How Paul Pierce, Rajon Rondo and KG Can Contend on Next Year's Boston Celtics

If everything goes right, the Boston Celtics can win the hypothetical 2011-2012 NBA title. The Celtics rarely get a mention in that conversation anymore, as the common wisdom seems to be that they are past their prime and their window of opportunity is closed.

Indeed, the Celtics face some very serious obstacles on the road to contention, but these obstacles can be overcome. Here is how they can do it:

Preconditions

1. The 2011-2012 season happens. (Duh.) In the new CBA, the key features of old free agency, i.e., "Bird rights," are retained. Something like a mid-level exception still exists, even if not at the same salary amount.

2. The 2011-2012 season starts with a delay. Apart from the Mavericks, the Celtics are the team that can benefit most from a delayed season. With a shortened regular season, the Celtics can both maximize their playoff seeding and avoid.

The Model

The NBA, like most leagues, is a copycat league. But if you look at the teams that have truly been successful, you find that they have all come up with a unique blueprint.

For example, the 2007-08 Celtics were the first team to assemble its superstar core in one offseason of trading. In contrast, last year's Mavericks gradually supplemented their one transcendent superstar with veteran supporting pieces. The Lakers of the last two years have been somewhere in the middle.

At this stage, the Celtics are not in position to make a single game-changing move to put themselves back in contention. They do not have the attractive trade pieces to make a move for a difference maker, and both a lack of talent and lack of cap space mean that free agency by itself is not the answer.

The Celtics will have to make their move through a combination of sneaky, low-cost, high-impact acquisitions and the organic improvement of their existing core. This approach will most closely resemble the Mavericks' model, although it would have the (kind of big) caveat that the Celtics don't have a Dirk Nowitzki-type of impact player.

The Specifics

Here is how the plan would work in practice:

1. Re-sign Nenad Krstic, Big Baby, Jeff Green and, if the salary cap allows, Delonte West. Carlos Arroyo and Troy Murphy can be re-signed if they're still around and everything else is in place.

2. Try to dump Jermaine O'Neal's expiring contract, now a valuable commodity, for something productive. This assumes that expiring contracts remain valuable under the new agreement. Specifically, look for either instant offense off the bench at the swing positions, a defensive-minded center, or at least some sort of trade exception.

A sign and trade for a bench scorer is the best possible option. I'm thinking of a guy like J.R. Smith. Of course, beggars can't be choosers and the Celtics are not likely to get a great return here.

3. Look for free agency bargains to bolster the perimeter offense and interior defense on the bench. These would be players signed to whatever exceptions the Celtics can afford.

A few candidates of various price and quality:

- Joel Przybilla

- Jason Collins

- Reggie Evans

- Jason Richardson

- Jason Kapono

- Earl Watson

Not the most attractive bunch, but the Mavericks didn't really have a roster full of sexy household names either.

4. Be active at the trade deadline when looking to fill the aforementioned needs.

Performance

Barring something unforeseen, the Celtics will not enter the season as favorites for contention. If they fill their needs in free agency in a subtle and clever way, they would take a stealthy step forward, but it won't be enough. Ultimately, the Celtics' fate this coming season rests with the core of players currently on the roster.

Here are at least three things that need to happen:

1. At least one of the Purdue duo (Johnson and Moore) needs to have a productive rookie season.

2. The Boston Three Party needs to, at the very least, play at the same level as the first half of last season. The shorter season should help here.

3. Rajon Rondo needs to make a major step up in his game as a scorer. This would improve the Celtics more than any other single thing could.

Results

If all these things happen, can the Celtics compete?

I say yes.

The bottom line is that the East is just not that strong. I don't believe that the Bulls are ready yet for true dominance and the Heat—as exciting and great as they can be—were exposed as having some major holes. The two obvious ones are LeBron's crunch-time performances, the interior, and PG defense. A rejuvenated Celtics team, led by a more polished version of Rajon Rondo, can exploit those holes.