NFL Picks Week 4: Which Favorites Are Most Likely to Fall?

Looking for an upset this week in the NFL? There are several candidates, at least using Vegas's lines, that are favorites heading into the weekend but could enter Week 5 on a losing streak.

Here's the best bets for an upset: 

Detroit Lions at Dallas Cowboys (1.5-point favorite)

A 1.5-point line is essentially a toss up, but the visiting Lions have what it takes to go to Dallas and leave a winner. The big key will be protecting Matthew Stafford. The Vikings got pressure on the Lions' young quarterback early and often in the first half last Sunday, and Detroit was shut out through 30 minutes as Minnesota jumped out to a 20-0 lead. Once the protection improved, Stafford tore up the Vikings' secondary. Containing DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer will be big tasks for the Lions, but if they can handle the two pass-rushers, the Lions can beat the Cowboys. 

Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (1-point favorite)

Another toss up here, but it's hard not to like the Titans in this game. Yes, losing Kenny Britt hurts an offense that isn't getting big plays from their expensive running back. But the Titans defense has been suffocating at times, and Matt Hasselbeck is quietly putting together a solid start to his first season in Tennessee. If the Titans can get Chris Johnson going—the Browns have been poor against the run in 2011—they shouldn't have a problem getting to 3-1.  

Pittsburgh Steelers at Houston Texans (3.5-point favorite)

The offensive line concerns are real, but they are still the best defense against the pass in 2011 and have an offensive that has shown flashes of explosiveness. Mike Wallace is going to be tough to handle for the Texans, and he's looking for his fourth straight 100-yard game to start the season. It'll be interesting to watch the 3-4 defense in motion; the Steelers are the masters and the Texans are still in the infancy stage under Wade Phillips. Pittsburgh can certainly go on the road and beat a team that still hasn't established itself in the AFC pecking order.

New England Patriots (4-point favorite) at Oakland Raiders

There will be a lot of people who pick the Raiders to beat the Pats after what we saw from New England's defense against the Bills. And why not? The Patriots are last in the NFL in total defense, and Oakland's Darren McFadden—the NFL's leading rusher—will be looking to add to those woeful numbers. The key will be Jason Campbell. Can he hurt the Pats as badly as Ryan Fitzpatrick did last Sunday? If he's efficient, the Raiders will have a chance. 

New York Jets at Baltimore Ravens (3.5-point favorite)

It's easy to under why the Ravens are the favorites—playing at home, Jets struggling to stop the run—but don't count out Rex Ryan against his former team. There's no doubt that he'll have his Jets ready to go to Baltimore. New York has to be prepared for a heavy dose of Ray Rice, but it will be the quarterbacks who decide this football game. If Mark Sanchez protects the ball and doesn't turn it over, the Jets can win on the road. 

Minnesota Vikings (2-point favorite) at Kansas City Chiefs

Not the sexiest of matchups (understatement), but at least one team isn't going 0-16. The Vikings have blown all three of their double-digit half time leads in 2011, so there has to be an uneasy feeling in that locker room. They can get up on the Chiefs, but how will the Vikings respond if Kansas City starts chipping away at a lead? They've just crumbled in those situations this season. If the Chiefs can keep the Vikings in passing situations throughout the contest, they can win their first game of the 2011 season.