New England Patriots: 5 Bold Predictions for Week 4 Rebound Game at Oakland

If the New England Patriots needed any motivation to bounce back from their disappointing 34-31 loss to the Buffalo Bills last Sunday, they received it in the form of Oakland Raiders linebacker Rolando McClain, who called the Patriots "just a finesse team" earlier this week. The use of such bulletin-board material is a well-thumbed chapter of the coaches' handbook, and you can bet that Bill Belichick will be using McClain's comments to stoke a fire under his lackluster defense.

Belichick's methods usually provoke a response in his team following a defeat; in the past eight seasons, the Patriots have only twice suffered consecutive losses (2006, 2009), but he will have to draw on all 37 years of his coaching experience in the NFL to plug the holes in a defense ranked 32nd in yards allowed after three weeks.

Raiders head coach Hue Jackson's stated aim of "building a bully" offers a unique opportunity for this Patriots team to face an old-school, run-first power offense, an examination which the New York Jets failed last Sunday in a 34-24 defeat. Darren McFadden victimized Rex Ryan's defense to the tune of 171 yards and two scores and can lay a claim to potentially being the most exciting player in the NFL right now.

In spite of Oakland's impressive start to the season, I believe this Week 4 matchup presents the Patriots with a great opportunity to get their season back on track with a statement victory. Here are five bold predictions for Sunday's contest.

1) The Raiders Will Rush for Less Than 100 Yards

Hold on. The Oakland Raiders, league rushing leaders with 185 yards per game, suddenly meet their match in the shape of a Patriots defense down on its luck? Well, there are two factors at play here. First, Bill Belichick defensive game plans invariably focus on taking away one target on the opposing offense. For example, in recent memory, tight ends such as Antonio Gates and Tony Gonzalez have been limited by "bracket" coverage, forcing Phillip Rivers and Matt Ryan away from their favourite targets. Last season Adrian Peterson was the focus in Week 8, restricted to 3.7 yards per carry and under 100 yards rushing.

Darren McFadden is clearly the top offensive option for the Raiders and Belichick may counter his explosiveness with a shift in base personnel, having brought back stout defensive tackle Gerard Warren this week who is a fit in the traditional Patriots 3-4 scheme. Running more three-man fronts returns team captain Vince Wilfork to the nose tackle in which he excels, and may introduce other bodies marginalized in the 4-3 alignment such as Jermaine Cunningham and Rob Ninkovich at outside linebacker. 

McFadden's speed will ensure he gets into the game regardless, so the temptation to return to a more familiar base defense must be playing on Belichick's mind this week. This defense won't become the '85 Bears after a team talk and a shift in formation, but the Patriots have on occasion looked capable of stopping the run—the goal-line stand against San Diego, for example. And with no telling how McFadden's groin injury will limit his ability to cut and step this Sunday, the front seven may not have to chase shadows all day after all.

2) Tom Brady Will Throw for 400 Yards, Again

After three games Tom Brady's stats project to a mind-bending 7,077 yards and 58 touchdowns over a full 16 games, so against that backdrop a prediction of 400 yards against the Raiders suddenly seems less bold.

However, consider this statistic: In the 2010 season there were only 11 400-yard passing games in total. Brady already has two in three games, so to keep the trend going would be remarkable. My theory on this is lockout-related; with less time to train and scheme the most talented players have an unfair advantage over the rest of the league. Three pass-rushers are on pace to break Michael Strahan's sack record. Wes Welker would smash Jerry Rice's receiving yard season, while Rob Gronkowski at tight end and Calvin Johnson at wideout have a chance to overtake Randy Moss' 23 receiving touchdowns. Clearly the rest of the league will catch up with the elite, but I am expecting Brady to cash in again before they do.

Finally, three names for you: Kyle Orton, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Mark Sanchez. All three quarterbacks have had statistical success against the Raiders this season and with all respect to the current form of Fitzpatrick, they have yet to face an elite signal-caller with a host of dangerous weapons. Much like the Patriots, the Raiders secondary is banged-up and ranks 28th in pass defense. Brady brings a deep receiving corps to the Coliseum and threw four touchdown passes despite being picked off four times by the Bills. He won't gift the ball to the opposition every week, so the stage is set for another big performance.

3) Denarius Moore Will Lead Both Teams in Passing Yards

I'm expecting the Patriots defense to bounce back in this game, but they won't change substantially overnight. They have given up a host of big plays in the passing game, and fifth-round burner Denarius Moore figures to be the most likely beneficiary. Devin McCourty and Leigh Bodden will have their work cut out if they are asked to persevere with the man-coverage assignments that they have struggled with this year, so unless they revert to the big cushion zone looks associated with the bend-but-don't-break Belichick defenses of recent times, they could find Moore's speed too hot to handle.

I'd be surprised if Deion Branch went two straight weeks without a catch; Brady's assertion that his favourite receiver is the "open" one is valid to a point, but there can be no denying the chemistry he shares with the veteran wideout. The Pats' offense is at its most effective when all active receivers are involved in the passing game, so the recent predictability of Brady targeting Welker every other snap will surely prey on offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien's mind, much like when the ball was regularly forced to Randy Moss early last season. I envisage a scenario where no Patriots receiver goes for 100 yards, on a mixture of dink-and-dunk plays and the occasional long bomb to Matthew Slater.

On a related note, if Chad Ochocinco cannot crack the rotation or hold onto his catches this week, he is done in New England. Expectations were far greater for the ex-Cincinnati Bengals receiver than say, Joey Galloway two seasons ago, but reputation counts for little if Brady has no confidence in his target.

4) The Patriots Will Win the Turnover Battle 3-0

Jason Campbell has been the model game-manager this year, completing 66 percent of his passes and working the low-risk short and intermediate routes effectively. If Brady and company can jump out to an early lead, however, Campbell will be expected to look harder for the down-field big play to Denarius Moore and Darrius Heyward-Bey, which increases the prospect of turnovers.

The Raiders offensive line has excelled in keeping Campbell upright, allowing just two sacks through three games. Look for this trend to continue against the Patriots, who failed to register any significant pass-rush pressure on Ryan Fitzpatrick last Sunday. What would Bill Belichick give to call upon the services of Richard Seymour now? Strip-sacks are off the menu, but a McFadden fumble recovery (one lost at Buffalo in Week 2) is a distinct possibility.

5) The Patriots Will Win by More Than 10 Points

Losing to the Buffalo Bills can be considered a blip rather than a trend for now; the Patriots haven't suddenly become also-rans in the AFC and their offense will keep them competitive all season long.

Tom Brady's relentless air assaults have been backed up by cameo contributions from third-round rookie running back Stevan Ridley, who may begin to replace BenJarvus Green-Ellis as the premier downhill option as the season wears on. If the Raiders have to respect the Patriots running game, they are doomed; Brady has enough weapons at his disposal without having a credible play-action game to draw upon too.

I like the Patriots to bounce back in style this Sunday, taking the Raiders 35-24.