Big 12 Conference: Week 5 Predicitions

Last week could turn out to be very important in determining the Big 12 conference winner.

Both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State got big wins against conference contenders Missouri and Texas A&M. Also, Kansas State got a huge road victory at Miami.

This week will feature three more important conference games. Two of the games feature teams who are off to undefeated starts, but none of those teams were really expected to compete for a conference title.

Baylor at Kansas State is the first of these matchups. It’s intriguing, as we get to see Baylor QB Robert Griffin go up against Arthur Brown and a solid Kansas State defense.

The second matchup is Texas at Iowa State.

This game could tell us a lot about whether Texas is back and ready to contend, or if the team is still a year or two away. Iowa State has gotten off to an undefeated start and has bowl aspirations, so a win against Texas would be big.

I'll preview all of the Big 12 games in Week 5 and give you my predictions.

Texas Tech (-6.5) at Kansas: 11:00am (FSN)

Texas Tech (3-0, 0-0) really struggled last week against Nevada, and part of me wants to pick the upset and take Kansas (2-1, 0-0) at home.

But, their defense has looked really bad this year. I don't think they can slow down Tech's high-powered offense.

Tech averages 338 passing yards per game, and Kansas ranks 102nd in pass defense, so look for QB Seth Doege to have a big game. Doege is completing 77 percent of his passes with 11 touchdowns and 0 interceptions so far this season.

The Jayhawks enter this week with the 17th-ranked rush offense and average 37 points per game. James Sims and Darrian Miller lead the attack, but I don’t expect them to keep up with the Red Raiders.

Prediction: Texas Tech, 42-28

No. 14 Texas A&M (-3) at No. 18 Arkansas: 11:00am (ESPN)

Texas A&M made it official earlier this week that they are going to the SEC, and on Saturday, we will get a preview of future SEC matchups.

Both teams enter Dallas coming off of a loss. Arkansas (3-1) was dominated last week against Alabama, and Texas A&M (2-1) lost a heartbreaking game to Oklahoma State.

Look for Arkansas to come out throwing and try to exploit the Aggies' pass defense like Oklahoma State did. Unfortunately, Arkansas doesn’t have Brandon Weeden or Justin Blackmon, and A&M should be able to contain Arkansas a little bit better this week.

Arkansas’ run defense struggled last week against Alabama, so if I was Texas A&M, I’d give them a steady diet of Cyrus Gray. Gray has only averaged 89 yards per game this season, but he’s capable of much more.

If A&M wants to win this game, it needs to rely more on Gray and less on Tannehill. The Aggies have lost to Arkansas the last two years, but A&M is a better team now than they were in those previous matchups.

I think A&M wins a close one in Dallas.

Prediction: Texas A&M, 28-24

No. 15 Baylor (-3.5) at Kansas State: 2:30pm (ABC)

This is probably the game I'm looking forward to watching the most. Both teams have been surprises so far this season, and I think after Saturday, we'll start separating the pretenders from the contenders.

Both of these teams are undefeated, but they are doing it in different ways.

Baylor (3-0, 0-0) has been winning due to their high-powered offense led by QB Robert Griffin III. Griffin has thrown 13 TDs and 0 INTs, and has quickly risen as a Heisman candidate. Baylor averages 594 yards per game, which is good for 2nd in the nation.

Kansas State (3-0, 0-0), on the other hand, is led by its defense. The Wildcats' defense is ranked 7th nationally, only giving up 10.3 points per game. Miami transfer, Arthur Brown, has been dominant at linebacker and has helped improve K-State's defense drastically over last year.

It's pretty clear that Bill Snyder has things moving in the right direction again at Kansas State.

Unfortunately for Snyder and the Cats, they have not seen a player like Griffin all year, and I don't think Collin Klein and the Wildcat offense will be able to score more than Baylor.

Prediction: Baylor, 31-27

No. 17 Texas (-9.5) at Iowa State: 6:00pm (FX)

Is Texas back? Is Iowa State for real? Another game in the Big 12, where a lot of questions will be answered.

Last year, Iowa State shocked Texas in Austin, and Iowa State has upset wins against Iowa and Connecticut already this year. Once again, the Texas offense is being led by a McCoy and a Shipley. This time, it's Case McCoy and Jaxon Shipley.

McCoy looked pretty good in his first start at UCLA, going 12-for-15 for 168 yards and 2 TDs. Texas (3-0, 0-0) was embarrassed last year against the Cyclones and will have revenge on its mind this weekend.

Iowa State (3-0, 0-0) is undefeated, but none of its three wins have been easy. All three wins have been by four points or less.

The Cyclones do a good job of keeping games close, but they don't have a lot of playmakers on offense. QB Steele Jantz is only completing 57 percent of his passes and has thrown 6 interceptions.

The Cyclones' offense isn't very impressive, and I think they will struggle against a very solid Texas defense. Texas wins this game, but Iowa State will do a decent job of keeping it close.

Prediction: Texas, 31-24

Ball State at No. 2 Oklahoma (-37.5): 6:00pm

Ball State (3-1) is off to a good start, but the team was dominated in its only game against top-25 talent, losing to South Florida in Week 2, 37-7.

QB Keith Wenning is completing 73 percent of his passes and has yet to throw an interception this year. He's only a sophomore, but, at 6'4" and 220 pounds, he's already catching the eye of NFL scouts. I'm interested to see how he performs in a hostile environment like Norman.

Oklahoma (3-0) wasn't overly impressive in its last win against Missouri, but I think Missouri is a lot better than its 2-2 record. Landry Jones has racked up quite a bit of yards this season, but his ratio of five TDs and four INTs isn't what we expected out of the senior quarterback.

The biggest surprise on the Sooners is running back Dominique Whaley. Whaley is a walk-on but has averaged 90 yards per game and has rushed for 5 touchdowns. The biggest weakness for Ball State is its rush defense, so expect a steady dose of Whaley for the Sooners.

Ball State may keep this game closer then expected, but I think Oklahoma is ready to bust out and try to get that No. 1 ranking back.

Prediction: Oklahoma, 45-10