NFL Picks Week 4: New Orleans Saints and the 3 Favorites to Bet the House on

Ever scan the betting lines for the week and have to do a double take?

“How in the world could this line be so low?”

Well, I did this very action not once, not twice, but three different times this week. After diving into some research, I can confidently say that the following three bets are more than worth a look in Week 4:

(Spreads courtesy of Covers.com)

New Orleans Saints -6.5 at Jacksonville Jaguars

This is a spread Vegas has put too much though in to.

C’mon…this is Drew Brees vs. Blaine Gabbert on a field with no real home-field advantage.

The Saints have covered in every game they’ve played in this year, as the offense looks every bit as good as the one that won the Super Bowl two years ago.

Don’t over think it…pick the team that’ll win by at least 10 points.

Key Trends:

 Jaguars are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.

 Jaguars are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.

Jaguars are 2-9 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

Jaguars are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.

Minnesota Vikings -1.5 at Kansas City Chiefs

 The Vikings have been the best first half team in football, but have yet to put a team away. Against the Chargers, Bucs and Lions, it’s understandable…not against the Chiefs.

 No team in the NFL has less confidence right now than the Chiefs, and they are already chalking up this season as a loss. Nothing is worse in an NFL locker room than hopelessness.

The Vikes need to remember that RB Adrian Peterson is capable of running the ball in the second half to eat up the clock on another Vikes double-digit lead.

Key Trends:

 Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 home games.

 Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games overall.

New York Giants -1 at Arizona Cardinals

 Vegas must think this is a trap game for the G-Men after their emotional victory over the Eagles.

 

I don’t buy it.

The Giants know they have a chance to really separate themselves from the “dream team” by taking care of business against the dregs of the NFC West.

As for Arizona, the team with the 25th ranked pass offense and 26th ranked run defense, they can’t get the necessary stops against an extremely balanced offense.

I anticipate QB Eli Manning throwing the ball all over the field and the Giants front four terrorizing QB Kevin Kolb into multiple turnovers.

Key Trends:

 Giants are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games as a road favorite of 0.5-3.0.

 Road team is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings.

Giants are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games as a road favorite.