New England Patriots vs. Buffalo Bills: Last-Minute Spread Info and Predictions

The surprising 2-0 Buffalo Bills will host the seemingly unstoppable 2-0 New England Patriots Week 3 in an AFC grudge match for the ages.

It’s been a long time since the Bills were involved in such an extravaganza, but they are looking to continue shocking the world by pulling off one of the greatest upsets in franchise history.

The Bills can make history be dethroning Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and the Patriots for the AFC East lead.

Buffalo selected No. 3 overall in the 2011 draft, but they battled valiantly in nearly every single one of their 2010 contests. Under Chan Gailey’s watchful eye and Ryan Fitzpatrick serving as the field general, the Bills have shown the necessary resilience, grit and talent to make a playoff run this season.

This will be their greatest test of the season and is sure to be blockbuster with a playoff atmosphere.

Where: Ralph Wilson Stadium, Buffalo, N.Y.

When: Sunday, September 25, 1 p.m. EST 

Watch: CBS (check local listings)

Over/Under: Total 54, according to Bodog.com.

It’s difficult to find a more fitting spread for the week. New England and Buffalo have been rolling to start the season. Buffalo averages 39.5 points score and gives up 21.0 per contest. New England averages 36.5 points and gives up 22.5 points per game.

Expect a high-scoring affair as these two put up 68 total points this time last year.

Go with the easiest spread of the weekend and take the over.

Spread: New England -9, according to Bodog.com.

New England is still my AFC favorite to win a spot in the Super Bowl, but I can’t see them blowing out Buffalo on the road. These two teams played last year at this time and the Patriots won 38-30.

This year, Buffalo is leaps and bounds better than last year. Ryan Fitzpatrick is one of the smartest QBs in the league and makes great decisions. Buffalo will have an electric crowd behind them, so take the points.

Key Injuries

New England S Pat Chung is out after undergoing thumb surgery this week.

New England TE Aaron Hernandez is out after undergoing knee surgery this week.

New England C Dan Koppen is out for the season with an ankle injury.

New England DT Albert Haynesworth is out with a back injury.

Buffalo WR Stevie Johnson is probable with a groin injury.

Buffalo WR Roscoe Parris is out for the season with an ankle injury.

Buffalo CB Terrence McGee is out with a hamstring injury.

Buffalo LB Kirk Morrison is out with a hamstring injury.

Fantasy Big Plays

We know about the obvious choices in Tom Brady, Wes Welker, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Fred Jackson and Stevie Johnson. Here are some other big plays that must be in your lineups.

Deion Branch, WR, New England Patriots

Chad Ochocinco has been a major disappointment. We all know about Wes Welker, but Deion Branch will work as Brady’s go-to WR in crunch time as the defense looks to stop Welker. Branch already has 15 receptions and 222 yards this season.

Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots

There isn’t a single better fantasy TE on the planet right now. Brady is using Gronk to power the offense as his primary possession receiver, deep threat and red zone target. The second-year future Pro Bowler already has 10 receptions for 172 yards and three scores.

Scott Chandler, TE, Buffalo Bills

Chandler has been a surprising fantasy stud at TE. He’s no Gronkowski, but he’s been awesome. He’s amassed seven receptions for 77 yards and three scores.

David Nelson, WR, Buffalo Bills

Nelson exploded last week against Oakland with 10 receptions for 83 yards and a touchdown. He will continue working out of the slot, which is heavily targeted in Gailey’s offense. He’s a safe bet to lead the team in receptions.

Keys to a New England Win

The atmosphere in Buffalo will be off the charts. It is imperative Tom Brady and company strike quickly to take the air out of the stadium. If Brady can silence the crowd, the Bills won’t be able to carry their momentum throughout the game. Buffalo needs their crowd to be involved throughout to keep the adrenaline flowing.

Brady is a masterful technician and can dissect any defense in the NFL. He has the ability to score at will, but he can’t let the Bills hang around in this one like they did in their first meeting last year. He must be on point from the opening kickoff to keep the Bills playing from behind with a subdued and restless crowd.

Keys to a Buffalo Win

It is imperative Buffalo controls the clock and the pace of the game with their two-headed rushing monster featuring Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller. If the Bills can control the clock and keep Tom Brady on the sidelines, they will have a puncher’s chance to KO the Pats.

New England’s secondary could take a major hit if Chung is unable to suit up. That means the Pats will be vulnerable over the top. By establishing the ground game early, Fitzpatrick will be able to catch New England off-guard with play-action and exploit their secondary with Stevie Johnson, Donald Jones and David Nelson.

Jackson averages 114.5 yards per game (6.5 yards per carry) and a touchdown through two games.

Prediction

I’d be lying if I said Buffalo didn’t have a chance to win this game. They are one of the most underrated teams in the league dating back to last year when Fitzpatrick took over, which happens to be when these two teams first met in 2010. Fitzpatrick has the poise and accuracy to keep this a close game.

New England wasn’t overly impressive against San Diego and could’ve even lost the game if not for some questionable calls by Norv Turner and a costly fumble by Mike Tolbert. Expect this game to exceed expectations as one of the best games of the season.

In the end, it’s difficult to bet against the 2010 unanimous MVP Brady and Coach of the Year Belichick.

New England, 31-28