NFL Picks Week 5: 5 Games To Avoid Gambling On

Establishing a favorite to win an NFL game can be relatively simple while placing bets, but fans should be reluctant to ante up on these games in Week 5.

Coming off of a week that saw the Detroit Lions and San Francisco 49ers rally back from double-digit leads in the second half to defeat the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles, the NFL is getting more and more unpredictable these days.

Look at the only two undefeated teams left in the Green Bay Packers—no surprise there—and the Detroit Lions standing atop the NFL ranks. And don't even get me started on the Buffalo Bills defeating the New England Patriots two weeks ago. Four interceptions, Tom Brady? Geesh.

Maybe I'm overly cautious, superstitious or maybe I'm a sportswriter who reads too much into every tiny detail. Regardless of what the case may be, you can't deny the unpredictability level for the NFL this year is a bit higher than the norm. Speaking of out of the norm, how in the world is this Philadelphia Eagles "Dream Team" 1-3?

With matchups this week like the Oakland Raiders taking on an Andre Johnson-less Houston Texans team and a bipolar Chicago Bears squad taking on the comeback machine that is the Lions, are you certain the team you're betting on will pull off the victory?

With the way things have been going this season, these are the games fans should think twice about before placing wages.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Buffalo Bills

I just want to take one moment and say, "Really Philadelphia? Really?" Anytime there's a buzz surrounding a team that's brought in one great free agent after another, it's almost a lock that drama will ensue.

The drama surrounding this team is their current three-game slide and lack of a rush defense. They rank 30th in the league when it comes to stopping the run, and that's unacceptable.

As for the other side of the ball, the offense is there. The Eagles are second in the league in rushing yards and ninth in the league in passing yards.

This next game against the Buffalo Bills is a toss-up because of the way the Bills have played thus far. Ryan Fitzpatrick has played with a coolness and calmness that has become infectious. He's thrown nine touchdowns with only three interceptions so far this year, but I'm a little skeptical of the Bills. After all, they did just lose to the Cincinnati Bengals.

Better avoid picking this game because the Bills could prove to be for real against a reeling Eagles team, or the Eagles could take out their frustrations on an overhyped Bills team.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at San Francisco 49ers

Coming off of a great comeback win against the Eagles, the San Francisco 49ers are starting to build a winning streak.

The 49ers offense has been lacking, but Frank Gore and Kendall Hunter have potential to become a monstrous two-headed beast in the backfield.

Speaking of beasts in the backfield, did you see LeGarrette Blount's performance Monday night? Rumbling, stumbling and bumbling through tacklers, Blount has rushed for 294 yards this season including three touchdowns.

Tampa Bay has put together three wins in a row with one of those coming against their NFC South rival, the Atlanta Falcons. As long as they keep feeding Blount the ball, they should be just fine. But who knows, the 49ers might have another upset boiling in San Francisco.

New York Jets vs. New England Patriots

This is always one of my favorite games of the year, and with the rivalry Rex Ryan and the Patriots have with one another, this game is never a safe bet.

Expect both these teams to pull out all the stops, and expect the Pats to try to extract some revenge after falling to the Jets last year in the playoffs.

This season, the Jets have yet to find their identity. You remember the Rex Ryan-coached Jets that used to ground and pound opponents and smother teams with great defense? I'm still looking for 'em.

The Jets are 27th in the league when it comes to stopping the run and 30th in the league in rushing. Yikes.

As for the Patriots, well Brady is still the man, and this offense is partying like it's 2007. They rank first in the league in passing yards and ninth in rushing yards per game. Ryan better get that defense fixed, and he better get it fixed real fast.

Oakland Raiders vs. Houston Texans

It's time to find out how good this Houston Texans team really is. They have the NFL's leading rusher from a year ago back in Arian Foster, and it's a good thing now that Andre Johnson will miss a couple of games.

The Texans' opponent this week is 2-2 with victories over the New York Jets and Denver Broncos, and they have lost close contests against the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills.

The Oakland Raiders are the best rushing team in the league with an average of 178.8 yards per game. Darren McFadden is leading the pack with an average of 6.2 yards per carry.

The Texans aren't that bad of a rushing team themselves as they're fourth in the league with an average of 148.1. Defensive coordinator Wade Phillips has improved the defense so far this year, but you can expect Run DMC to test that early.

Chicago Bears vs. Detroit Lions

If you're going to place a bet on the 2011 Chicago Bears, be cautious. Odds are this team will screw up or blow opportunities, but can you really ever count them out?

Though this team has struggled tremendously with the offensive line and taking care of Jay Cutler, they still have the makeup to explode on any opponent. Cutler and Matt Forte could easily go off and produce numbers that Bear fans are craving for.

Speaking of Forte, this team would be in a world of trouble if they didn't have him. Forte is averaging 5.4 yards per carry this year, and is the Bears' most dangerous threat.

As for the Lions, well they're undefeated, but they sure haven't made it look easy. They came back to beat the Cowboys last week 34-30 and came back to beat the Minnesota Vikings 26-23 in overtime the previous week.

Do they have another comeback in them? This Lions defense is tough, and Matthew Stafford has played exceptional this year. He's thrown for 11 touchdowns and three interceptions through four games.

Given the unpredictability of the Bears offense, the Lions' previous slow starts and the fact that this football season has been so unpredictable, save your money and avoid picking this coin-flip of a game.