MLB Playoff Predictions 2011: Why the Tigers Will Beat the Yankees

Of the four postseason series that are due to start this weekend, the American League Division Series showdown between the Detroit Tigers and New York Yankees might just be the best of the bunch.

There are a variety of things that support the idea. You have two of the last five American League champs going up against one another, and you also have the AL's best team (Yankees) going up against the AL's hottest team (Tigers).

No matter why you might be looking forward to this series, you get the sense that this is the hardest of the four to predict.

I admit, it's pretty damn hard to look at this matchup, pick a winner and then be absolutely sure you picked the right one.

But after much deliberation, I have decided to pick the Tigers. Allow me to explain why.

The first thing that stands out about this series is the pitching matchup for Game 1 at Yankee Stadium, which is an all-timer. On the hill for the Tigers will be Justin Verlander, a 24-game winner and the clear Cy Young favorite. He will be opposed by CC Sabathia, a 19-game winner and former Cy Young winner.

You really cannot understate how important Game 1 is going to end up being when this series is all said and done. And to be totally honest, the winner of this game is almost as impossible to predict as the winner of the series. But I actually expect the Yankees to take it. They handled Verlander pretty well this year, and I just have a hunch that Sabathia, a relative underdog, is going to get the job done.

Where I start to worry about the Yankees is in Games 2 and 3. Yankees fans are in love with Ivan Nova, and deservedly so, but the Tigers are going to have the advantage when they send Doug Fister to the mound in Game 2.

Not many people noticed, but Fister was the best pitcher in the league in September. He went 5-0 with a microscopic 0.53 ERA, and limited opponents to a mere .127 batting average. Nova has been hot, but Fister has been hotter.

In Game 3, the Yankees will turn to Freddy Garcia. He was surprisingly solid this season, but he's a true feast or famine guy and a walking definition of the word "junkballer." If his junk is up in the zone, he's going to get shelled.

While we're on the subject, the Tigers are a much better offensive team than they get credit for. Miguel Cabrera won the batting title, and Victor Martinez wasn't too far behind him. Next to the two of them, Jhonny Peralta and Alex Avila also have bats that must not be taken lightly.

If the Tigers' pitchers can gain any sort of edge, their bats are going to have enough thump to push the scales in Detroit's favor.

True enough, the exact opposite is true as well. The Yankees can mash with any team in the league, and the Tigers will be categorically doomed if the Yankees' arms prove to be superior.

No doubt you can see why this series is so hard to predict. It's largely a question of which team you believe in.

The reason I believe in the Tigers is because I just can't fathom any situation that involves the Yankees pulling off a sweep. That means they're going to have to face Verlander twice, and they're not going to be lucky enough to beat him twice.

It's going to be close, but I think the Tigers are going to have just enough pitching and just enough offense to advance.

Prediction: Tigers in 5