NFL Favorites Week 3: Five Safest Bets to Take This Week

Is there such a thing as a "safe bet" when it comes to NFL games anymore?  Not really, but I'm picking the five safest bets in Week 3 of the NFL season.

Thanks to the salary cap and this era of parity, the NFL truly does go by the "any given Sunday" mantra.

For proof, one could just look at the point spreads for this week's NFL games.  Most favorites are only giving up three or four points. 

When you see point spreads that close, it is usually an indication that the odds-makers anticipate the game as being a close one.

Point spreads are the great "evener" for NFL games.  But if you're just picking winners and losers straight up, you can find an upset victory or two almost every week. 

However, here are my five safest picks for this week.  I see them as not only winning the game, but also covering the spread.  Bet them at your own risk!

Kansas City @ San Diego

This is Week 3's safest bet.  The Chiefs look downright horrible so far this season. 

They have scored a total of 10 points between their first two games.  And if scoring points wasn't challenging enough, the Chiefs will now be without their best offensive player in Jamaal Charles.

On the other hand, the Chargers have a pretty good offense and can score on anyone.  Phillip Rivers, Vincent Jackson, Antonio Gates, Ryan Mathews and Mike Tolbert will barely have to break a sweat in this one.

On average, the Chargers are favored by 15 points.  They should easily cover the spread.

Pittsburgh @ Indianapolis

The Steelers over the Colts is just about as much of a safe bet as is the Chargers over the Chiefs.

Pittsburgh was embarrassed by the Ravens on opening day and they took out their frustrations last Sunday by shutting out the Seahawks.  Rest assured, they still aren't satisfied.

The Colts are the next team in the way of a Steelers rampage.

Without Peyton Manning, the Colts are almost as helpless as the Chiefs.  They will be no match for Pittsburgh this week.  The No. 2 ranked Steelers defense is always relentless and Colts QB Kerry Collins still hasn't found his groove yet.

The Colts defense has also given up an average of 30.5 points over the first two weeks.  Look for that trend to continue against a Steelers offense that is a good blend of speed and power.

The point spread for this game has the Steelers at -11.  They should cover this without much issue.

Denver @ Tennessee

This is where things begin to get a little closer.  Even though the Titans are favored in this game, I could see the Broncos stealing a victory.

However, right now the Titans are showing a much-improved passing attack led by new QB Matt Hasselbeck and WR Kenny Britt.

Hasselbeck has thrown for 621 yards and three TDs, all of which to Kenny Britt, during the first two games.  That's good enough to garner the No. 7 ranked passing offense in the league.

The Broncos have the No. 9 ranked passing defense, but that's mainly because teams have been able to run all over them.  Right now, they are ranked 28th against the run and have allowed an average of 131 rush yards per contest.

That means that this could be the week Chris Johnson finally breaks out.

Currently, the Titans are favored by seven points.  I foresee them winning the game, and they should cover the spread as well.

Detroit @ Minnesota

So far in 2011, it appears the Lions have gotten their roar back.  They bring their 2-0 record into Minnesota to take on their 0-2 division rival Vikings.

The Lions have the No. 8 ranked offense and are led by QB Mathew Stafford, stud WR Calvin Johnson, and dynamic running back Jahvid Best.

The Vikings still have the best running back in the league in Adrian Peterson but don't have much going for them beyond that.  Donovan McNabb has been average so far, at best.

The Vikings defense isn't much to squawk about either as they are ranked 21st overall and have allowed an average of 24 points per game through two weeks.  In contrast, the Lions offense has averaged 37.5 points per game in that same span.

The Lions will also field their No. 7 ranked defense against the Vikings' No. 27 ranked offense.

Detroit will also be looking to make some headway in their division before they have to face the Packers and Bears. 

The point spread for this game has the Lions favored by only four points.  Even though division games are usually close, I see the Lions beating the Vikings by at least two scores.

Arizona @ Seattle

Another divisional match-up that will probably be closer than some think. 

With that said, it's hard to ignore the fact that the Seahawks are ranked dead last in the league in total offense.

They've only scored 17 total points and have averaged only 191.5 yards of offense over two weeks.  I still don't know what head coach Pete Carroll was thinking when he went after Tarvaris Jackson.

Jackson hasn't been outright brutal, but for a team that won their division last year, they took a huge step back at the premier position in all of football. 

He also isn't getting any help from an anemic running game that has averaged a paltry 47.5 yards per game.

The Seahawks should have tried harder to get Kevin Kolb, who is now the QB for the Cardinals.

Kolb and Arizona have the 12th ranked passing offense in the league and average 24.5 points per game so far.  Arizona has a decent trio of Kolb, Larry Fitzgerald and Beanie Wells on offense.

Though they're not quite up there with the old Aikman, Irvin, and Smith trio of the mid-late 90's Dallas Cowboys, but they're certainly better than anything Seattle has to offer.

However, what makes this game a little closer is the fact that Seattle's 32nd ranked offense is facing the league's 29th ranked defense.  Not exactly a stellar match-up but it will give the Seahawks more of a chance to put some points on the board.

Plus, Seattle is coming off a humiliating shut-out in Pittsburgh last week.  All players have pride, so they'll be looking to rebound.

That won't be enough, though, to beat Arizona. 

The point spread in this game has the Cards favored by 3.5 points.  Look for them to easily cover.