MLB Playoff Picture: Who Should the Red Sox Start If a Play-In Game is Needed?

Not many people are aware of this, but the Boston Red Sox are in a bit of trouble at the moment.

Actually, if you've gone anywhere near a TV or a computer in the last month, you probably know all about it. The Red Sox started September with a nine-game lead in the American League Wild Card race, and they are now tied with the Tampa Bay Rays with two games remaining.

If the Red Sox want to actually avoid the most epic collapse in baseball history, they need to win today and tomorrow against the Baltimore Orioles. Winning back-to-back games is something they haven't done since late August.

Even if the Sox do manage to win their final two games, the possibility exists that they won't be out of the woods quite yet. If the Rays also win their last two games against the New York Yankees, the Sox will have to head to Tropicana Field for a tiebreaker on Thursday.

If the Sox get to that point, they will have to answer one very important question:

Which starting pitcher should they use?

Per Scott Lauber of the Boston Herald, we know that's a decision Terry Francona hasn't made yet. Ideally, it would be Josh Beckett. It won't be him, however, as he just pitched on Monday, and the Sox certainly wouldn't consider bringing him back on two days of rest.

It won't be Jon Lester either. He's pitching on Wednesday, and he will be doing so on just three days of rest.

That leaves Francona two options: either start Tim Wakefield on regular rest, or start John Lackey on three days of rest.

That sound you just heard was from Red Sox fans everywhere slamming their heads on their desks.

Indeed, Wakefield and Lackey are two of the worst starting pitchers in the league, and neither of them have been very reliable in September. Wakefield has an ERA of 5.25, and Lackey has an enormous ERA of 9.13.

Lackey has also had trouble against the Rays this year. In three starts against Tampa Bay, he's managed just 15.1 innings, allowing 21 hits, 11 earned runs and four home runs. In two starts at Tropicana Field, he has an ERA of 8.31.

Wakefield has been a little better against the Rays, compiling a 4.11 ERA against them in two starts. In his one and only start at Tropicana Field, Wakefield went seven innings and gave up just one earned run.

Of course, Wakefield has always done well at Tropicana Field. He's started 20 games there in his career, and has an ERA of 3.29. For whatever reason, his knuckleball tends to be a little extra knuckle-ly there.

Francona could choose to trust Wakefield's track record. The other option at his disposal is to trust Lackey's track record in big games, but that may not be worth the risk of starting him on three days of rest.

Truth be told, I'm glad it's Francona's decision and not mine.

If it was mine, though, I think I would have to go with Wakefield. If you'll pardon the expression, he's the lesser of two evils in this situation, and at least there are numbers that suggest he could do well.

Worth noting is that a start in Tampa Bay could conceivably be the final start of Wakefield's Red Sox career. The only way he would start another game would be if the Red Sox made the playoffs.

No pressure.