Prince Fielder and the San Francisco Giants: Are They a Perfect Match?

The San Francisco Giants just wrapped up a disappointing season in which they were unable to reach the postseason, one year after winning the World Series. One doesn’t have to be a Giants fan to know that their glaring weakness was their offense.

The Giants will be returning their top four starting pitchers in Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Ryan Vogelsong and Madison Bumgarner, and the bullpen should stay intact for the most part. This offseason they have a significant need at shortstop, center field and first base.

The team is in the best financial situation that it has ever been in and will see approximately $19.8 million come off the books when the season ends with the contracts of Miguel Tejada, Cody Ross, Mark DeRosa and Pat Burrell expiring.

The Giants have six players (including Aaron Rowand) under contract next year whose salaries total $72.4 million, and then they have 10 players who are arbitration-eligible whose 2010 salaries totaled $26.757 million. I would expect that they will attempt to re-sign Carlos Beltran ($20.07 million in 2010) and Javier Lopez ($2.375 million in 2010); both are free agents.

Some of the arbitration-eligible players (Tim Lincecum, Pablo Sandoval, Sergio Romo) are due significant raises (Sandoval $500,000 in 2010 and Romo $450,000 in 2010), while in Lincecum's case, he will have a significant annual salary, as he made $14 million in 2010.

The Giants have spent the last few weeks evaluating what they have in players like Brett Pill and Brandon Belt with an eye toward this upcoming offseason, when they will have options at first base on the free-agent market, specifically Albert Pujols and Prince Fielder.

Giants fans have long salivated for that left-handed, power-hitting first baseman who could consistently launch balls into the San Francisco Bay and strike fear in pitchers by simply standing in the on-deck circle.

A player like that does not come around very often, and it is easy to say that Fielder is the difference-maker that this offensively inept team needs. But does it really? Perhaps not.

The New York Yankees and the Boston Red Sox are likely out of the running for Prince Fielder, as they both have highly paid, franchise-type first basemen on their teams. This may lower the eventual cost for a slugger like Fielder, but not too significantly.

Fielder will be asking for a contract in the area of 10 years and $250 million most likely, and I would venture to guess that he is going to come in somewhere closer to seven years and $175-180 million. That is a significant number of years and a lot of money, even for a player who has demonstrated consistent, game-changing potential throughout his young career.

Fielder will be 28 years old at the beginning of the 2012 season, which would mean that a seven-year deal would take him through his age 34 season. Fielder is a fantastic athlete, obviously. Speculation would lead one to believe that he will be able to sustain pretty consistent numbers over the next three, maybe four years, but that he will start to break down earlier than most because of his sheer size.

He may certainly prove that this is not the case, that he is the exception to the rule, but the Giants are not a team that can gamble with three or four years of questions at $20-25 million per year. That is a risk that is just not worth taking.

It is safe to assume that the Giants' payroll will rise for 2012, even with the perceived uncertainty in the front office. They are finishing off 2011 with a payroll of roughly $130 million. If they truly are in the market to bring back Beltran on a short two- or three-year deal and take into consideration the raises due to key members of the team, the Giants will have to raise their payroll, even if it is $10 million or so.

Fielder would take over first base on the Giants and would mean that they would not have the ability to address center field, right field or shortstop and would be forced to fill those positions from within. If they have seen enough out of Brett Pill and Brandon Belt to feel like those two can provide sufficient offense at first base while making the league minimum for the next couple of years, I feel that is a better option than bringing in Fielder.

The money that they would not spend on Fielder would then be available to bring in a veteran shortstop and leadoff man like Jimmy Rollins on a two- or three-year deal. They would also be able to attempt to bring back Carlos Beltran on a short deal, and suddenly they've addressed three significant concerns from 2011 that will carry over to 2012: leadoff, shortstop and middle of the order run production.

The Giants could have a Gold Glove-caliber shortstop who can hit leadoff, a legitimate middle of the order hitter to go along with Sandoval and Buster Posey in Beltran and two young first basemen who have shown a little bit of what they are capable of and who, I believe, warrant a shot at contributing in 2012 if they do not pursue and sign Fielder.

If Fielder became a Giant, the team would enjoy three to four years of major run production in the middle of their order teamed with Posey and Sandoval. The Giants would be left with slick-fielding shortstop Brandon Crawford, who has proven this year that his bat is significantly behind his glove and is likely a full one or two years away from acceptable major-league production.

The team would still be conducting a leadoff search that currently consists of Andres Torres and Justin Christian and an outfield where Brandon Belt, Brett Pill and Nate Schierholtz would be their best options.

I really believe that the Giants organization is not so concerned with the annual salary of a free agent as much as it is the length of the deal. If the Giants can address their problems with shorter-term deals and avoid the mega deal, they will be better positioned to compete consistently for years to come.