College Football 2011: Week 5 Last Minute Vegas Line Changes and Injuries

Week 5 of my Las Vegas line switches and picks is here.

After storming out of the gate weeks one through three, I've come down a little bit with back-to-back 5-4 weeks. Hey, anything above 52.68 percent is profit!

I was proud of my Clemson pick, who won big at home against Florida State. LSU was the easiest money of the week, and my "lock" of Florida (-20) at Kentucky was a snoozer in a good way.

But Alabama torched Arkansas, something I miscalled. South Carolina's offense didn't score enough to cover against Vanderbilt, and my hesitant support for USC and Notre Dame was met with two defeats. I won't make that mistake again!

I'm at 19-14 for the season. Still a winning season, but I want to improve it this week!

Be sure follow this series each every Saturday morning during the college football season.

Kentucky at No. 1 LSU

This is going to be bad. And when I say bad, I actually mean Bad.

The LSU Tigers proved last week that they do indeed play offense, too. They traveled to West Virginia, pleasantly beat the hell out of the Mountaineers and came home as the top team in the country.

Meanwhile, the Kentucky Wildcats are as bad as they've been in a long time. They lost 41-10 on their home field just a week ago and are certainly a bit disconcerted to travel to Baton Rouge.

Jordan Jefferson is back in the fold for LSU, but Jarrett Lee has done a fine job and will remain the quarterback for Les Miles' squad.

This line opened sky high at -30 and has risen slightly to -30.5. Even with such a large spread, I think the Tigers will cover.

Michigan State at Ohio State

Two teams once ranked in the top 15 have now been ousted and replaced with the meat of the other, more qualified teams. No, I'm not biased.

As a bettor, though, every game is an opportunity, and I see one here. But I want to state now that it's more of a hunch, a feeling. Only the most confident/dumb of bettors should act on this in a big way.

Playing at Ohio State in the Horseshoe is not easy, never has been. They take pride in that field and are 3-0 defending it this year. Meanwhile, Michigan State is 0-1 on the road with an embarrassing loss to Notre Dame.

This feels off. The line opened at Ohio State -3 and has grown to -3.5. I'm feeling the game could be a minor blowout.

No. 13 Clemson at No. 11 Virginia Tech

Game of the week! As an avid SEC fan, it takes a lot for me to call an out-of-conference game the best of the week, but this is definitely it.

Clemson is like a young LSU, full of talent but unsure of what to do with it. The fact that Dabo Sweeney kind of reminds me of Les Miles only serves to build that comparison.

Even with their talent, traveling to a weathered, mature football program like Virginia Tech is not easy. Frank Beamer is sure to sport his signature swooshy pants and jacket, indicating his focus on winning the game. If he dons the VT turtleneck, Clemson will be in big trouble.

Hokie running back David Wilson is one of the most skilled backs in the nation. If only he'd back-flip his way on the field...

The line heavily favors the home-field advantage of Virginia Tech at -7, but I don't think it'll happen. Both teams are healthy and hungry, which means it will be a close game. Virginia Tech wins but by less than seven.

Ball State at No. 2 Oklahoma

In my short career as a professional bettor (meaning I put about $20 a week on the line), I've never seen a football spread this big.

The Oklahoma Sooners are favored at home to beat the Ball State Cardinals by 40 points. Even for a potent offense like Oklahoma, that's a lot of scoring.

Looking at this line, you might think that Ball State is one of the worst schools in the FBS, but that's simply not the case. While they haven't played great competition, the Cardinals are still 3-1, with running back Jahwan Edwards leading the way with over five yards per carry.

If they can get any sense of a running game, they'll be able to hold the ball long enough to prevent the scoring spree that the spread demands.

Like the Virginia Tech-Clemson game, Oklahoma will win, but not by 40.

No. 3 Alabama at No. 12 Florida

It's not often that the game you're most confident in is between two in-conference opponents ranked in the top 12, but that's what it is for me.

The Alabama Crimson Tide made an example out of Arkansas last week, beating them 38-14 in a game that was supposed to stay within two touchdowns. They're clearly in the top tier of teams in the nation. 'Bama already has traveled to and smashed Penn State, so the trip to Florida should be a breeze.

