Newcastle United Bound for a Relegation Dogfight?

The headline question is deliberately provocative.

I'm sure many Newcastle fans would laugh at the thought of being involved in the relegation scrap as they sit in the relative safety of 12th place, where they have been for most of the season.

When you look at their league record though, and the fixtures to come, it does not appear quite so fantastical to suggest that Newcastle may be set to endure a relegation scrap in the closing months of the season.

Firstly, Newcastle have won only two of their last 16 league games. Yes, just two. That run has included games against Derby, Sunderland, Reading, Bolton and Middlesbrough, none of which were won.

Secondly, Newcastle have won only one of their last eight home league matches. Yes just one, at the supposed "fortress" of St James' Park. Manchester United and Chelsea are yet to even visit the city, so it is fair to assume that more league defeats will follow at home before the season is out.

Now the away form: Newcastle have won only six of their last 31 away games in the Premier League, going back the beginning of 2006-2007 season. Yes, just six. They have taken just eight points on the road this season out of a possible 36.

So just who are Newcastle going to beat in their remaining games? Their next four matches are all against teams in the top half of the table:

Aston Villa (a), Manchester Utd (h), Blackburn (h), Liverpool (a)

I honestly cannot see Newcastle winning any of those games. Blackburn at home is the only one where it may be reasonable to expect a win, but Blackburn are certainly a capable team, and they have won at St James' Park on three of their last four visits.

Newcastle are currently seven points clear of the relegation zone. By the end of those four matches, I expect them to be four points ahead at best, possibly fewer. They then face a trip to Birmingham on Monday, the 17th of March. Birmingham are currently the third from bottom team, so this will be a huge match. Newcastle will follow that up with a home match against Fulham.

These two matches could make or break Newcastle's season.

They face a very difficult run in, with trips to Portsmouth, West Ham, and Everton, as well as the fierce home derby with Sunderland and a home match against Chelsea in their last five games. Before those games, Newcastle need some points in the bag. 

Four wins should secure safety for the Geordies—but if they have not got those wins by 5:00 pm on Saturday 5th April, after they have faced Reading at home, then the thought of Newcastle being relegated will not seem quite so ridiculous after all.