NFL Week 4 Picks Against the Spread for Every Game

A quick aside before we get to this week's picks: I doubt if any of you watched UFC 135 last weekend, but it was quite enjoyable, and I say that as a guy who knows nothing about the sport. Naturally, I laid a few friendly wagers at the New York City bar where I and a few friends watched the best MMA has to offer.

In the midst of my flippant betting, I noticed something. In the rough-and-tumble world of mixed martial arts, the guy with more hair than his opponent always seemed to win. Mark Hunt defeated a bloody Ben Rothwell, the bleach-blonde Josh Koscheck topped a thinning Matt Hughes, and the high-and-tight Jon “Bones” Jones knocked out a bald Rampage Jackson. If we call Travis Browne and Rob Broughton a “hair draw,” More Hair finished 3-1-1 over Less Hair, with the lone exception being NATE Diaz’s win over The Guy That May Have Ruined My Entire MMA Betting System. So there’s that.

Obviously, pro football is much more complicated, as evidenced by my 7-8-1 run from a week ago. That puts me at 19-25-4 on the year. But just realize that if you are looking to profit from sports betting (which I would never, ever endorse...publicly), just do the opposite of everything that I do and you’ll be fine.

Detroit +1 over DALLAS

Detriot should be favored here; they’re 3-0 and their quarterback is not Tony Romo. Surely no NFL quarterback has ever been fellated for a zero-touchdown performance the way Romo was after last Monday night’s game against the Redskins. How many botched snaps from shotgun do we need to see from the Cowboys before we realize that they aren’t ready for prime time?

New Orleans -6.5 over JACKSONVILLE

Every time the Saints play a game outdoors, I just feel a little dirty. That probably doesn't count for analysis. My bad.

PHILADELPHIA -7 over San Francisco

Mike Vick says he doesn’t have a broken right hand and that he’s “100 percent” going to play against the 49ers on Sunday, but laying seven points is a lot for a team that struggled against the Giants last week. The Niners boast a voluptuous plus-six turnover margin, and may add to that with their great run-stopping defense.

WASHINGTON over St. Louis (no line)

Are there any "Ram Rules" with regard to unleashing the dragon?

CLEVELAND over Tennessee (no line)

Two games with no line?! Come on, Vegas. Peyton Hillis is expected to play, but the focus here will be on the Titans’ Chris Johnson, who might finally break out of his fantasy slump against the Browns’ weak rushing defense. And with rain expected in Cleveland through Saturday, you also might like under 39 on a wet field.

Buffalo -3 over CINCINNATI
           
The Bengals have had two winning seasons in the last 20 years, so nobody should be surprised when Paul Brown Stadium was half-empty for their home opener last week. Buffalo should roll here, because that’s what you do when you visit Cincinnati.

Minnesota -2 over KANSAS CITY

Give the Vikings credit for taking the Lions to overtime last week. The Chiefs were barely competitive against a division rival at home last week, but still don’t have an answer for the loss of Jamaal Charles. I still think Todd Haley will get fired in two weeks, but those of you that regularly read this picks column know how much credence to give that prediction.

Carolina +6.5 over CHICAGO

The Panthers beat Jacksonville last week for their first win of the season. What’s weird is that their running back tandem of Johnathan Stewart and DeAngelo Williams have been quiet. Could this be the game where Thunder and Lightning re-emerge? The Bears, who are giving up 4.4 yards per carry, would be an ideal opponent to snap that cold streak.

HOUSTON -4.5 over Pittsburgh

Rashard Mendenhall is in a bit of a slump with zero 100-yard rushing games and no touchdowns for the season. For Houston, Arian Foster has been upgraded to probably, a scary notion considering how well Ben Tate and Derrick Ward had filled in for him.

Atlanta -4.5 over SEATTLE

The Falcons got crushed by early scheduling: they’ve already played two teams that made the playoffs last year and one that arguably should have. Seattle, for some reason, still keeps Tarvaris Jackson in gainful employ. He must have naked photos of NFL staffers on his cellphone. That’s the only conceivable reason that he still has a job.

New England -3.5 over OAKLAND

Tom Brady and his new haircut head to the Bay Area. While Jason Campbell has been playing well, he’s not going to light up that suspect Patriot secondary the way Ryan Fitzpatrick did. Plus Bill Belichick’s team hasn’t lost back-to-back games since Thomas Edison hit puberty or something.

ARIZONA +1 over New York Giants

Victor Cruz seems to be filling in well for the injured Mario Manningham, but one is left to wonder if he’ll regress toward the mean this week. All three of Arizona’s games have been decided by a touchdown or less, and this game shouldn’t be any different. Looks for lots of scoring in the air from both teams, and over 44 might suit you if you have trouble staying awake for the 4 o’clock games.

SAN DIEGO -7 over Miami

Philip Rivers will miss Antonio Gates, but not much. Miami’s pass defense is awful, and opposing quarterbacks have surely circled MIAMI on their upcoming schedules. Both teams are prone to turnovers, and I’m sure you’d expect nothing less from a game featuring Chad Henne.

Denver +13 over GREEN BAY

No disrespect to The Assassin here, but both of these teams have played close games so far. Even at home, I don’t expect the Packers to blow out a Broncos team still finding its way under John Fox.

BALTIMORE -3 over New York Jets

I’m so impressed with Baltimore this year. They had a great offseason, one perhaps highlighted by the decision to let Ray Rice be The Man in their backfield. And I love Rex Ryan, but I certainly wouldn’t mind to see him taken down a peg, either. I’m just tired of seeing the same big-market teams on national television each week.

TAMPA BAY -10 over Indianapolis

Andrew Luck gets one step closer to holding up a Colts jersey in April.