The Florida Gators, while also 4-0, lay claim to their home defeat of an unranked Tennessee team that lost its best offensive weapon on the first drive of the game. That win was only by 10, as well.

Needless to say I'm not at all impressed with the Gators. My Tennessee fandom is totally neutralized since Alabama and Florida are both loathed in the Volunteer State, so I feel comfortable recommending that you hone in on this game.

The line opened at Alabama -4. That spread pushed up slightly to -4.5, but I think it should be far larger. Doug Matthews, ultra-conservative college football analyst, said that he thinks the Tide wins by 14 or even 21, and I agree.

Notre Dame at Purdue

I feel the need to include the Notre Dame Fighting Irish in my predictions each week because everyone else talks about them all the time. But to be honest, I couldn't be less interested or more confused by a team.

Brian Kelly's rage over an 0-2 start turned into a big home win against No. 15 Michigan State. Then, they traveled to Pittsburgh and barely won, though it looks like the Panthers are a bit better than advertised after last night's thrashing of No. 22 USF.

Purdue isn't very good this year, squeaking out a Week 1 win over MTSU 27-24 and following that with a loss to Rice. They went into the bye week with a little momentum after a 59-point thrashing of Southeast Missouri State, but that excitement is sure to have worn off by now.

The line has moved a full two points from Notre Dame -10 to -12. While I think the Irish should cover at any point total below 14, I'm unsure of how they'll play on the road after two lackluster starts. I'm saving my dough.

UCLA at No. 6 Stanford

I've vouched for the Stanford Cardinal and their proud son Andrew Luck this entire season. Everyone knows they're good, but they're getting hardly any hype in the media.

Successful bettors don't use popular sports outlets to diagnose what teams are bet-worthy because if they did, Stanford would hardly ever receive a bet. This week they play host to the UCLA Bruins, a team whose downward trend is exactly opposite of Stanford's upward.

UCLA lost two weeks ago at home to Texas by 29 points, and it is that game that I'm basing much of my prediction on. Stanford is undoubtedly a better team and is playing at home, two advantages over Texas' matchup with UCLA.

Those two facts and Andrew Luck are all I need. I wish I'd gotten on at Stanford -21, where it opened, but its current line of -22 is still solid.

Auburn at No. 10 South Carolina

The honeymoon is over for the Auburn Tigers. They started off this year with a great win over Mississippi State but lost to upstart Clemson the week after. I think they're ready to conform to preseason expectations.

But the South Carolina Gamecocks haven't been unbeatable in 2011, either. It took them the full four quarters to defeat East Carolina in the opening week, some great plays in Week 2 to beat Georgia, grit and determination against Navy in Week 3 and conservative play against Vanderbilt last week.

While their trials and tribulations have made them a bit disappointing, they build character in a veteran team that will vie for the SEC Championship and more by season's end.

The line opened at South Carolina -10 and is now at -10.5. It's time for the Gamecocks to make their move at home and win a big one.

No. 14 Texas A&M at No. 18 Arkansas

Texas A&M is looking to get a taste of their future lives in the SEC when they travel to Cowboys Stadium this Saturday to take on Arkansas. They're being lauded as three point favorites.

Both the Aggies and the Razorbacks are coming off heartbreaking losses from last week. Texas A&M had a 17-point lead at halftime against Oklahoma State but lost it in the second half.

Arkansas went into Tuscaloosa hoping to upset Alabama in a close game but instead were reminded of their relative youth in the upper echelon of the SEC.

Both teams have a lot of aggression to take out on one another and both are highly talented squads. I'm apt to take Arkansas with the three points.

No. 17 Texas at Iowa State

The Texas Longhorns looked like they were going to repeat a terrible 2010 season this year when they squeaked out a one point victory over BYU in their second game. They've righted the ship since then but now travel north to Iowa State.

The Cyclones are also 3-0, with two of their wins coming at home. The point differential of their three games combined, though, is just eight, and it took three overtimes to beat Iowa. They'll have to be even more resilient this Saturday with Texas.

The line has stood firm at Texas -9 all week. They're definitely more talented and with Iowa State's tendency to play too close of games, I think the Longhorns will cover.