No. 23 Penn State (27-11), North Texas (41-0), No. 14 Arkansas (38-14), No. 12 Florida (38-10), Vanderbilt (34-0)

Losses:

None

Analysis:

Though Alabama did come into the season with some QB controversy and was not sure who would be their starting quarterback, AJ McCarron has been successful enough to lead the Crimson Tide to an undefeated record at the midway point in the season.

McCarron seems to become more comfortable with the offense on a game-by-game basis and could very well be a big factor towards the end of the season (especially in the game against LSU). Trent Richardson has also continued to play like the player of last year, muscling his way through defenses en route to 729 yards and 11 TDs.

While the Alabama offense has been fairly impressive, it is their defense that will most likely bring them into a BCS Bowl Game. The Alabama defense has only given up an average of seven points per game, which is best for first in the nation.

This number is absolutely ridiculous, and while they are bound to give up more points in the second half of their schedule to better teams, the Crimson Tide defense will be just as stout, leading them to a (more likely than not) undefeated record when they head to play LSU in what could be the biggest game of the college football season.

If the Crimson Tide are able to navigate through the SEC and LSU, they will without-a-doubt be one the favorites for the national championship game.

Chance of a BCS Bowl Berth:

Highly Likely

2. LSU (15 First-Place Votes)

Conference: 

SEC - Eligible for the Allstate Sugar Bowl if conference champions, national championship, at-large bid

Current 2011 Record:

6-0

Wins:

No. 3 Oregon (40-27), Northwestern State (49-3), No. 25 Mississippi State (19-6), No. 16 West Virginia (47-21), Kentucky (35-7), No. 17 Florida (41-11)

Losses:

None

Analysis:

Heading into the season, the LSU Tigers were one of the most hyped teams, but when QB Jordan Jefferson was suspended, many doubted that the Tigers could hold on to their prestigious rankings; that all changed with a Week 1 win against the Oregon Ducks. 

In this game, QB Jarrett Lee showed that he was capable of driving the LSU offense down the field en route to points, and the LSU defense proved why it was one of the best in the nation. After wins against Mississippi State, West Virginia and Florida, LSU is now soaring high above the college football atmosphere and has an SEC Title as well as a national championship in its view.

Tyrann Mathieu has been absolutely ridiculous at corner and has filled the gap and then some that was left by now Arizona Cardinal CB Patrick Peterson. Coupled with an improved rushing attack led by the duo of Spencer Ware and Michael Ford, LSU has two huge games against Alabama and Arkansas in which it must prove itself time and time again.

If LSU is able to handle these teams (especially Alabama in the defensive matchup of the year), then they will be on the fast-track to the national championship and an appearance in the greatest college football bowl game. However, even if they do suffer a loss to Alabama, it is possible for them to still qualify for a BCS bowl game due to the fact that Alabama would probably make it into the national championship if this becomes the case. 

More likely not, we will see the Bayou Bengals and the Mad Hatter in some form of BCS bowl game and don't be surprised if it is in the national championship.

Chances of a BCS Bowl Berth:

Highly Likely

1. Oklahoma Sooners (32 First-Place Votes)

Conference:

Big 12: Eligible for the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl if conference champion, national championship, at-large bid

Current 2011 Record:

5-0

Wins:

Tulsa (47-14), No. 5 Florida State (23-13), Missouri (38-28), Ball State (62-6), No. 11 Texas (55-17)

Losses:

None

Analysis:

Coming into the 2011 season as a preseason favorite, the Oklahoma Sooners have proven just about every voter right as they have succeeded in challenging games to the tune of a 5-0 record, including a 2-0 record against teams ranked in the top 12 (Florida State and Texas).

While most of the attention goes to Landry Jones and their prolific passing offense (which averages 375.6 yards per game—fifth in the nation), the defense has also been outstanding, holding teams to just 15.6 points per game—12th in the nation in this category.

There is not much to be said about the Sooners except for the fact that after the Texas game, they are everything that they have been hyped up to be this year. They are an electric team that will take advantage of every mistake their opponent makes while also playing smart football en route to big wins.

The toughest test left on the schedule for Oklahoma will be an Oklahoma State team that will stress their defense and see just how good their heralded defensive backs unit is. The Sooners must also pay attention to a tough three-game schedule against Kansas State, Texas A&M and Baylor. If they overlook any of these teams, it is easy to see that Oklahoma may just fall victim to another trap game and lose their shot at both a Big 12 title and national championship.

However, with the way that Bob Stoops has the Sooners playing this year, it is hard to imagine them anywhere else but in a BCS Bowl game.

Chances of a BCS Bowl Berth:

Highly Likely